This weekend's Premier league notes ..............
Nov 22, 2020
Premier League:
Leicester 52-56 19-12
Tottenham 77-50 27-10
Liverpool 85-46 26-17
Southampton 59-51 10-13
Chelsea 64-45 16-10
*Aston Villa 74-62 20-11
Everton 59-60 17-16
Palace 46-69 15-15
Wolverhampton 45-62 10-12
*Man City 58-37 13-13
Arsenal 49-49 13-14
WHU 68-46 11-12
Newcastle 38-74 11-9
*Man Utd 48-52 11-16
Leeds 76-76 16-19
Brighton 63-34 13-12
Fulham 57-67 11-18
WBA 37-70 2-20
*Burnley 35-55 6-10
Sheff Utd 42-71 11-19
Teams are in league table order, with eight rounds played .
* These four teams have only played 7 games.
ITB numbers are alongside each team, BC's are in blue type.
For example, Leicester have created 52 ITB attempts, conceded 56 and have created 19 BC's , giving up 12.
ITB Top 6 (net numbers)
Liverpool +39
Brighton +29
Tottenham +27
West Ham +22
Manchester City +21
Chelsea +19
ITB Bottom 6 (net numbers)
Wolves -17
Burnley -20
Palace -23
Sheffield United -29
WBA -33
Newcastle -36
Top 4 and bottom 4 for net BC's
Tottenham +17
Villa +9
Liverpool +9
Leicester +7
Man Utd -5
Fulham -7
Sheffield United -8
WBA -18
xP:
In terms of expected points it is all very close with only 5 points separating the top 10..............
Liverpool 17 xP
Tottenham 16
Chelsea 15
Leicester 14
Brighton 14
Villa 13
Man City 13
Southampton 13
Arsenal 13
WHU 12
The one team who really stand out on these numbers are Brighton, they are top 5 for xP , top 3 for ITB , only Leeds outside the top 8 have created more BC's and they have been incredibly unlucky to give up 12 of those from only 34 ITB attempts allowed, which is a PL low number and really impressive.
Aston Villa- Brighton
There is no point in spending any time on this, the numbers speak loudly enough for the Seagulls and this feels quite a good match up for them, as, as much as Villa have improved, they have given up the most ITB attempts per game amongst the top 12 and can be too adventurous at times, especially on the flanks where Brighton are strong and the visitors are a modern football team who play quickly "through the thirds" . Albion will also be able to welcome captain Lewis Dunk back into the fold following the central defender’s completion of his three-match suspension (they have not won a league game without him in the team since October 2016).
2 units Brighton level ball 2.43 asian line/Sportmarket.
Tottenham Hotspur- Manchester City
Huge game for Tottenham if they are to be considered genuine title contenders. They have options in all positions and suddenly (it does seem to have happened almost overnight) moved up a level under Jose Mourinho. They have six big forward options and the star names of Kane, Son and Bale (once 100%) give them a fearsome looking offensive and when it all clicks, they are close to unplayable, witness the second half away to Southampton and opening 45 at Old Trafford, United were reduced to ten men after 28 minutes in that, but nothing much would have changed if they had 13 men on the field !
ITB, BC and xP as well as the real table all put Spurs ahead of City currently and this is a game they simply have to take something from. They actually have a great h2h record winning 4/6 h2h meetings as host and we cannot let odds like these pass unbacked.
2 units Tottenham Hotspur +0.25 ball 2.42 asian line/Sportmarket.
Sheffield United- West Ham United
Sheffield united had a dream like return to the Premier league last season and were never in relegation trouble at any stage, spent most of the campaign hovering around the European spots and eventually finished 9th. It has been a rapid and meteoric rise after still being a League 1 side in 2017 , but are now in that almost always difficult second season following promotion, especially when things have gone almost too well in the first and it does feel that maybe it has all caught up with them. The Blades sum was always greater than their parts and they have a head coach who loves the club and for whom the players have (or perhaps had) total belief and would run through a brick wall for, if asked.
They had spent six seasons in the third tier before that 16-17 promotion and quite a few players remain from that time and it is a group with some talent , but a lot of what I would say was more like Championship quality and much of what they have done well in the last 2-3 seasons is down to discipline and being well organised. That can serve you well, but only so far at this elite level, teams at this level will work you out , have seen it all before and United are no longer the surprise package they were early last season. They have a single point from 8 starts and only took 15 from their last 12 games in 19-20 and 16 from 20 outings is bottom 3 level whichever way you look at it and is how they have been playing post lockdown and for more than half a season. They score too few goals, concede too many and this is backed up by their ITB numbers on both sides of the ball and the Hammers are a net +51, creating 26 more, giving up 25 fewer and also allowing opponents 7 fewer BC's. West Ham numbers are good and even more impressive when we see they have played four "Big 6" teams plus Leicester City and Wolves , they have a bench full of players that would probably start every week for the Blades and I have to favour the visitors.
1.75 units West Ham United -0.5 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.
Glossary
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
Good luck !
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