Premier League betting tip: Tottenham Hotspur- Chelsea
Sep 19, 2021
Premier League: Tottenham Hotspur- Chelsea
Pre season I wrote ............
Chelsea are forecast to be the biggest challengers to Manchester City in their title defence and the Blues have a fearsome looking squad and a pretty young one , who are hardly going to step backwards as Champions League winners. Goals were a problem and they underperformed offensively, believe it or not, under Thomas Tuchel, despite picking up 2.06 point pg after his arrival, coming up 0.6 goals pg short in relation to xG. That has been addressed with the statement signing of Romelu Lukaku for a HUGE fee and it could be enough to get them over the line domestically.
They are joint top with 10 points from their three games, only dropping points away to Liverpool where they played over half the game with ten men, they have scored 9 goals, with Lukaku contributing three and none of that has come at much of a cost defensively, as the Blues have conceded just a single goal, which came in the aforementioned match at Anfield.
Tottenham featured rather heavily in my look at the Premier league before the season began and I noted ..........
The problem is that 42% of the points on offer have been won by the top six (30%) finishers and it has traditionally been very tough to pick up points against the "Big 6" (City, United. Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham). However, signs that things are getting closer, or rather that it is becoming a Big 4 financially and that the two North London giants are getting caught by the pack, or at least getting cast adrift by the bigger spending power of the other four. The Gunners have not finished top 4 since 2015-16 and this will be their fifth season without Champions League football after playing in it for 19 straight seasons prior to that, they have been 8th in each of the last two campaigns and this will be their first season without European football since 1995 ! Tottenham have finished 6th and 7th in the last two seasons and have the "honour" of playing Europa Conference League in 21-22. Spurs are always included in the Big 6, but they have not won the league since 1961, the FA Cup since 1991 and the League Cup just once this millenium, their only title in more than two decades. Tottenham have actually only played in the Champions League on five occasions and finished top 4 in the Premier League "just" six times, a lot of 5th and 6th place finishes too in the last 15 years, but their record not only pales, it shrivels in comparison to the other five and their Big 6 tag has a bit of a smoke and mirrors feel to it.
Arsenal and Tottenham are "names" and have more income than all bar, what I am now calling the Big 4 and you can make a case for both to have massively underachieved in recent campaigns and it is difficult to see either bridging the gap. You can argue that both have built "new" stadiums and Spurs were not helped in that regard by COVID, but the Emirates is now 15 years old, so that is old news and both keep a very tight hold on the purse strings and of the top ten PL transfer fees ever paid, only one player went to Arsenal and none to Tottenham where Daniel Levy is notoriously reluctant to spend big money.
I guess I looked pretty silly when they beat Manchester City on opening day and won their three opening games, but the truth is that City should have been three up inside 10 minutes and Spurs also rode their luck and then some to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers and toiled past Watford, before losing 3-0 away to struggling Crystal Palace last week, where they were very poor. They conceded all three goals after the sending off of Japhet Tanganga, but the rot had already set in and they did not have a single attempt on goal (not on target, of any sort) in the opening half. Brentford had 10 before the break in Palace's previous home start ! Spurs were a total offensive no show and all the luck they had been receiving prior to that , deserted them at Selhurst Park, but there was nothing fortunate about the win for the Eagles, who had an xGD of over 2.8 in the game. Spurs are 15th for xP and personally, I feel all my pre season comments have been justified by performance levels.
Tottenham are struggling big time offensively and are today probably facing the best defence in the Premier League, add in that the hosts played in Rennes on Thursday (2-2) and that no travel in these times is easy and that Chelsea played in London two days earlier and would already have been training fully with today in mind, while Spurs were still in France , I can only see this ending one way. I have spoken often before about what an edge these sessions on the training pitches can give teams, Chelsea will have been able to go full tilt on Thursday and Friday, with a light session on Saturday, Spurs will have been able to do little more than the basics and it is a huge advantage for the Blues IMO.
2.75 units Chelsea -1 ball 2.33 asian line.
Good luck !
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