Leverkusen need to bounce back!
Apr 05, 2025
Bundesliga: Heidenheim- Bayer Leverkusen
Last week I wrote .....
The points total required to finish 16th in the Bundesliga is interesting as across the last seven seasons that number is 33-28-31-33-33-33-33 . To hit the magic 33 number would require the bottom three to pick up an additional 14-16 points and that seems unlikely given they are all under 20 from 26 games. However, they have all improved a little recently and teams at the foot of the table very much have a history of doing that in most leagues and especially in the Bundesliga and the trio could drag each other along to some degree.
Heidenheim got three points with a fine 1-0 shock win at Wolfsburg. That has given them a four point buffer over the bottom two, eased pressure and means they can play with some freedom today. They have goals in them, having scored 2+ goals against 5 of the top and also Augsburg and Dortmund. That includes against Bayern and also away to Leverkusen (5-2 defeat).
Bayer need a reaction after their nightmare midweek DFB Pokal defeat to Arminia Bielefeld and their season will be ended today unless they win. They beat Bochum, another bottom 3 team 3-1 last weekend ahead of which I noted ......
The title race is back on after that draw for Bayern just before the break and dramatic win for Bayer at Stuttgart, which was very reminiscent of their free scoring best of last season, when no game was impossible to win/ draw regardless of score or how few minutes were left to play. Leverkusen are hosting relegation strugglers Bochum on Friday evening, so an opportunity to reduce the advantage at the top of the table to three points and put further pressure on the Bavarian giants who have a hectic and season defining six games in 21 days, including two key Champions League ties with Inter Milan which they will need to prioritise.
Only three of Bayer's last 17 Bundesliga wins have come along with a clean sheet and they have conceded in 8 of their last 9 wins here at the Bay Arena. Bochum have scored in 10 of 15 road games, including six in their last three, most recent of which was a scarcely believable 3-2 win at Bayern, so they are unlikely to travel like lambs to the slaughter, but Bayer will be preparing the mint sauce anyway and best value has to be to go with those trends.
Bayer are now seven games without a clean sheet and have conceded 14 goals total and it has to be them to win a 4th h2h meeting in a row with BTS ( 2-1/4-1/5-2).
2.5 units Bayer Leverkusen to win and both teams to score @ 3.16 asian line.
Good luck!
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