clubgowi is a 52 week a year service and we are busy on almost all of those 365 days, but I would be lying if I did not say the start of the European football season, especially the Premier, Championship/Football League, did not feel special and the start of something new and fresh. We have some very exciting times ahead and for me, the English football season started with my first preview of the new season, which I sent to subscribers last week, tomorrow I will send number two of what will be four previews for the new campaign and I am also pleased that we have found some real form to take into it, over the last ten days 17 of our 23 football previews have won. We are not trying to win with every bet, that is impossible and even though it might be nice for a while, it would also be incredibly boring and no fun at all ! What we are trying to do, is always put ourselves in good positions, where we have an edge and the odds favour us, as long as we do that, results will always take care of themselves and we continue to make long term profits, which GOWI/clubgowi has done for over a decade and I have for many years prior to that.
You can read yesterday's notes below, all three selections won by 2 goals, that is kind of beside the point, the content would have been no less valuable or pertinent if they had all lost. No offence, but if you do not "get that", you are probably a lost cause and I would suggest you go and look for another hobby or pastime, maybe a less dangerous one (pictured) than gambling !
There were four previews in today's newsletter, three football and one golf, there are going to be seven newsletters in the next four days and at least ten per week for the next five months or so, this is the very best time to join clubgowi, that is , until the next best time !
Two questions: Would you be better informed reading previews like those below on a daily basis ? Is it would paying a shade over 2€ per newsletter (significantly less once you are an established subscriber) to receive them ?
Next newsletter will be sent @ 10.00 UK time on Wednesday.
Third qualifying round, just two steps away from the group stage of the competion and the riches and high profile games that provides, last year I spoke about the former and for some of these clubs it really is make or break for their season , for others, once they get used to the (now) 14m€ + boost to funds every one or two years, it is very difficult to do without it. Last year I wrote .....
This is the second qualifying round, all teams competing this week are looking for the holy grail, which in footballing terms is the Champions League group stage. Four of the teams who played at this stage made it through last year......Maribor, Malmo, BATE and Ludogorets, all are looking to repeat that feat and believe me, motivation will be even bigger this time round with a massive jump in prize money on offer, this year, just a spot in the group stage is worth 12m €, winning a match would earn 1.5m € and even a point 0.5m €.
That means you could finish bottom of your group with four points like the Bulgarian side Ludogorets did last year and collect a cool 14m €, that is the real attraction of Champions League football and is the equivalent for the "minnows" ( no offence to any, as they are all big clubs domestically), of Real, Barce or Bayern winning the competition.
Of course, every team is motivated and has the same four games ( two 3rd round and two playoff) to navigate to reach the "promised land", but I think the bigger clubs, who are used to those six huge group games and know what it can bring in terms of money and/or prestige will base much of their season around the next 28 days.
Dinamo Zagreb- Dinamo Tbilisi
I previewed Dinamo Zagreb's trip to Skopje to play Vardar in Round 2 ............
Sweltering in Skopje today and conditions will probably slightly favour the hosts, but that is probably the only advantage they might have and it will have cooled down significantly by kick off and if the forecast I saw is 100% correct, there might even be some cloud cover and a slight breeze during the game.
The Macedonian team have struggled in Europe and have not won a game since 2004, that is 16 fixtures (0-6-10), they have mainly been playing teams of a similar level to Dinamo and they are going to have to up the level of their performance to break their duck this evening.
Veteran coach Zlatko Kranjčar is back in charge of Dinamo for a third time and will clearly have a mandate to continue the visitors fine record in the competition and European football in general and to get another share of the huge riches that the Champions League offer for his club.
Over the last decade, Dinamo have qualified for the group stage of the UEFA Cup/Europa League four times, the Champions League three times since 2011-12 including last year, when they beat Arsenal in the group stage and picked up 13.5m €. You get "used" to that kind of money and the club accountants will be looking for more of the same. Of course, they do not need to win today, a point would not be terrible and they would be confident of turning things in their favour next week, but that would put them under a little pressure , everyone knows the value of an away goal and one might be enough to collect the win today. Vardar are a little short handed up top and Dinamo have an amazing UEFA Champions League qualifying road record, being 9-2-0 away from home in the last four years.
The Macedonian league doesn't begin again until next month, the Croatian league re-starts this weekend, so the visitors should be a few weeks further along in terms of fitness and I expect them to win this.
They won that 2-1, scoring two away goals inside 30 minutes, which effectively got the job done and dusted in terms of qualification. Today they meet a team who have had a little more european success than Vardar, but one who have majorly struggled at this level of competition, this is Tbilisi's tenth attempt to reach the playoff round and they have only once before got beyond QR2 and they fell short at this stage in that season and Zagreb have a big edge in terms of Champions League experience and class.
Inbetween the two Q2 round games, Marko Pjaca left Zagreb to join Juventus for circa 25m€ , which is obviously a loss, but one which was expected, he said his farewells after a 3-1 win over Lokomotiva in the first league game of the season and the Croatian champions have three wins from three starts, but have yet to keep a clean sheet. They will be hugely mindful of that tonight and will want a cleansheet and/or a two goal margin of victory as a minimum. Tbilisi do not start their domestic Umaglesi Liga until the end of next week and will be behind the hosts in that regard, they have no real record of success in the CL especially on the road and will be coming with damage limitation as a priority and would doubtless take a 2-1 loss now. Zagreb will be looking for another fast start and will surely want to take as big a lead as possible to Georgia for the second leg, where Tbilisi are much stronger and have good support.......... 2-0/3-1.
1.5 units Dinamo Zagreb -1.5 ball 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket.
Shakhtar Donetsk- Young Boys
Young Boys are very offensive minded and a little too gung ho for their own good at times, they have been involved in some wild and crazy European shoot outs in recent seasons, witness the 2014-15 Europa League games with Everton which they lost 7-2 on aggregate and which could/should have ended 12-7 or something similar. They have lost their last three road games in Europe by a combined 10-1 and I would strongly argue that Shakhtar are stronger and a more experienced European campaigner than any of that trio. The hosts missed out on the domestic title to Dynamo Kiev for the second year running, they had been champions for the previous five and top 2 for 20 straight seasons in a strong (at the top end) Ukranian league and that means they have incredible Champions League experience. They have been in the group stage for 8 of the last 10 seasons and have, in addition, won and made the last four of the Europa League (UEFA Cup) through the same period. Anything less than a place in the Group Stage will be deemed failure, not least because big rivals Dynamo Kiev are already qualified and there is huge competition between the two clubs. Donetsk warmed up with a 4-1 win over Zirkain their league opener at the weekend and looked good in the debut of new head coach Paulo Fonseca who replaced legendary veteran Mircea Lucescu, who had been at the helm for 12 glorious and success filled years. Failure to reach the group stage is going to put huge pressure on Fonseca almost before his term has begun and he will be very motivated to hit the ground running.
Not so easy to get overseas players to move to the Ukraine currently, but they still have 7-8 very talented South Americans (Taison, Bernard, Fred etc), nine who made the Ukraine squad for Euro 2016 and there is other international experience like Eduardo and evergreen Darijo Srna and quality wise, they on a completely different level to the visitors, with a squad value of 4-5 times greater than the visitors. That difference is compounded with YBB dealing with long term injuries to several regular starters. This should be entertaining, but I strongly favour the hosts to win and take a two goal lead to Switzerland.
1.5 units Shakhtar Donetsk -1.25 ball 1.96 asian line/Sportmarket.
Club Friendly: MK Dons- Everton
New head coach Ronald Koeman will be very keen to get the supporters on his side, he has won his first two pre season games by a combined 4-0 and well over 2, 000 Evertonians travelled to watch the three goal win at Barnsley at the weekend and will be at Stadium MK in good numbers again this evening. They are a little restless at present as, whilst there has been plenty of talk about big name signings, none have yet to put pen to paper and the promised £100m + transfer kitty from billionaire owner Farhad Moshiri , is still earning interest in his bank account ! In that linked preview, I spoke about how much better the Toffees were on the road last year and I doubt too much will change in that regard until the squad does, they will play to their strengths and Koeman will want to build momentum and he won his first five friendly starts, all on the road after taking charge at Southampton and by an aggregate 15-1. He seems sure to go with a strongish line up today and Ross Barkley, Seamus Coleman, Aiden McGeady and Tom Cleverly, will surely see more game time after just 30-45 minutes off the bench at Oakwell.
Dons were a very poor championship team last season and rightly got relegated after just one season in the top flight, last August, and after they had just scored four on the road at Rotherham, I spoke about what I saw as a major weakness in the squad .....
Newly promoted Dons scored four at Rotherham on opening day, but I have my doubts about them at present in terms of goals, they lost 20 goal top scorer Will Grigg and hugely influential 16 goal Dele Alli in the summer and with them, a lot of their offensive threat. I just do not see where the ten goal, let alone 15-20 goal Championship level striker is in this squad, maybe they will sign one, but IMO, he is not on the books right now. They play nice football and are comfortable on the ball, but goals will be hard to come , the four against the Millers papered over the cracks, just one in three starts against Preston, Reading and Bolton who are not the best teams they will face this season by any stretch of the imagination, give a better indication of the problems they face. At the other end of the pitch, David Martin has so far made the most saves in the Championship and and is keeping his team in games, but that can only go on so long.
They only scored 35 in 45 starts after that and ended as the lowest goal scorers in the Championship, have they adreesed that problem/issue ? No, have they strengthened in any department ? Again, the answer is in the negative, they are preparing for lower level football, but they look significantly weaker to my eyes and putting nine goals past a 5th-6th tier Irish team in early pre season hasn't changed anything and they were given the run around at times by a very average Conference team on Saturday, despite fielding a "strong" team. Their squad looks thin to me, several of the senior players are injured and I doubt will be risked and any team that Everton field should be up to winning this with a degree of comfort. Dons like to play out from the back, Everton will press high far more under Koeman and this looks a decent match up for the Premier League team.
Good Luck.
