Premier League ............Does Antonio Conte know the size of the job at hand ?
Nov 17, 2021
Pd = games played.
Pts= points.
GD= goal difference, For-Against.
XP= expected points.
XGD= expected goal difference.....xGF-xGA.
BC's = Big scoring chances, created-conceded.
ITB = Chances created -conceded inside the box.
BC's L4 = Big scoring chances, last 4 games.
ITB L4= ITB attempts, last 4 games.
Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner of the net, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities, hence why we set great store by the ITB numbers, which you are unlikely to see in this format anywhere else.
I think the real value of ITB might be once the numbers start to turn, as that improvement in performance may not always be reflected immediately in results, so we will have an edge "knowing" when teams are starting to sort out those issues, OR falling into bad habits, which is just as valuable. I like expected goals/points numbers too, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because they are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But in actual fact, I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.
I have ditched the experiment with "on target attempts", they are a totally useless stat on their own and I really do not know what I was thinking of, beyond putting them as point of reference and showing how inferior they are to ITB.
So much to discuss, but we will be covering the games at the weekend, so can leave most of it until then, but a couple of things to point out this morning.
Manchester City (28 xP, +19 net BC's, +90 ITB attempts) and Liverpool (26 xP. +25 net BC's and +65 ITB attempts) are head and shoulders statistically above the rest , even Chelsea and it is difficult to see how the duo will not finish 1-2 in the EPL, especially if City address that #9 issue in the transfer window.
Tottenham are ranked #15 for xP, #11 for net BC's and a dire 18th for net ITB attempts and, with regard to ITB , only Norwich have created fewer attempts and only three team have conceded more , add in that they have the joint worst (real) goal difference outside the bottom two and you can see what Antonio Conte has been left to work with and what a huge task he has on his hands. He might be the man for the job and I assume he has had assurances from Daniel Levy that the purse strings will be loosened and Spurs, apparently, have the most leeway in the EPL in terms of what they can spend and still stay within FFP rules. I would normally ask here if any club apart from Brentford or Spurs worry about that in any case ? The Bees because they are goody two shoes and Spurs because they have a money making model instead of a trophy winning one ! However, Conte would not have come without concrete promises, but I suspect he knows now ,after two weeks at the club, the depth of the issues he has to address. It is also a long time (more than 12 years) since Conte took charge of a team midseason, without a preseason and usually longer, to sort things out and it did not work out well the last time he tried (Atalanta).
Brentford have hit the buffers results wise and lost their last four games,however they remain 5th for xP (3 points clear of the team in sixth), T7th for BC and 4th for ITB, all of which are remarkable numbers. However, not as remarkable as the next I will point out , which is that we can make a case for those numbers, at least in terms of ITB, having improved across those four pointless games ! They are a net +28 which places them second only to Manchester City and 46-18 means they created the second most and conceded the fewest in the EPL. If this was anyone apart from the Bees I/we would be positively raving about these numbers and drooling with excitement at what they mean, but as they are my team and everyone knows that, I do have to temper things slightly , but these are not numbers collected, only highlighted, by me.
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Good luck !
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