Many of you, including everyone in the clubgowi database will have read my League 1 pre-season preview, it was written at the end of July and in it I put up two long term bets on Gillingham, if you did not see it, those notes can be read below. This week on the subscriber newsletter i am going to take a quick look at all our long term positions and I started today with League 1...........
My pre season notes are reproduced below and I have to be very pleased with our position on Gillingham. We are 12 games in, just over a quarter of a way through the season and they are in third, just a single point off first place and perhaps just as importantly, six clear of 7th placed Southend. We have great value with our win odds of up to 41.0 which now trades at 9.0-10.0 and the 5.50 for top six is quoted at a maximum 1.91 .
There was interest in a couple of their players towards the end of the transfer window and I do not doubt that there will be again in January, but owner Paul Scally made a very firm statement about them , especially Bradley Dack (pictured), and also his ambitions for the club, which we spoke about ahead of their early season win over Doncaster Rovers .....
They won that 2-0 and were a minute away from a road win at Peterborough last week, but probably best news was that they kept hold of Bradley Dack and all their other young stars in the transfer window, there was a lot of interest in the 21 yo midfielder, but Gills owner Paul Scally made a big statement of intent with his bold comments: “There is no money that would buy Bradley Dack at the moment, nothing at all, all of the players are priceless right now because they are important to what we are trying to achieve. "We are trying to get into the Championship, which makes everyone’s life a lot easier because of the income that generates."
The Gills have already won on the road at both Chesterfield and Bradford City teams that will improve as the season progresses ,not many will do that double and they have also beaten two of the division's "big" teams in Wigan Athletic and Sheffield United at home, by a combined 6-0 and the bigger the game and stage, the better Gillingham have played. We can also take heart from the fact that they have already bounced back from their first mini blip and there will aways be those along the way over 46 games and they are posing a huge offensive threat, scoring 11 goals in their last three starts, including five for Rory Donnelly who is another player flourishing and whom we highlighted in pre season (see below). This is a young , fast improving squad, with goal scoring options, who would walk into most League 1 teams, unable to claim a regular starting place at the moment .
Next two games see them travel to basement club Crewe Alexandra and then host Scunthorpe United , before being asked bigger questions at the end of this month when they host Southend United who have featured heavily in recent newsletters and then visit current leaders Walsall and we will know more about their real title credentials by then. Anyway, a good chance to get 4-6 points from their next two and this is not a team I see dropping away, or out of the top six anytime soon and we can continue to get a lot of enjoyment out of our bets on the Gills.
Good Luck.
League 1 outright: (written July 31st)
I am holding off on most of my long term ideas this season, it might be that I will get involved next month, after we have seen a few games and the transfer window has closed, but for now we have the bet on Brentford in the Championship, I am going to put up a "big" odds selection for League 1 today and will have a suggestion for the EPL next week, but that will be it for now, at least pre season.
Last ten automatic promoted teams from L1 have consisted of two who were relegated the previous season , one who was third and another who finished 7th, so, only one team who competed in the playoffs , which I feel is noteworthy, one out of 15 who were competitive the year before managed to finish top 2 in the following campaign and that was a Brentford team who were an exceptional L1 team and thrived in the Championship the next season and this is obviously not an easy division in which to put in a big push over back to back seasons.
That might make things difficult for Chesterfield, Sheffield United and Swindon Town and there are other reasons to look beyond these three anyway, but I will save those for our match reviews later in the season.
The other six automatically promoted teams all finished betweem 10th-15th and with the exception of Bournemouth, who were heavily bank rolled, you could make a case for the other five all being "big" clubs at this level. Spots 10-15 were taken by Fleetwood, Barnsley, Gillingham, Doncaster, Walsall and Oldham last season, you could make a case for Barnsley fitting the "bigger" club mould and they could go well. They collected 36 points over the second half of the season, which would have equated to 5th over a full 46 games and boss Lee Johnson got them up and running after joining in February from Oldham Athletic and they have potential.....for example, all 2,000 tickets for the opening day trip to Chesterfield will be sold by the end of today.
However, their squad looks a little lacking in depth and this needs to be addressed , but they are looking at a potential windfall due to a sell on clause for John Stones and this could be as much as £4-5m if he moves, as expected, to one of the big 4 and those funds could go a long way in League 1.
I can also make a case for Bradford City who have thrilled everyone with their cup exploits in recent seasons and just missed out on the post season last time round, finishing 7th. They are another big club in L1 terms and meet most of the criteria, but their pitch was in a terrible condition last season and despite heavy investment in that during the off season, there are still concerns that it will again cut up , which will not do them any favours. A futher concern about both the Bantams and Tykes, is the number of intense Yorkshire derbies in this division with Sheffield United and Doncaster Rovers all in the third tier, Chesterfield is only a bus ride from Sheffield and these are a lot of matches to play where more than just three points are up for grabs.
Anyway, I think City and Barnsley could go well and I might back one of them later in the season, but for now I want to look elsewhere.........
The team that has caught my attention is Gillingham and they are a "working man's" price at circa 33-1 / 40-1.
The Gills also made a managerial change mid season with Justin Edinburgh arriving from Newport County in early February. The former Tottenham player who spent a decade at White Hart Lane, saved County from relegation and took them to the FA Trohy final in his first season in charge and back into the Football League in his second, when he left they were 6th in League 2, they finished in 9th , averaging 0.7 points per game less, after his departure. Gills picked up an additional 0.43 per game after he arrived ( up to 1.61 pts pg) which would have given them 74 over the full season, enough for a playoff spot in each of the last five seasons.
He rather quickly identified what was wrong at Priestfield and that was a defence which conceded far too freely, especially on the road and made sorting that out a priority for the off season.
He signed left back and Ireland U21 international Bradley Garmston from WBA and central defender Max Ehmer from QPR on permanent deals after the pair spent time at the club on loan in the second half of last season. Gills were 5-3-1 with Garmston in the team and they won 12 of 27 (44%) starts with Ehmer in the back line, just 4 of 19 (21%) otherwise. I understand that both could have joined Championship teams and I really like that they have bought into the Gillingham project. Right back Ryan Jackson has arrived from Edinburgh's former club and is obviously a player he knows well and is said to be very quick, when he played County won 7% more matches and if that doesn't sound too much, that equals 10 points per season.
19 yo Jordan Houghton has signed on loan until Janauary from Chelsea where the defensive midfielder was U21 captain and is well thought of, having signed a three year contract last season. Speaking about this deal Edinburgh said: “Jordan is a very hungry young player who has had an excellent grounding at Chelsea; he won the Youth Cup the season before last, playing an integral part in the process, and has represented his country at three different age groups.“He is a terrific addition to our squad and I look forward to working with him.” Also signed until January is Cardiff City central defender Adedeji Oshilaja who was a big hit at AFC Wimbledon on a lengthy loan last season, he has been very impressed by the young talent at Gillingham and said: " I don’t see why we can’t be going for the play-offs." I am an ambitious person anyway and everyone else is ambitious here as well."
Up front, Luke Norris is a player I know well from time time at Brentford, he fell just short of the grade there, but is strong, tall and quick with an eye for goal and having only just turned 22 this month, is still improving and has time on his side, Cody McDonald is a prolific lower league striker with 61 league goals in 134 appearances for the Gills and he has scored at least 16 goals in each of his three full seasons in Kent.They are good options, but Edinburgh has added to them with the signing of Rory Donnelly from Swansea and Ben Williamson who decided to move here instead of signing a new contract at Port Vale. What I really like about all the additions is that they had options, in some cases more attractive looking ones and it just feels this is a team on the fringe of something big.
Edinburgh feels he might have found a hidden gem in Emmanuel Osadebe who came from Tottenham Hotspur’s foundation college programme, he was signed late last season , with the idea that he would play a few development games, which he did, impressing everyone in the process, he has been fast tracked to the first team squad and started a couple of pre season games, anyway, anything from him will be a bonus.
Gills caught my attention last season not only by their results at the end of the campaign, but how comfortable they looked against the better teams, beating MK Dons ( 2nd) 4-2, Sheffield United (5th) 2-0 and Swindon Town (4th) away 3-0 , also drawing 0-0 with champions Bristol City on the road. They have clearly strengthened significantly and they look certain to step up on last season's 12th placed finish, supporters are getting very excited and believe this is the best squad the club have had since 2000 when they made it to the now Championship for the first time. There is a little 2.50 around to finish top half if you can find it and obviously I feel that is good value, but we can be a little more adventurous...........
1 unit Gillingham to win League 1 @ 34.0 general quote.....there is a little circa 41.0 around.............this is a "cheap" bet and I think you will get a good run for your money !
1.5 units Gillingham to finish top six 5.0-5.50 general quote.
Good Luck.
