A few lines about the new season.

 

 

Big 6 have filled top 6 places in the Premier League in three of the last four seasons, the blip was in 2015-16 and what an odd campaign that was, not just because Leicester City won, but that Liverpool and Chelsea also finished outside the top 7 and City won with the second lowest points total of the millenium. Arsenal were second with 71 points, which is over 10 points less than the norm for the runner up and that season was so far out of kilter to anything before or since, that it is best ignored...........unless you are a Leicester City supporter !

 

The Foxes aside, the last non big 6 team to break into the top 3 was Newcastle United in 2003 and it will be incredibly hard for anyone to snap the monopoly. One or even two of the six can have a poor year, but by their standards that usually means 5th or 6th anyway and doesn't leave much room for anyone else, the biggest clubs are just too big and whilst everyone talks about the EPL riches and the 100m + you get just to compete in the PL, it is still only the tip of the iceberg for the elite, maybe only 20% of income, for the rest of the league maybe as much as 80-90%. So it enables them to compete in the top flight but not really with the big 6 and that is the way the top clubs like it and will do everything to maintain the status quo. When they make a signing now it is usually of the 40-50m + variety, the other 70% of the Premier League cannot operate at that level.

 

The top 6 averaged 78 points last season, the rest 41, which highlights the bridge the "also rans" have to cross to compete and being average and getting those 41 points will ensure survival and good money for club and high salaries for players, so is not a bad place to be and well run clubs like Burnley can first use the money to get things right off the pitch and then upgrade their playing staff over time. However, the issue is that all the while they are buidling/growing, they might be better equipped to survive, but getting further and further away from the Big 6.

 

Even within the six there is a pecking order in terms of spending power and salaries paid, withTottenham and Arsenal the "poor" relations and having prioritised new stadium builds over transfer fees. Spurs have raised their strict salary ceiling this season, having paid roughly 100m less than City-United and Chelsea in recent years,  awarding Harry Kane a 70m five year contract to keep the England captain at the club. Other key players will expect to be paid in tandem and whether that is why they have spent nothing in the window this year or not I do not know, but I doubt it is coincidence.But even last season, pre increases,  Spurs still paid at least double in salaries of all but 3-4 other clubs (non Big 6) and four times that of others. They are moving back to White Hart Lane, have made no additions to the squad and have a lot of young players coming from their first summer international tournament and I think they could miss out on top 4 this season..

 

No club has defended the PL title since United in 2009, but City look well equipped to do so , have lost no one they wanted to keep and added Riyad Mahrez for 60m to further increase an array of attacking options. They were the first team ever to reach 100 points and finished 19 ahead of United and whilst I do not doubt that they will have the Champions League as their main focus, they have the depth and can afford to fall away slighty and still win the title.

 

Liverpool are second favourites and have been well backed despite finishing 25 points adrift of City last season, mainly because of the king's ransom they have spent in bringing in Alisson, Naby Keita and Fabinho, with the defensive side of things largely being given priority. They scored 84 last year, a  total beaten only by City, so that makes sense, they conceded 38 which was a decent improvement on recent campaigns anyway and, to be honest, I need to be convinced. The trio will all need to come to terms with the PL which is not an easy adjustment and the Reds biggest defensive issues have been away from Anfield where the learning curve will be even steeper for the newbies. Don't get me wrong, when Liverpool are purring, they are as good as anyone, but across 38 games I have my doubts and it is hard to see Mo Salah replicating his 32 goals of last season. They have not finished top 3 since 13-14 when Luis Suarez scored 31 goals and could not do it last season with the Egyptian superstar going one better, infact, they have been top 3 just once in nine seasons and not won the title since 1990.

 

Manchester United were runner up, despite Jose Mourinho, that's it, they were second despite him being in charge ! He used to be fun, at least in interview, now a bit boorish and he has spent all summer complaning that he needed money to spend. He has added Fred for 53m and Dalot for 19m which I suppose doesn't count and he has Pogba, Matic, Fellani, Mata, Sanchez, Martial ( as I type), Lingard, Lukaku , Rashford etc at his disposal and a lot of offensive options should he deign to open up a little and use them. United have finished second in the PL on six occasions (95/98/06/10/12/18) and have a 100% record 12 months later and are looking to win the title the following season after finishing runner up for the 6th time. United beat 4 of the other big 5 at Old Trafford and scored three away to Arsenal and City, becoming the only team to win at the Etihad since the start of 2017. They can turn it on when they want to, maybe Jose will surprise everyone and go for it now that he has no defenders ! I do see them as the most likely challenger once again with regard to odds which sees them quoted at twice the price of Liverpool.

 

Chelsea have swapped Antonio Conte for Maurizio Sarri (pictured) , that most italian of Italians,  he has pledged to attack and that is really the only way his Napoli side played, he has bought Jorginho with him from Naples and goalkeeper Kepa from Atletico Madrid for a monster fee, but the latter is 23yo and might need a little time and for Sarri , born and raised in Naples and never having coached outside of Italy this will be a steep learning curve. They are still not 100% certain to keep Eden Hazard with the other main transfer windows still open and a lot needs to go right for the 2016-17 champions.

 

Arsenal start their first season since 1996 without Arsene Wenger at the helm, he has been replaced by Unai Emery who has a fantastic CV and the treble in France and three Europa League titles with Sevilla are only the tip of the iceberg in what he has achieved in turning around a host of clubs, most in double quick time. He is a much more urbane figure than Sarri and feels a decent fit for the Gunners. They have a lot of ground to make up having finished 12 points off Champions League pace last season, but I think they will improve, Lichtsteiner, Sokratis, Leno and Torreira were the summer signings , all defensive players and it will be the goals against column that Emery needs to address, players signed give him a mix of veterans expected to hit the ground running and potential. Only Liverpool and City scored more last season, they will have a full season from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang this time round (10 goals and 4 assists in 13 apperances last season) and he Lacazette, Wellbeck, Ozil, Ramsey and MKhitaryan give them plenty of quality options going forward and PEA could really take the Premier League by storm.