Tuesday/Wednesday Brasileirao betting previews ......
Jun 15, 2022
Brazil: Serie A
Juventude- Santos
I have previewed two Juventude home games in the last 9 days, both notes were within the latter and also touched upon a Santos game with one of the same teams ............
Juventude picked up three huge points in the Sunday afternoon game when they edged past Fluminense 1-0 .......
This game stands out looking at expected numbers through the eight rounds played to date. Fluminense have an 8-8 goal difference, but should have conceded 5-6 goals more and are placed 19th for xP which is below where Juventude actually are. The home side should be four goals better off and most of those are at home, where they have an xGF of 6.2 for their last four starts (played two of last season's top 6), but have scored just three goals. Flu have given up 11 BC's ( 3/3/5) in their last three away starts and this is a good opportunity for Juventude to pick up the points which would take them out of the drop zone and continue a good sequence of results against the visitors (four points last season, 1-0 win and 2-0 BC's in the fixture here in Caxias do Sul). Flu are without suspended veteran CB David Braz, they lost 3-2 at Coritiba in the last game he missed , this compounds the injury to the visitors best CB, Nino (he did make the squad who travelled, but that included 25 players and he is said to be a major doubt).
The hosts were also 3-0 for BC's and gave up little defensively (just 3 attempts ITB).
Athletico played out a 2-2 home draw with Santos ( 3-3 for BC's) the night before, they have been very much a home team (like many in Brazil) for a number of years, but have also turned into something of a cup specialist and made the Copa do Brasil final last year and won the Copa Sudamericana, despite finishing 14th in the league, which was a fair reflection looking at xGD. They qualified comfortably through the Copa Libertadores group stage, despite not scoring a goal in their three way starts and easy to see normal service in the league, strong at home, struggling a little on the road, with full attention on the two cup competitions. They did win 3-0 here early last season, but that was really flattering , Juventude dominated statistically and know a little more about the top flight now.
Those two games played out very differently and Juventude lost the second 3-1, but "won" BC's 3-2 and xG 2.28-1.36, they were misfiring in front of goal and it does feel like that will be an issue going forward, Juve have averaged just about one goal per game since returning to the top flight and a good chance that they will score again today, but will that be enough ? Santos have drawn their last three starts,but have played three of the stronger sides and created 11 BC's and an average of 2.71 xGF and statistically their numbers have been really good all season , xP places them 3rd and they should have scored an additional 8 goals, albeit whilst conceding 7 more.
2.25 units "over" 2.25 goals 2.34 asian line.
2 units Santos level ball 2.17 asian line.
Juventude are the worst second half home team in Serie A, winless and conceding six goals after the break.
Ceará - Atlético Mineiro
Ahead of a 5-3 defeat at Fluminense last midweek I wrote ..............The visitors (Atlético Mineiro) are the defending champions having finished 13 points ahead of Flamengo last season, with 26 wins, only one other team in the last 17 years had won even 24 and that was the exceptional Fla team in 2019 and that places CAM at very elite level. They are third currently, but are #1 for xP and an xGD of +7 is exceptional.
That was an incredible game and one which could be replayed a dozen times with the same numbers without Flu scoring 2-3 goals , let alone five, it was a real shock . Atlético have played once subsequently, a 1-1 home draw with Santos, the visitors hit the woodwork three times in that game and equalised after playing 20-25 minutes with 10 men and CAM are very strong, but clearly at a vulnerable moment right now.
Ceara made the notes last month when they travelled to Sao Paulo having struggled a little domestically up to that point , but having been in great international form.............
Ceara finished above Sao Paulo last season and were still in Copa Libertadores contention on the final day of the season, which was a big achievement for them. They struggled in their first two years back in the top flight, but have improved greatly in the last two campaigns and feel very much at home now amongst the elite. SP are the much bigger club of course and have started well with a 3-3-1 record, a perfect 3-0-0 at home, but they are a team I struggle to warm to and I have spoken often in recent campaigns about their issues in front of goal, they scored just 39 in 2019 despite finishing 6th (the top five teams averaged 64.4 goals !) and 31 last season, with only the bottom two managing fewer . They have 12 goals already this time around , so might have addressed the problem, but I am still a little sceptical, on loan striker Jonathan Calleri has 7 goals to his name , but let's see what happens when his output starts to dry up.
Ceara fell out of the blocks and lost three of their first four starts, but put a lot of effort into their Copa Sudamericana campaign ( even that is a big deal for them) and finished the group stage the #1 ranked team with a perfect 6/6 wins (only team to do so) and 17-1 goal difference. They have drawn with Santos and Flamengo in their last two starts and can forget about the international competition now until the end of next month. They have drawn on their last two visits to SP and have turned into draw specialists, with 10/17 on the road last season ending all square. That cost them a much higher finish, early in the season I wrote ..............
I spoke recently about Ceará's improved away form last season, when they collected 17 more points on the road than they did in 2019 and xP suggested they should have finished three places higher than 11th in 2020 and this is a team with potential and no reason why they should not be eyeing up a top 10 finish.
They were actually 11th, out of 10th only on goal difference and just 8 points adrift of 4th, when we see that they drew 17 games and xGF says they should have scored 13 goals more, it is easy to see that they might have bridged that gap and probably were top 8 ability wise.
They drew that 2-2 and are unbeaten in five league starts since writing those notes. H2h games here in Fortaleza have been close and competitive and edged by the home side, with two wins and a draw in the last four, all of which produced 3+ goals. Given how good the visitors are, but perhaps at a low point right now and having had to travel 2,300 km NE to play in tough conditions and with Ceara in great form, it is easy to see more of the same and good value with both........
