Two of today's ten (!) clubgowi subscriber previews ............
Apr 10, 2021
Premier League: Manchester City-Leeds United
Bundesliga::Stuttgart- Borussia Dortmund
Hanging over City and Dortmund like the Sword of Damocles is the second leg of their Champions League game which is coming up this midweek. It is finely poised with the Sky Blues leading 2-1 and ahead of that first meeting my notes went a lot like this ..................
Ahead of City's weekend trip to Leicester City I wrote ........
Talking of big odds, the reverse fixture helped produced quite possibly the "easiest" 100-1 + winner in history when, back in September I wrote ................. Odds for Leicester City and Hoffenheim to both win are circa 100-1 which seems big given how both games are likely to play out, is no lost cause and a cheap bet !
The Foxes won 5-2 at Manchester City and Hoffenheim won 4-1 over Bayern Munich and 7-1 would have been a fairer result that day and highlights what they are capable of when things click.
I cannot believe that Manchester City have forgotten that defeat, the Champions League is their Holy Grail and all four competitions are still up for grabs, but domestically and certainly in the league, I cannot imagine any remaining fixture means more and that they would like a little of that ice cold revenge. Leicester are a different animal here at the King Power and 34 of their 56 points (60.71%) have come on the road and they have already lost six times as host in the league and we can add in two cup defeats by 2 goals (Arsenal and Slavia Prague) .
Man City have won 25/26 starts (!) and 20 of those victories have come by 2+ goals and if they take the lead today I can see no easing off which we have occasionally seen this season, given how the first meeting played out late .They often do the real damage early, with a 28-8 away goal difference, but within that they are 19-3 between the 16th -60th minutes and 13-2 between the 16th-45th.
That played out ok for us with the league leaders winning 2-0, but the early goals did not come on this occasion.
City have kept four consecutive clean sheets, but they conceded in four straight games here at the Etihad prior to that , six goals total and at least three of those teams are inferior to Dortmund and none have a stand out striker like Erling Haaland, more of whom later.
The last of those games they conceded in was against Southampton in a 5-2 win and ahead of that my very lengthy notes included ...........
After winning 21 games in a row, City finally came unstuck against Manchester United, such is the way of these things, that you beat everyone in sight and then lose to your main rival ! Anyway, it has been coming and City have now conceded in each of their last three home starts and I think the best value this evening is for them to do so again. Southampton have actually scored on 9 of their last 10 trips to the Etihad, including the last six, scoring exactly one goal eight times and twice on the other occasion, also losing nine (there was a 1-1 draw) , three games ended 3-1 and I see that as the most likely outcome this evening.
Saints won that 2-0, KWP, Diallo and Minamino all returned and I thought they played well, I know it was "only" Sheffield United, but the result was never in doubt and more importantly, it looked and felt more like the Southampton we saw until New Year, a team full of energy. The win came at a cost as top scorer Danny Ings picked up an injury which will keep him out for a couple of games, but Che Adams has the chance to step in and continue to impress, after putting in a great high energy performance at Bramall Lane, chasing everything down and scoring a fantastic goal. Nathan Tella also gives them a lot of pace up top, which I still feel City are very vulnerable to. KWP and Diallo are vital to how Saints set up and when they are in the starting 11, we can usually expect to see the best of the visitors.
The two highlighted lines show what troubles City, opponents who are not scared of them, can play with energy and press and who have the pace to trouble the Sky Blues backline. Dortmund fit the bill and they have arguably the best young striker in Europe in Erling Haaland, who is a fearless player and has the key attribute of seeming to play better, the stronger the opposition, he has scored 77 goals in 72 games over the last two seasons which is little short of sensational, but which pales in comparison to his Champions League record of 20 in just 14 appearances, that's 1.43 goals pg and one every 54 minutes he has been on the pitch !
All the big European teams know the value of an away goal and Dortmund are no exception and their chance of progressing in this tie, kind of begins and ends with them scoring at least once this evening. Home or away seems to come all the same for City, especially as they will not have to face the crazy noisy home crowd in Dortmund they would have in different times, but this means so much to the Premier League champions elect that they might put themselves under increased pressure. City could win the domestic treble this season and come up short in the CL and the campaign will still be seen as a little disappointing and they probably need that early goal which usually comes, just to settle down and play their natural game.
I expect City to win, both teams to score with Haaland claiming a goal.
No goal for Haaland but everything else played out as it should.
City look good for the Premier League title regardless of what happens this lunchtime, but just have the winning habit now and it is easier to continue to do so, than a stop /start approach, so difficult to see any let up today.
Leeds have the formation and personnel to do well against City and ahead of the reverse fixture I spoke about United and how they play under Marcelo Bielsa.
Leeds have hit the ground running and scored seven goals in two Premier League starts, an impressive 4-3 defeat at Anfield and demolition of Fulham who also came up from the Championship along with United. The visitors were the best team in each of the last two Championship campaigns and were deserved winners last season, statistically they were not only the best in the second tier, but a top 8-10 team in England and that is what we have seen from their two opening games. They have quality, play at an incredibly high tempo even by Premier League standards and huge self belief. They also have a genius head coach in Marcelo Bielsa who is more than a little strange ( I saw him doing some very odd things pre kick off at Griffin Park) but is adored by players and supporters and seems to have finally found a "home". United's style of play is also going to be far better suited to the 8 fewer games they will be asked to play in the top flight.
That game finished 1-1, City dominated early, but United actually gave them a bit of a battering at times over the final 60 minutes or so and probably should have won. We have the Bielsa (mentor), Pep Guardiola (pupil) dynamics today which will be talked to death pre kick off and there is no doubt that Pep holds El Loco in very high regard, but today is more about United making the criteria to do well against City.
1.75 units Manchester City to win and both teams to score 2.60 +..............2.80 Pinnacle.
Dortmund are in a very odd position, they want to try and bridge the 7 point gap to top 4, which looks a very tall order , but have to play with the Man City game in mind and can certainly ill afford to pick up any injuries and having put huge effort into the first leg, can they dare leave everything on the pitch today and be ready to go again on Wednesday, against what might well be the best team in Europe.
Stuttgart have really impressed back in the Bundesliga and must be delighted with 8th place, offensively they have been creating top 3-4 level stats and whilst they are some way off that level defensively , they are the joint 4th highest scorers in the Bundesliga overall . They are looking to complete the double over Dortmund after winning the reverse fixture 5-1, they have only lost to Bayern in their last 7 starts and with the visitors having conceded twice in 5 of their last 6 , I almost expect Stuttgart to notch a couple and see any value today as with ..................
1.5 units Stuttgart level ball 2.97 asian line.
Good luck !
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