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Below is a copy of yesterday's free clubgowi newsletter, this is sent out once or twice per month to everyone in my database , it always includes an update on what has been happening at clubgowi since the last issue and usually a couple of match or event previews. Yesterday's included notes on last night's Napoli -Udinese game which finished 5-1 and a look at the League 1 playoffs which start next week. Take a look ............
 
 
Tuesday May 11th
 
In this copy of the free newsletter a look at what you might have missed from the clubgowi website over the last month, a strong recommendation on one of the EFL playoffs and some notes on one of tonight's games, which were written Monday and early this morning respectively.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
League 1 playoffs:
 
Schedule :
 
Semi Finals first legs:
 
18 May 18:00 Oxford United- Blackpool
19 May 18:00 Lincoln City- Sunderland
 
Semi Finals second legs:
 
21 May 19:45 Blackpool- Oxford United
22 May 15:00 Sunderland- Lincoln City
 
Final : 30 May 15:00
 
OK, I will bite the bullet and say it, I am pretty good in the playoffs and have a remarkable postseason record, especially in League 1. Until Brentford went up to the Championship, it was the league I knew best and I still have a very good handle on it. Last two seasons that I have had an opinion (Rotherham 2018 and Charlton 2019 ) were both winners and to highlight that I remain in touch with League 1. I have discussed two third tier teams in depth this season and those notes are very relevant for the postseason, first up are Oxford United and I wrote the following about them back in November .........
 
Oxford United have two games in hand on most teams and if they win both, they could move up from 21st to circa 11th and within 6-7 points of the top 6 , that will remain their aim and they made a similar charge last season, something we discussed at the weekend.............
 
United have started this season poorly results wise, but performances have been much better and according to xP they should have additional 10 points on board and be above Rovers in the table. I suspect there has been a bit of a playoff final hangover from last season when Wycombe "robbed" them of a Championship place. I know the U's quite well, my brother in law and nephews live in the city and go to a few games and keep me updated, they felt they were the team hardest hit by the early end to last season, which is hard to argue with as they had all the momentum and were 15-6-5 across their last 26 games which would have put them on par with "champions" Coventry. The more eagle eyed amongst you will have noticed that run actually started from United's 10th start and today is their 10th game of this campaign. They beat Rovers 3-0 here last season ( 9-0 on target, 13-3 ITB, 0-6 saves) and I feel they are good value to follow up.
 
That game was cancelled with their opponent having COVID issues.
 
I have been able to look into the U's a little more, they have been hard hit by injury through the opening games, but are getting closer to full strength now and defender Elliott Moore said: “With the squad coming back to full fitness, people are fighting for places now, which we haven’t had for a long period because of the injuries.“Now we’ve got a lot of games coming up in a short period.“There is a line under (the season so far) and we begin again now. "Hopefully we get off to a good start.”
 
Star player James Henry told the local newspaper :  “I was playing in quite a bit of pain, just managing to get through.“It’s completely settled now and I’m raring to go and get back on-song.”The influential attacker believes it has been part of the explanation for what has been a slow start to the season by his usual high standards. He added that it also hampered the "gelling process" between him and new on field partnerships , but that it was now all coming together.
 
Head coach Karl Robinson gave an interesting interview to the Oxford Mail too, part of which read ......  KR has been buoyed by the results from the physical testing done with the squad late last week, which was made possible by Saturday’s postponement. There was already a feeling things were starting to come together after a chaotic beginning to the campaign.The data backs that up, but the head coach knows the only figure which really counts is the points column in the table.He said: “The players are fitter, the numbers are up from where they were at the beginning of the season.“Where we had a very small break in the summer and a small pre-season, that fatigue element was still there.“I’m looking now and I don’t see it as much.“I feel we’re in a good place, but it’s pointless me sat here speaking about that, results will be the judge of it.”He added: “We feel we have enough games in hand to mount a decent challenge.“What has become clear is I really do know where we need to improve.“The squad is really clear to me now for the first time.”
 
It all sounds very positive and if fitness levels, options/injuries have improved and numbers were already good, there is no knowing how far the U's could go. They are as big as 100-1 to win League 1 and 5.50-6.0 for another top 6 finish and I would be surprised if they did not at least put in a push for the latter at some stage.
 
We can definitely take a little on them to start the playoff run this evening.
 
If any of you took the big hint then you have already collected, as the U's finished 6th.
 
Then, on March 23rd I wrote in glowing terms about Blackpool ..............
 
Blackpool are unbeaten in 9 and have lost just 3/19, they are 10th, but have 2-4 games in hand on all bar one team above them and they would move in the playoff positions (6th) with all three points this evening. They were in the Premier League a decade ago and the Championship as recently as 2014-15, but had fallen on very hard times under the toxic ownership of Owen Oyston, who effectively asset stripped the famous old club. I spoke of this several times before a high court judge ruled that Oyston had illegally taken almost £27m out of the club (probably more) and the current owner was finally allowed to buy Blackpool from the receivers. Simon Sadler took charge in June 2019, he runs a Hong Kong based hedge fund, but is a local lad and has supported the Seasiders all his life.
 
Ahead of this season he spoke about his first year at the helm:
 

At just past 3pm on Thursday June 13th 2019 I became the owner and custodian of a famous institution, founded in 1887, which is known to us all as Blackpool Football Club.

As I reflect on my first year of ownership, my still fresh feelings of gratitude, responsibility and wonder are of course overshadowed by the Covid-19 pandemic and the havoc that has been wreaked throughout our lives and communities. I would like to send my sincerest condolences to those of you that have lost loved ones during this period. I would also like to express my heartfelt gratitude to all of you who work for the NHS and the emergency and essential services which have kept Blackpool and the surrounding areas going through this difficult time.

My first anniversary has coincided with a busy and important week in the life of the Club with the announcement of the curtailment of the 2019/20 season and the release of the player retained list. I would like to thank all of the players and coaching staff for their efforts during the season and wish all those leaving us good luck for the future.

Blackpool was one of the eighteen League One clubs which voted to end the season. Our Club’s decision was the result of many hours of debate between The Board, Head Coach Neil Critchley and me. Right up until an hour before our vote was due, we were agonising over our three options of curtailing, playing on or abstaining. In the end, our decision to vote to curtail was based upon many reasons, not least of which because, given our mid-table position, we had little to aim for. Of course, we also considered our primary responsibility to safeguard the health of our staff, as well as the cost of staging matches behind closed doors. Very importantly we spoke at length with Neil as to what he wanted. Neil assured us that in the time he’d spent with the squad, he had made the necessary assessments such that he felt that, with the right additions and a solid pre-season, we would be prepared for the start of the next season, whenever that may be.

When I bought the Club in mid-June of last year I did not anticipate to be on my third manager by February of this year. Terry McPhillips departed abruptly in early July. His departure left us without a manager, an assistant manager or a goalkeeping coach just weeks before the start of the season. At that point it made sense to turn swiftly to Simon Grayson given his familiarity with the Club, as well as his outstanding record of four League One to Championship promotions. Following an encouraging start and some thrilling matches against the likes of Peterborough and Fleetwood, our season fell away rapidly over the Christmas and New Year period. With the addition of a strong recruitment team, led by Tommy Johnson, we had in place a plan to strengthen the squad in the January window. It was frustrating for me to watch our performances fall apart as that recruitment plan was being executed and strong additions were being made to the playing squad. In the end the decision to part ways with Simon was less about the poor results on the pitch but more about the Board’s growing concerns that we were not building in the right way. We seemed frequently to change tactics but we did not appear to have a defined playing philosophy.

The search for Simon’s successor was deliberately thorough and detailed. With the prospects of reaching the play-offs greatly diminished, we felt comfortable that David Dunn and Tommy Johnson would ensure that we stayed safe and we were in fact heartened by the immediate improvement in our performances which we saw under their leadership. I will always be grateful to them for stepping up in the manner in which they did.

We needed, however, to find a Head Coach to help us define and implement the Blackpool footballing philosophy. I thought back to when I had flown over from Hong Kong in late September to watch the Friday night Lincoln game. The next day I was jet-lagged and at about 4.30am, in the driving rain, I decided to retrace the footsteps of my childhood. As I walked along the Promenade I could see how many people were already working in the hotels – cleaning up from the day before and preparing for breakfast. It reminded me how hard people in Blackpool work, that people go there to enjoy themselves and that it was my duty to ensure that that was reflected on the pitch with hard-working and organised players who deliver an entertaining brand of football, with an emphasis on youth and development. After assiduously researching the managerial and coaching landscape, I have little doubt that in Neil Critchley we have found the man to deliver that vision.

One of the first things that I did after buying the Club was to appoint to the Board Brett Gerrity, a fellow Seasider and long-standing and trusted friend to be my eyes and ears on the ground. He would turn up to the stadium most days and report back to me and as he did so the enormity of what I’d taken on began to dawn on me. The interim management had done a solid job at preparing the Club for sale but over those first few weeks and months it became increasingly apparent that I needed people with the experience of running community-focused football clubs on budgets appropriate to their circumstances. I was pleased to announce first Linton Brown to oversee our commercial efforts and then Ben Mansford as Chief Executive. I honestly believe that in the four of us the Club now has as hard-working and passionate a Board and management team as any in the EFL.

We have achieved much off the field in the past year. There has been significant investment in the stadium. This investment will necessarily be ongoing after years of neglect. We have improved the club shop, our online presence and the ticketing process. There are further improvements to come. We’ve rebuilt relations with the Community Trust, the local council, local businesses and the wider community. We are in the process of installing a new, purpose-built modular building at Squires Gate. The playing surfaces both there and at Bloomfield Road are vastly improved. We have increased staffing across media, finance and marketing and I am grateful for the hard work and dedication of all of our non-playing staff, most of whom are currently furloughed. I very much look forward to the day when they can safely return to work.

Looking ahead, the Club clearly needs a modern training facility where the entire football operations can work together in one location. Negotiations are ongoing to secure our preferred site whilst designs of a building and pitch lay-out are currently being refined. We are also excited by the prospect of wider regeneration in the Revoe area and have had early stage discussions as to what that could mean for our East Stand development.

Now to you, the fans. I am truly grateful for the manner in which you have supported both the Club and me personally during the last year. Whilst the match versus Southend on March 9th 2019 was The Homecoming, the first match of the season on August 3rd versus Bristol Rovers felt like my homecoming. I have never had the temerity to imagine that my name would be sung at Bloomfield Road but to have that happen and to be referred to as “one of our own” is truly beyond my wildest dreams. After over twenty years working abroad, I truly feel that I have been welcomed back to my home town. But it’s not about me, it’s about us and our love and support for our town and our club. That day in August was the beginning of a new era for us all and I relish the prospect of leading us forward as club custodian. Please rest assured that whilst mistakes will undoubtedly be made along the way, we will continue to make careful and deliberate decisions which, to the greatest extent possible, will be in the interests of all stakeholders alike.

The outlook for football outside of The Premier League is very concerning. We want to plan for the future and the 2020/21 season but in all honesty we are unsure as to exactly what we are planning for. We have no visibility as to when next season will start and, of course, we have no idea when or how you, our fans, will be able to return. I want to back Neil and to invest in the playing squad but it is very challenging to do so against this uncertain backdrop. Additionally, whilst you can rest assured that I have the immediate wherewithal to ensure that the club will survive this crisis as I currently see it, the pandemic has truly exposed the need for a restructuring in football’s finances. I fear that over the coming months many clubs at our level may just not be able to continue and quite what that means for us, the season ahead and for football in the EFL is impossible to predict.

In my opinion, for football to emerge largely unscathed from this difficult period, things will surely have to change. However I strongly believe that we, at Blackpool Football Club, are on the right path. In order to be successful, all clubs will need to be less reliant on the blunt tool that is money spent on players wages. It is imperative that more emphasis is placed upon developing your own talent. I believe that the three pillars of our future success will be our Academy, our recruitment and our coaching.

I’ll wrap up by thanking my family and particularly my wife Gillian for their unwavering support. I took ownership of the Club at a point in time when I would otherwise have looked to spend more time with Gillian and my two young kids. We have had to make significant adjustments to our family life in order to make room for the Club and I am grateful for their ongoing patience, support and understanding.

I hope that all of you stay safe and well and I look forward to the day when we can all meet again at Bloomfield Road.

 

This is a club who could have a big couple of seasons and they are worth keeping an eye on. Critchley is well respected and left his position in charge of Liverpool's U23 team to take up the role, he was hand-picked by the FA to take UEFA’s first elite badge course and is one of just 16 holders of the highest coaching qualification in football.
 
He was given time to look at the squad and he has overseen an enormous number of transfers in and out of the club over the last 9 months. The 15 who played last weekend included seven signed from a higher level or the U23 teams of (Everton/Arsenal/Man Utd) which is no surprise given the background of the head coach and why perhaps it has taken a while for the team to gel and Blackpool to build up a head of steam.
 
Perhaps Critchley's best signing has been Colin Calderwood as his assistant, he led both Nottingham Forest and Northampton to promotion as head coach, setting defensive records at the Cobblers and since his arrival at Blackpool, the club have conceded just 14 goals in 24 starts.This is all the more remarkable as Blackpool have been dealing with real injury issues at the back and they will be forced into their 9th different CB partnership this evening, every time previously Critchley and Calderwood have come up with a game plan to handle the situation and will need to do so again. I will suggest something small tonight, but this is more about highlighting Blackpool as a team for the coming weeks and months.
 
XP puts Blackpool only 5 points behind Posh with two games in hand , instead of the "real" 13 points and xGF sees a 14 goal swing in favour of the Tangerines.
 
That was a seriously good preview, at the time the Seasiders were 12th and 13 points off third place and remember, we are talking about just 7 weeks ago,  they finished third , three points ahead of the team in 4th !
 
I admit that I have impressed myself by re-reading those notes this morning !
 
 
Last 15 seasons:  Teams finishing 3rd have won six times, the team in 4th five times ,  6th on three occasions, the side who ended in 5th just once and that was 15 seasons ago, so they are currently running at  0/14 ! It is Lincoln City (5th) who are trying to buck that trend but they also have some poor second half of the season numbers ( see below) to overcome
 
In terms of points won in h2h round robin matches (games between the four teams this season): Blackpool 11 points, Sunderland 10, Lincoln City 8 , Oxford United 4.

Points picked up over the second half of the season :  Blackpool 46 pts (+12), Sunderland 38 (-1), Oxford 37 (0), Lincoln 29 (-19).

 
 
Figures in brackets are the differential between points won in the second and first half of the campaign, so Pool picked up 12 more over the final 23 games, than through the first 23, they are the only team on plus numbers and it is a very big one. Charlton were the only team with a plus second half of the season number when they won in 2019 and I made a big thing of that at the time, but they were +5 , the Seasiders are +12 and they have come on strong through an incredibly draining season when everyone was struggling with the shortened season in terms of start and finish, whilst still shoehorning 46 games into the equation ! It is hugely impressive and 2 points per game over a full season is enough to have won League 1 with a degree of comfort. Blackpool won both h2h games with Sunderland without conceding. I can see no reason why they are not favourites and whilst Sunderland would not be promoted out of turn, Blackpool have to be a very strong bet and I take them to see off the Black Cats at Wembley.
 
 
3 units Blackpool to win the League 1 playoffs @ 3.75 general quote.
 
 
Serie A: Napoli- Udinese
 
I spoke often in mid season of Udinese having some terrific numbers and being as good as almost anyone defensively and in a false position in the league. Results subsequently picked up, but have fallen away recently with little at stake and sitting in mid table safety and they have conceded more, being without a clean sheet in nine starts and their only two wins in that sequence coming against bottom three opposition.
 
Napoli have appeared regularly in my notes, most recently at the weekend ahead of that 4-1 win at Spezia where they were 3-0 up by the break and took four key players off with circa 20 minutes to spare and today and the remaining fixtures in mind. It is on the road that we like them best and rarely back them as host domestically, but they are in charge of their own fate now and three wins will bring Champions League football back to San Paolo. Napoli have conceded in their last five home starts, including 3 times to basement club Crotone and twice to Lazio, but won both, scoring 9 goals, they did draw here to Cagliari (1-1) in their last home start, but have scored 12 times in total next time out at home after the last three games in which they have dropped points as hosts. We can call it the fear of Gennaro Gattuso of the Gattuso bounceback, whichever it is, you do not want him asking about a second "no show" in a row.
 
Home win has to be the call, but odds are less than useless, Napoli won the reverse fixture 2-1 and the last three h2h meetings here in Napoli 2-1/4-2/4-2 and we can expect something similar today and get good odds about it.
 
 
1.75 units Napoli to win and both teams to score 2.85 + ..........3.0 Pinnacle.
 
 
Good luck !

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