2 units Ceará level ball 2.42 asian line .
2 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.29 asian line.
Goiás- Internacional
It is very hard to get away from the draw in this game. Internacional are on an impressive looking run of 15 games unbeaten ( 8 draws) , but expected numbers do suggest they should have conceded more goals (8.3 in the league). Goias have drawn 5/10 starts and within that sequence are 1-4-0 at home with draws against top teams in CAM and Palmeiras and there has not been more than a goal between either team in their last 12 outings . That will surely continue, so good value with the stalemate.......
2 units draw 3.21 asian line.
America- Fluminense
We have already touched upon Flu's fortunate 5-3 win over CAM , ahead of that I had opposed them on the road to Juventude where they lost 1-0 and they greated nothing and the victors have done little to frank the form line subsequently ..........
This game stands out looking at expected numbers through the eight rounds played to date. Fluminense have an 8-8 goal difference, but should have conceded 5-6 goals more and are placed 19th for xP which is below where Juventude actually are. The home side should be four goals better off and most of those are at home, where they have an xGF of 6.2 for their last four starts (played two of last season's top 6), but have scored just three goals. Flu have given up 11 BC's ( 3/3/5) in their last three away starts and this is a good opportunity for Juventude to pick up the points which would take them out of the drop zone and continue a good sequence of results against the visitors (four points last season, 1-0 win and 2-0 BC's in the fixture here in Caxias do Sul). Flu are without suspended veteran CB David Braz, they lost 3-2 at Coritiba in the last game he missed , this compounds the injury to the visitors best CB, Nino (he did make the squad who travelled, but that included 25 players and he is said to be a major doubt).
They then lost 2-0 at home to Atletico Goianiense and whilst they played 70 minutes a man short, that is still a poor loss and back on the road we have to look to oppose them and for the poor Flu numbers to "hold up" or continue.
I was quite taken with America last season and late in the campaign wrote ................
America took all three points from their trip to Recife on Wednesday .......
Sport's need is great, as they are , like Juventude , 5 points from safety, but they have played two games more and it is difficult to find the same good numbers from which to suggest there is hope, in fact, the reverse is true. They are ranked 18th for xP and in one recent game they were a net -31 for total attempts. -15 on target - 24 ITB and -13 saves with their goalkeeper earning hero status and regardless of opposition, or venue, those are shameful numbers.
America made the early season notes when after a seven game winless start I noted ..........
America came up from B with Chapecoense , they will be even more disappointed with their record of 0-3-4 and they have scored just 3 goals . However, xGA suggests that the eight goals they have conceded is right on the number and very acceptable for a newly promoted team through 7 starts, but xGF gives them 9.5 goals, almost an additional one per game.
Since writing that they have gone 9-8-6 across 23 starts, which equates to 58 points over a full season which would have been good for top 7 in each of the last five seasons (7-7-7-5-6) and they are currently 5th for xP, so fair to say that top 7 is about their level. They are currently 12th, but a top 8-9 finish is well within their grasp and capabilities and might earn that huge prize we started the notes by discussing. They are coming off a 1-0 derby loss to leaders A-MG, but no shame in that and America have not lost back to back games since July and their last three defeats (18 starts) have all been to top 7 teams.
They won 3-2 and were helped by a first half red card awarded against Sport, but already led at that stage. The points took them up to 10th and we discussed in midweek the number of Copa Libertadores places which might be up for grabs and America are in contention and ,after their last three top flight campaigns ended in relegation, that is a very big deal and achievement.
They finished 8th and got that Copa Libertadores spot, they were actually 3rd for XP in 2021 and rather than cowering in the shadow of neighbours and league champions Atletico-MG they have thrived and used that as an incentive. They should have scored an additional 19 goals last season , a massive 0.5 pg . Many teams like them would have struggled with the schedule and pressure of playing CL and that has happened to others this season (see below), but again, they have flourished domestically and it is all hugely impressive, they are 9th currently, don't have to worry about international commitments from here on in, but have a taste for it now and another good season is on the cards. They are coming off two defeats, but to better sides than Flu and were a net +6 ITB attempts and level for BC's in those two, so have not been outplayed and this feels a great chance to get back on track .
2.25 units America -0.5 ball 2.42 asian line.
Athletico Paranaense- Corinthians
Athletico have been very much a home team (like many in Brazil) for a number of years, but have also turned into something of a cup specialist and made the Copa do Brasil final last year and also won the Copa Sudamericana, despite finishing 14th in the league, which was a fair reflection looking at xGD. They qualified comfortably through the Copa Libertadores group stage, despite not scoring a goal in their three way starts and easy to see normal service in the league, strong at home, struggling a little on the road, with full attention on the two cup competitions. They are unbeaten in five, but are a net -2.5 xGD across those games and have ridden their luck and will need to do so again to get something from this.
Corinthians are 2nd in the table, just a point shy of Palmeiras (who are their biggest rival ) and putting in the title push we see from them every 3-4 years with dips in between. However, good or bad, they always seem to turn it on in this fixture and have won on 6/9 visits, including the last three without conceding and are also unbeaten in 10 home h2h matchups . Their numbers are not of top 2, or even top 5 level, but significantly better than CAP's and with that h2h record they look attractive off level ball, with the home side struggling to dominate domestic games.
2 units Corinthians level 2.28 asian line.
Good luck!
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