Premier League betting tip: Crystal Palace-Leicester City
Dec 15, 2018
Premier League: Crystal Palace-Leicester City
Notes on City in the Fulham notes above and that point from a goal down was noteworthy and we can certainly skip over a loss to Tottenham last Saturday, the Big 6 just operate on another level to the rest of the Premier League and you can pretty much guarantee that five of them will fill the top 5 positions most seasons and all six on others and the gap is getting bigger not smaller. I spoke about this in pre season: "Big 6 have filled top 6 places in the Premier League in three of the last four seasons, the blip was in 2015-16 and what an odd campaign that was, not just because Leicester City won, but that Liverpool and Chelsea also finished outside the top 7 and City won with the second lowest points total of the millenium. Arsenal were second with 71 points, which is over 10 points less than the norm for the runner up and that season was so far out of kilter to anything before or since, that it is best ignored...........unless you are a Leicester City supporter !
The Foxes aside, the last non big 6 team to break into the top 3 was Newcastle United in 2003 and it will be incredibly hard for anyone to snap the monopoly. One or even two of the six can have a poor year, but by their standards that usually means 5th or 6th anyway and doesn't leave much room for anyone else, the biggest clubs are just too big and whilst everyone talks about the EPL riches and the 100m + you get just to compete in the PL, it is still only the tip of the iceberg for the elite, maybe only 20% of income, for the rest of the league maybe as much as 80-90%. So it enables them to compete in the top flight but not really with the big 6 and that is the way the top clubs like it and will do everything to maintain the status quo. When they make a signing now it is usually of the 40-50m + variety, the other 70% of the Premier League cannot operate at that level.
The top 6 averaged 78 points last season, the rest 41, which highlights the bridge the "also rans" have to cross to compete and being average and getting those 41 points will ensure survival and good money for club and high salaries for players, so is not a bad place to be and well run clubs like Burnley can first use the money to get things right off the pitch and then upgrade their playing staff over time. However, the issue is that all the while they are buidling/growing, they might be better equipped to survive, but getting further and further away from the Big 6."
Anyway, City are established amongst the second tier now and will have Jamie Vardy and I assume, Harry Maguire (unused sub last week after returning from injury) both pushing for starts today. The reverse is true about Palace ( see WHU notes above) who will be without both Wilfried Zaha and James Tompkins, it is difficult to overemphasize the importance of Zaha to the Eagles offensively and without CB Tompkins, Palace are 1-2-11 since the start of last season. The Foxes will be hungry for a little revenge after losing 5-0 here last season and Palace doing the double by a combined 8-0 ! That will not be soon forgotten and City had found goals relatively easy to come by at Selhurst Park previously, scoring 2+ in 4/6 prior to that and at least once on 8/9 visits.
1.75 units Leicester City level ball 2.05 asian line/Sportmarket.
Alternative/additional bet would be Leicester City "over" 1 goal asian line/Sportmarket, @ circa 1.98, under the new staking system which starts on January 1st that would be shown as 2.5 units, but everyone with a subscription beyond that date will receive details well ahead of time and I think it will not only be an improvement, but greatly increase options going forward. For today, you do not need to overly worry about that, but I will touch upon it occasionally in build up to the changeover.
Palace have lost 8/11 and scored just four home goals ( 2 against both the Gunners and Burnley), so are without a goal in 5 at Selhurst Park.
Palace do tend to start quite solidly and of the 23 goals they have conceded , only two have come during the first 30 minutes, none at home through this opening third. That will not worry Leicester who have scored 9 of their 11 road goals after the break, when they have a +4 goal difference.
Good Luck.
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