Ligue 2 betting tip: Nancy- Racing Club Lens
Oct 25, 2019
Ligue 2:
Wow ! Five goals in eight Ligue 2 games last Friday, that is no good to anyone and I felt like I had been transported back in time , we were robbed of a couple of winners IMO and hopefully that will be addressed and normal service resumed this evening, as a minimum some excitement and a few goals would be nice.
Nancy- Racing Club Lens
Nancy notes from last week at the foot of this email, they are a squad we like , they have drawn too many games, but have only lost once and were running into form with two wins and seven goals in three starts before that stalemate last week, but we can hardly hold that against them on a day when no one was scoring ! They are decent and very much heading in the right direction . Lens made the notes on Monday when they hosted Auxerre ......
This should be fun and a game we can learn something from, I am rather certain that these are two of the best five teams in Ligue 2, both have big budgets (RCL the biggest) and in reality, should be top tier clubs. RCL are second already and would move to within a point of leaders Lorient with the win, they have not played since a 4-1 win at Orleans exactly two weeks ago................
When I set out the ITB net stats for Ligue 2 after round 7 of games ,Orleans were the only team in the bottom half of the table with + numbers, they have played twice since, drawing 2-2 with Le Havre (second at the time) and winning 2-1 at third placed Troyes last week. Following the first I wrote ...........also drawing that, 2-2 at Orleans with Kadewere scoring his 10th league goal of the still new season. It was an open contest in which Orleans were probably unfortunate not to take all three points, they created more of the many chances and were incredibly close to going 2-0 up early, immediately before HAC equalised and then it could have been a very different story. I was quite taken with Orleans offensively , passing was good and their now +5 inside the box numbers suggest they are better than 17th and they looked it. It was an even more impressive result last week, but a word of warning in that HAC and Troyes have both lost they way subsequently, so the timing of games might have been ideal for Orleans. Regardless of which, they are almost certainly better than the league table suggests and pose far more offensive threat than your average struggling team. They are currently 16th, only two points off the bottom and 5 adrift of the team immediately above them, they will not move up with a win, but at least stay in touch with the main pack and opening up some breathing space over the drop zone.
When I set out that ITB league table, Lens were 3rd on +13 as opposed to the reality of 10th, but the numbers have borne out with back to back wins since over Caen ( 2-0) and Paris FC (2-1) and they would move into second place with all three points this evening, remain in 4th with a loss or draw. RCL are the biggest club by far in Ligue 2 with a top tier budget and support, they have finished top 6 in 3 of the last 4 seasons and lost out to Ligue 1 Dijon in the playoff final in May. They are almost guaranteed to be involved in the promotion race and will be looking to avoid the anxiety of the post season this time round.
I do not see either team sitting back this evening, Lens have come with a very offensive looking squad and given their position, they might see it worth risking a point to pick up three and they usually step on the gas late with 6 of their 13 goals (4 of 7 on the road) coming after the 76th minute. Orleans are yet to win at home and might be happier on the road, the two h2h meetings last season produced 9 goals, 7 for Lens and I take the visitor to win, with both on the scoresheet today. In addition to club size, budget , league placing and ITB numbers, another advantage for Lens IMO, is that we are playing on Monday, they are the Leeds United of Ligue 2 and almost never play on Friday night, being chosen for one of the televised fixtures, this is the 12th time they have played on Monday since the start of last season, Orleans have not featured once since August 2017, given what a big shift it is in schedule, I think it is a good edge for RCL. Away win and goals for me.
That worked out perfectly with both bets landed at big odds and two of the Lens goals coming after the 76th minute (79 and 86) to further reward followers of those "in play" stats (see above). Lens are again chosen for the Monday night game, no surprise there, no one plays as much as them on this day, not even close, but it is not such an edge for them this time round, as it is coming after an international break and this will be Auxerre's fourth Monday fixture of 2019.
Guess what ? ............0-0 !
Nancy get Hervé Lybohy and Makhtar Gueyeback today, so can freshen up should they wish, Lens are dealing with that always difficult Monday-Friday turnaround which we have spoken of so often in the last 6-7 years or so. That is compounded IMO as despite RCL "always " playing on Monday, they rarely play Friday in the following round, infact, and this is crazy, it is their first game on this day of the week all season with their first 11 starts all rescheduled for television. Home win.
2 units Nancy -0.25 ball 2.52 asian line/Sportmarket.
Nancy : Valette, Sourzac, Nery, Karamoko, Lybohy, Seka, El Kaoutari, Ciss, Muratori, Akichi, Rocha, Lefebvre, Bassi, Bertrand, Vagner, Gueye, Dona Ndoh, Dembélé.
Lens : Desprez, Leca – Diallo, Michelin, Traoré, Haïdara, Gradit, Radovanovic – Costa, Perez, Mesloub, Cahuzac, Mauricio, Gillet – Doucouré, Boli, Sotoca, Robail, Banza.
Good Luck.
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