Today's offer and free bet ...........
Mar 06, 2022
The football bet of the day ( see previous post) was Hoffenheim who won 1-0 , all of you who asked received that and what turned out to be a 80% saving on a subscription !
Bundesliga : Köln- Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim are a team we have done INCREDIBLY well with, not Sassuolo "good" , but possibly next best and that's without counting the 110-1 winner with Leicester City ! Last time we discussed them was when they hosted Dortmund in late January and those notes are reproduced at the foot of this email, they lost that 2-3 but (obviously) landed both bets and they have won three of the four games played subsequently. This season they have won eight home games which is good for them, but it is on the road we usually bet Hoffenheim and they have been involved in some incredible shootouts in away games where they fear absolutely no one and they will approach trips to Bayern and Dortmund, similarly to games at Furth or Augsburg. Across the last five seasons, that's 80 games, their away starts have averaged 3.375 goals , it was a ridiculous 4.35 in 2018-19 and they are on course for the next best season in that sequence this time round, with 3.58 pg.
The visitors sit in 6th place this morning, but the win will take them 4th ,into the Champions League spots and just two points off third placed Leverkusen, it is a big incentive. Köln are only four points back of Hoffenheim so might have similar aims, but those four points make a lot of difference, as they are that many behind several "better" teams playing for one spot and the hosts definitely do not have the firepower of a top 5-6 team. They are almost half a goal per game inferior to Hoffenheim in that regard and worse defensively in goals conceded , both for xGA and in reality. The hosts rely heavily on the goals of former Hoffenheim striker Anthony Modeste, he has 15 to his name this season and one assist, when he doesn't score they won just once in nine starts and not beaten a non bottom 8 team all season. He was a bit of a no show in the reverse fixture which Hoffenheim won heavily (5-0...........6-0 for BC's with Köln not having an attempts on target) and he doesn't have a goal or assists in seven Bundesliga meetings against his former club and Köln have not beaten TSG in 11 h2h games, losing the last seven .
2.25 units Hoffenheim -0.5 ball 2.66 asian line.
Good luck !
Bundesliga: Hoffenheim- Borussia Dortmund (written January 22nd)
We have done incredibly well with Hoffenheim in these games against the Big 2 in Germany (Bayern and Dortmund) and my notes on the reverse fixture in early season included ..........
Dortmund's defensive numbers are a little high (7 BC's and 3.8 xGA) and they have given up 1.60 goals per game over their last 30 Bundesliga starts, up 33% from their 2019-20 number of 1.20pg.
Hoffenheim were the best offensive team outside the top 10 last season and only Bayern have created more BC's through the opening two rounds. They have been very comfortable on the road in recent campaigns, especially in terms of scoring goals, with a very respectable 34.61% win rate in away games since the start of the 2018-19 season, scoring a high/huge 1.79 goals on average.
They have a great record in Dortmund, being unbeaten in three visits scoring 9 goals and they have scored on 9/10 trips here, with 2+ goals in six.
Hoffenheim are a "lucky" team for us, landing a series of big odds bets last season, including one at 9.0 + and another @ 110.0 (albeit alongside Leicester City).
We went with Hoffenheim to score twice and "over" 4 goals in the game,both at nice odds and Dortmund rather fortunately won 3-2 after the game I noted .........
They (Hoffenheim)were the better team for my money and missed two other huge chances ,deserved at least a point and this is a team who are going to score a LOT of goals this season and they are capable of doing so against any Bundesliga team.
I am not sure that much has changed, ahead of Dortmund's last away start (Frankfurt) they trailed 2-0 and again won 3-2 . Of course, all credit to Dortmund for pulling a rabbit out of the hat and not for the first time, second or tenth time ! There is plenty to like about the battling qualities they have and they are the second best team in Germany. However, they struggle to keep a clean sheet and have conceded 29 goals (1.53 pg) and that is more than seven Bundesliga teams and the same as TSG, their "gung -ho " partners.
Dortmund have given up an average xGA of 1.7 pg versus top half of the table teams and have conceded 2+ goals in 8 of those .
Hoffenheim are 4th and probably need to win today to stay there. Their last 8 starts have seen BTS score in each and an average of 4.375 goals , Dortmund's last 10 come in at 4.2 pg and their only clean sheet in 9 league starts came versus bottom of the table Furth. The hosts have scored 2+ goals in 6 of the last 8 h2h meetings, 3 or more in three and it is very hard to see either team bucking the trends this afternoon.
2 units Hoffenheim to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.09 asian line.
1.5 units "over" 4.5 goals 3.38 asian line.
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