Mum's the word!
Jul 05, 2022
Wimbledon : WTA : today's sample betting previews
Ons Jabeur- Marie Bouzkova
Ons Jabeur is supremely gifted with a vast array of shots, she can mix it up like few others and her flat strokes, drop shots and slice backhand are ideally suited to grass, where she has won a LOT of matches and is looking for a 10th straight win of the campaign after taking the build up title in Berlin. She is the #2 player in the world, made the quarter finals here last year and this is her third (0-2) grand slam last eight appearance. However, therein lies the rub! She is the second best player in the world right now, is almost 28 yo, but that is the sum total of what she has achieved in slams and the Tunisian superstar, as that is what she is in her homeland, doesn't always handle pressure well. We had a prime example earlier this year when, after winning Madrid and reaching the final in Rome in her two warm up events, she lost in R1 at the French Open where she was second favourite. She actually has a losing record in slams to players ranked top 50 and had a 50% win rate versus those inside the top 100 before these championships and that is not good enough!
Marie Bouzkova is only 16-12 lifetime on grass, but her four wins in this event came versus players ranked 8-67-36-55 and only top ten ranked Danielle Collins has taken a set off her and that run includes defeats of grass court specialist Alison Riske and on fire Caroline Garcia. This is the first time we have seen the 23 year old convert her skills to grass, but she is talented on hardcourts and at the Australian Open at the start of this year I touched upon that and how she raises her game against the elite players on Tour..........
Bouzkova was not helped by COVID (like a lot of other young tennis players) and that caused her ranking and career to stall slightly and she has been very unlucky in hard court slams, which should favour her (won US Open as a Junior) with first round draws in the last four versus Pegula, Svitolina and Osaka (twice). Now that she has the draw in her favour, I expect that to make her "hungry" and this is a great opportunity for her. Bouzkova is 146-60 on hard courts v opponents ranked 101+ and 22-6 within that when her own ranking is top 100. Bouzkova has four wins over top 10 players (all on hard) and has top 20 potential, she is actually 4-6 in her last 10 matches v top 10 on hard courts and in the losses, she took Serena, Svitolina and Barty the distance and is a big time player ,should thrive in the conditions and has dark horse possibilities this fortnight.
She gets a lot of balls back into play and is largely playing error free tennis at the moment, making just 31 unforced errors (71 winners) in nine sets played which is crazy good. Jabeur is a net +13 for unforced errors over opponents in her four starts, Bouzkova a ridiculous +95! Jabeur showed signs of nerves in the last round and looked in trouble for a while versus Elise Mertens and can be made to work really hard today.
2 units Marie Bouzkova + 4 games 2.28 Pinnacle/Vegas Line.
Jule Niemeier- Tatjana Maria
An all German quarter final, that even the most fiercely patriotic fellow country(wo)man would have struggled to pick pre tournament.
Ahead of Jule Niemeier's R16 match up with Heather Watson I spoke about how her previous match had played out ..........
I expected to see Jule Niemeier as favourite, she is younger , higher ranked and demolished Anett Kontaveit in R2, but these odds feel a little lopsided given how her R3 match with Lesia Tsurenko played out. Niemeir won 6-4/3-6/6-3 which sounds ok, but there were 21 (!) breaks of serve in the match and the German won just 52% of first serves, 29% of second, made 11 double faults and 43 unforced errors ! Both players were very nervous and that was on an outside court, today she will meet the British player on centre court and you do just wonder how she might hold up.
She did just fine and was a very easy 2&4 winner , BUT the British player did not put any pressure on the 22 yo at all.
Tatjana Maria (pictured) is 12 years older and a mother of two, an eight and one year old and she first played Wimbledon in 2007, when her opponent was just 7 years of age. She has always been a journeywoman player, but appears set to break back into the top 100 for the first time since her second pregnancy. This is her 14th start in the last month, 10 (7 of which she won) have gone the distance, so we know she will give it her all. Coming into Wimbledon she has a lifetime 12-34 record in slams and had only gone beyond R2 once and that was when she reached R3 here back in 2015, but she does now have eight Wimbledon wins to her name which is more than at the other three slams combined and absolutely no doubts that this is her best surface. She can raise her game, just not do it that often and 37 wins over players who have ultimately been top 10, is decent. On grass she has 55 wins and a 68% win rate, quite a few low level events and qualifiers amongst those but an impressive 25-21 against top 100 ranked opposition and really eye-catching 4-3 v top 20 (all at Wimbledon) within that., with victories over Svitolina, Sakkari and Ostapenko, all of whom would be strong favourites to beat Niemeier today. Maria likes to attack the net and her opponent has only faced players who were largely glued to the baseline, so a very different contest for the younger player and this could be close.
1.75 units "over" 22.5 games 2.12 Pinnacle/Vegas line.
Good luck!
We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.
Sport: