Coupe de la Ligue betting preview : Bordeaux- Lorient
Jan 12, 2016
Coupe de la Ligue: Bordeaux- Lorient
We have spoken a lot in recent campaigns about the increased number of goals in this competition and there are a mountain of notes on that, the shift is more dramatic over early rounds, but ahead of the last 16 games last month my notes read.........
We have spoken often about early rounds in this competition producing more goals than standard Ligue 1 or 2 games and that remains true, albeit not quite to the same degree, over the later stages when teams do take the chance to win some silverware more seriously. Last five seasons of "Round of 16" matches have seen 52.5% go "over" with 30% producing four or more and that is still significantly above the league averages this season of circa 40% and 20% respectively. Home wins have been running at 52.5% also and that is way above the norm and they were 62.5% for the previous five years before last season. You could view that as a "shift", but was more likely a blip and a good starting point for looking at this round of games is that they will have a strong home bias and produce more goals, both of which make sense anyway, with teams already having one eye on the mini Christmas break and starting to tire a little at the end of the first half of the campaign.
Those eight games saw five home wins ,hitting exactly that 62.5% number (see above), with an average of 2.75 goals per game (4 "overs") and in terms of what we were expecting, they played out as they should. Last 20 quarter finals have produced 12 (60%) home wins and games have averaged exactly 3.0 goals with just two (10%) draws. This is kind of perfect for betting purposes and a fantastic starting point for looking at games and it has to be said that the Coupe de la Ligue has been very kind to those of you/us who actually choose to read the notes !
These two are both in mid table and will surely give the competition their very best shot now that we are down to just eight teams. Lorient arrive without Waris and Moukandjo who have 15 goals between them, but they managed three against Dijon in the last round without top scorer Moukandjo, or a contribution from Waris and they have scored five in their last two starts with their top man sidelined, it is not perfect, but we know that they have goals in them regardless. The clubs have already played out a five goals thriller (along with two late red cards ) in Lorient and four of the last five meetings have had at least five goals, including three 3-2 home wins, two to Bordeaux.
The hosts are already without centre back Nicolas Pallois who has been a very naughty boy and is suspended for three months, Henri Saivet is on his way to Newcastle United and they have several injuries, but are treating the game seriously and withdrew a couple of players early from games last week with this match in mind. Head coach Willy Sagnol (pictured) said he pulled out key player Nicolas Maurice-Belay after an hour at the weekend so that he could feature today and that kind of tells us all we need to know and ten of the eleven who ended the match on Saturday and nine starters are in the squad tonight.
I like Bordeaux, but feel that their odds are about right currently and betting wise prefer the over as I see goals in this, even with Lorient missing two strikers, the competition is full of them and backed up by history when these two face off. 3-2 home win will do !
I will go with 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.
However, Bordeaux have scored only one of 14 home Ligue 1 goals in the opening 30 minutes and they can ............rest of this match preview is only available to subscribers to the full newsletter service.
Bordeaux : Carrasso, Bobe, Contento, Guilbert, Sané, Yambéré, Ambrose, Khazri, Maurice-Belay, Ounas, Plasil, Poko, Traoré, Vada, Crivelli, Jussiê, Rolan, Touré
Lorient : Lecomte, Chaigneau, Paye, Touré, Karamoko, Bellugou, Guerreiro, Le Goff, Fofana, Mesloub, Ndong, Mulumba, Abdullah, Jouffre, Philippoteaux, Lavigne, Jeannot, Traoré
Good Luck.
Subscribing to clubgowi need not break the bank.. Find out more by visiting our subscriptions page.
Country:
Sport: