Five match previews in today's clubgowi newsletter, three covering English football games and two for the first round of group games in the Champions League, I have posted one of those below, it is perhaps the least interesting of today's previews, in terms of it featuring a big favourite, but the game has caught my attention more for how this might well play out "in running".
UEFA Champions League: Paris Saint Germain-Malmo FF
The visitors have served us very well at Swdbank Arena this season and notes from the win over Celtic in the play off round are reproduced at the foot of this email. However, on the road it is a very different story and they conceded five goals in total away to Red Bull and in Glasgow, last season in their last five away starts in the competion they shipped a whopping 17 goals and not only do they seem incapable of keeping a clean sheet , but even keeping teams down to two, or even three is a big ask and this is amongst the toughest fixtures they have faced . PSG will be motivated to win the group this season after finishing second last year made for a very tough knockout stage last 16 game and whilst they progressed, it took a lot out of them and might have cost them against Barcelona, they will want to do this the easy way and a 2-3 goal win this evening is the minimum I expect.
MFF will be up for this and will give everything, but they ran out of steam late in all three group games last year conceding five goals in the last three mins+ of regulation time and five in the second half to Atletico Madrid. Domestically their defence looks weaker this season and away from their passionate home support, they struggle. Zlatan Ibrahimovic will be facing his home town club and he described the draw as being "beyond a dream" and that he intended to "enjoy every second", he was rested on Friday against Bordeaux and will start tonight, surely he will want to show full respect to his first club and show his very best and I would be surprised if he didn't score at least one and probably two goals. If one of the visiting squad was good enough to even sit on the bench at PSG he would already be living in Paris or at some other top club and there is a huge gulf in class, which will be more obvious in France than it will be in Sweden, especially late in this game .
MFF did hold out for 51 minutes in Austria this season, for 48 in Madrid and almost an hour in Turin against Juventus but the goals still came eventually. It is an option to sit this one out for a bit and wait for odds to rise and if that appeals, I would suggest 1.75 units PSG -2 goals once the line hits 2.0 as long as they are not already leading and we are playing 11 v 11.
Alternatively, I will have to suggest giving up the extra half goal and taking 1.5 units PSG -2.25 goals 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket, I see this as a 2-5 goal margin game and my line would have been closer to 3.
MFF:Johan Wiland, Fredrik Andersson,Anton Tinnerholm, Andreas Vindheim, Carvalho, Kári Árnason, Rasmus Bengtsson, Yoshimar Yotún,Tobias Sana, Guillermo Molins, Magnus Wolff Eikrem, Enock Kofi Adu, Vladimir Rodic, Erdal Rakip, Oscar Lewicki,Jo Inge Berget, Markus Rosenberg, Nikola Djurdjic.
Good Luck.
Malmo FF- Glasgow Celtic (written August 25th)
We backed Malmo to beat Red Bull Salzburg for the second year running at home three weeks ago and they ran out comfortable 3-0 winners which was an exact repeat of their win in the competition last season. However, this time round they still have one more tie to overcome to reached the promised land of the group stage, the value of which we spoke about earlier in the competition ......
all teams competing this week are looking for the holy grail, which in footballing terms is the Champions League group stage. Four of the teams who played at this stage made it through last year......Maribor, Malmo, BATE and Ludogorets, are all looking to repeat that feat and believe me, motivation will be even bigger this time round with a massive jump in prize money on offer, this year, just a spot in the group stage is worth 12m €, winning a match would earn 1.5m € and even a point 0.5m €.
That means you could finish bottom of your group with four points like the Bulgarian side Ludogorets did last year and collect a cool 14m €, that is the real attraction of Champions League football and is the equivalent for the "minnows" ( no offence to any, as they are all big clubs domestically), of Real, Barce or Bayern winning the competition.
MFF have won both home starts since that win over the Austrian giants and will be very pleased with their away goals in the 3-2 defeat at Parkhead , they were weakened in that game by suspensions, including one to striker and capatain Markus Rosenberg (see below), he scored against Red Bull and in both subsequent home games, including a win over league leaders and rivals IFK. He said his side is under no pressure, as expectations are low for Swedish teams, but added: “Having done it once, in your head, it is easier to do it a second time. "There is no pressure but we know what we can do in this stadium and with these fans anything is possible.“We have an extra boost with our fans, we have 20,000 here and it is tight and it gives players energy. "You feel that the fans are beside you.“The players from Salzburg, Sparta Prague, Olympiacos and even Atletico Madrid noticed the intensity. "That is one of the reasons we did so well in the qualifiers.“No one has scored against us here, we have a clean sheen sheet in qualifying last year and this year. "It will be a tough task but we are confident.”
Celtic will come with a more defensive mindset, but this is a dangerous place to sit back and they never play that way domestically, where they are expected to win every game, regardless of venue. This has not helped them in Europe and whilst their road form in the competition has improved a little, it was dire previously and they lost to BOTH Legia Warsaw and Maribor in the Champions League last season, later earning a reprieve against the Polish side. A win of almost any sort will be enough for MFF to progress, they are confident, stronger than for the first leg and I think we will see them on the front foot from the off tonight, with Celtic looking to keep things tight for as long as possible and I favour the home win.
1.5 units Malmo -0.25 ball 2.31 asian line/Sportmarket.
MFF:Johan Wiland, Fredrik Andersson, Anton Tinnerholm, Andreas Vindheim, Kári Árnason, Rasmus Bengtsson, Carvalho, Yoshimar Yotún,Vladimir Rodic, Magnus Wolff Eikrem, Enock Kofi Adu, Oscar Lewicki, Guillermo Molins, Erdal Rakip, Markus Rosenberg, Nikola Djurdjic, Jo Inge Berget, Agon Mehmeti.
