Ligue 2 betting tip: Sochaux- Olympique Nimes

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Ligue 2: Sochaux- Olympique Nimes

 
In the ten games since Christmas, Nimes have collected 20 points, 14 more than Sochaux, who have paid the price for a lack of real offensive threat, scoring just seven times in those ten starts and scoring a third lowest number this season. Only Strasbourg have scored more than Nimes, who I have been promoting heavily this season and they are now up to 5th, just four points adrift of new leaders Lens. Ahead of their 2-0 win over Red Star last Friday I wrote ...............
 
I opposed Red Star last week when they hosted Lens ...........
 
Full report can be read on this link, which included ......
 
They (RCL) could never get in a real blow at the top three last season after that January win at Red Star, but I spoke of them as a big potential improver early in this campaign and they look better equipped to make the next step up, they play Sochaux, Reims and Brest next, so it is easy to make a case for this being more win-able with the host in decent form (unbeaten in five), but down in 16th place and operating more at a level commensurate with their budget, which was trimmed by 10% despite their 5th placed finish last season. Red Star have won four home starts, coming against teams with an average league placing of 17.25, including 3 of the bottom 4, they have lost five, to teams with a mean of 7.2, including the other two top 3 teams by a combined 4-0 goals difference.
 

The home side are without Jean-Charles Castelletto, Ronald Zubar, and Pierrick Cros (two players with that name btw, other is a back up keeper), they are all centre backs and that leaves Red Star very short handed today. They have named four "defenders", two right backs, a CD who has not played since December and made only 8 starts in the last two seasons and a defensive midfielder who is 35 yo, was brought in as a free agent and has played 130 minutes at tier 3 this season ! That is not good enough, this looks a fantastic opportunity for the visitors and I expect them to win.
 

It was a little bit of history repeating with the visitors again coming from behind to win, this time by 3-2. Red Star do get Jean-Charles Castelletto ( see above) back today, but are still a little light defensively and I really struggle to see more that 2-3 home players who would pucsh for a starting place in what I believe to be a very strong Nimes team, who feature in my notes most weeks. Last Friday I spoke about the huge number of balls they were getting into the box and highlighted that as a now underrated statistic that perhaps needed revisiting .............

BEBP had conceded three goals inside 13 minutes at BOTH Niort and Le Havre and gave up two each to the two "worst" teams in L2, they look vulnerable defensively and there should be goals in this for Nimes, who, as regular readers know, are one of my favourites and very well suited to playing on the road, where they have collected 24 of their 39 points this season.

My notes on their last away win are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off in full, they won 2-1 at highflying Amiens that day, but it is their last two starts, draws at Troyes and home to Gazelec we are probably better off talking about. They played well enough in both, dominating attempts, possession , corners, completed passes and did not allow Troyes, whom I also rate highly, a single attempt on target on home soil. ON also had a huge 65 crosses from open play in those two games, now crosses are a much maligned stat IMO and we could argue all morning, I have absolutely no intention of doing so, so please do not write, about their value or otherwise, but we, by which I mean "I" can discuss these more at some future stage, Suffice to say that I think they are far more relevant than some analysis consensus in recent years might have us believe, especially, when, like in this case, they are such a dominating stat.

I "know" Nimes are good, my numbers say top 2 and I have to side with them as strongly as possible today, time for an about turn in thinking...... "crosses are the new high/wide press " !


 

They won that 1-0 , the points took them into 6th and within four points of an automatic promotion place and with their next five starts against teams currently 10th or lower in the table, they have a real opportunity to kick on and put some pressure on the five above them. The time is right, they know that Sofiane Alakouch and one or two others will not be here much longer, unless they reach Ligue 1, they are very offensive minded and it should be three points or bust from here on in.
 

Sochaux played on Monday at Lens, which means they have the always difficult quick turnaround to handle, along with having made the 1,200km round trip there and back,also also dealing with the three points lost from a winning position, having led with six regulation minutes remaining. Nimes would have had at least two extra training sessions to prepare for this and that, IMO, is a huge edge from what is almost certainly the better team. Lens dominated that game, had four huge first half chances all from crosses into the box, which is pertinent after my notes on Nimes above, they then conceded very much against the run of play, but scored twice late with headers directly from dead ball situations, a free kick and corner, so clear routes for ON to exploit and which we know they will be looking to do in any case. Highlights of the Monday game can be viewed on this link to the Lens website. BTW Nimes had another 29 crosses in the Red Star game.
 
I am far less interested in team news at this stage of the season, but do have to mention that Nimes are without Sofiane Alakouch (pictured) today after bigging him up a few weeks ago .............

BTW, in case I forget, they look to have unearthed an absolute gem in 18 yo right back Sofiane Alakouch (Brentford are you listening ?) Nimes are unbeaten in all ten starts the youngster has made ( six wins) and just those (two) handful of starts into his professional career, he looks the real deal. Nimes know how good he is and are already said to have offered him a four year contract (which I do not believe he has signed) and refuse to let him talk to the media at present, but he will not be unknown for long and this is starting to look like a very talented group of players at L2 level.
 

Also absent is top scorer Rachid Aliou, they won 3-1 at league leading Lens in the only away game he missed this season, so we have to accept that their offensive threat remains, but when Alakouch plays they are 8-6-0, without him 3-6-6 ! However, I think that is not solely down to a teenage right back, however good he is and Nimes as a unit are much improved over the last 3-4 months. Having said that, they have to be a litlle more suspect at the back and I have made a late switch from Nimes off level ball to the over, with a small bet on the away win.
 
 
1.25 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.56 asian line/Sportmarket.
 
0.5 unit Olympique Nimes to win 3.73 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro................3.50+ general quote.

 

Sochaux : Maxence Prévot, Christopher Dilo - Florent Ogier, Mickaël Alphonse, Adolphe Teikeu, Ibrahima Konaté, Jason Pendant, Florian Tardieu, Marco Ilaimaharitra, Florian Martin, Florin Bérenguer, Mohamed Larbi, Yoann Touzghar, Moussa Sao, Faneva Andriatsima, Marcus Thuram.

 

Nimes : Yan Marillat, Martin Sourzac, Lucas Dias, Gaël Angoula, Gaëtan Paquiez, Fabien Garcia, Anthony Briançon, Zié Diabaté - Florian Fabre, Téji Savanier, Ousmane Cissokho, Théo Valls, Larry Azouni - Renaud Ripart, Christian Kouakou, Sada Thioub, Karim Ait Fana.

 

 

Good Luck.
 
 
 

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