Nathan Jones...............you've been gone too long !
Reading lost 3-0 at home to Brentford in midweek............
This is a very short trip for the Bees and the Madejski stadium is a happy hunting ground for them having won on 4/6 visits here , the 3-2 loss in 2017 is a game I spoke about a lot that season as the injustice of it was used to inspire/motivate Brentford by the coaching staff on numerous occasions , the game should have ended 1-5 with the away team running the Royals ragged for 90 minutes. Anyway it should be 5/6 wins in this series, the other loss was last season and under very different circumstances, with Reading desperate for the points and Brentford having a limited amount to play for. There is a rivalry between the two teams and Brentford will want some pay back and this time the points are valuable to them and less so to Reading who are a net -192 ITB for the season and the two clubs posting "reverse" numbers for the last 10 starts(Brentford 94-64, Reading 62-95). XP also gives the Bees an additional 23 points in hand over the Royals, who will be without suspended centre back Matthew Miazga who is on loan from Chelsea.
Bees won ITB 12-0 , it is very difficult not to have an attempt inside the box in 94 minutes of football, so all "credit" to the Royals for that ! It was a dismal showing from them and as good as Brentford were, there is no excuse for the lack of effort/belief and heads dropping late in the game and their ITB total of -45 for the last 11 games is second worst in the Championship.
Luton have drawn with Preston (6th at the time), Leeds (first) and won away to Swansea (8th) since the restart and now have Wigan "below" them and six teams within six points , ahead of the win in South Wales I noted ....................
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I sided with Town at home to Preston last Saturday at big odds off level ball .............
Fish and chips, salt and pepper, gin and tonic, some things are just meant to go together and I am starting to get the feeling that Nathan Jones and Luton Town are similarly matched. He took charge in January 2016 with the club struggling in League 2, when he left almost exactly three years later Town were on the cusp of the Championship and Jones had posed an incredible 71-40-28 record at the club, averaging 1.82 points pg and playing a very particular style and system. Prior to the start of this campaign I wrote about this............
Luton Town were playing non league football in 2018 and League 2 level as recently as 2018, they were League 1 champions last season and they and Barnsley were stats wise head and shoulders above the other teams in the third tier. They had two full/wing backs in James Justin and Jack Stacey who were effectively PL quality in League 1, both have now moved to the Premier league and are irreplaceable. They will stick with the diamond favoured and introduced by Nathan Jones now of Stoke City and interim boss Mick Harford did a wonderful job to just carry on that work and run with it. Town were a VERY good League 1 team, but it is a big step up and they have come a long way quickly, Town have lost their two stand out players and have a new boss in Graeme Jones who is a very well respected coach, but we have no idea if he is a head coach and not all make the step up.
In this narrow diamond, the full backs are key, the two replacements to Justin and Stacey were always likely to be lower quality and they are ! Most of the rest of this squad have little experience of this level and such rapid promotions usually catch up with teams eventually.
Now Jones is back after a bit of a disastrous spell at Stoke City who did not have the players to play how he wanted and the head coach seeming unable or unwilling to cut his cloth to compensate for that. I suspect that was a wake up call, as was the 7 months spent on the managerial "scrapheap". It was kind of brave of Town to take him back, but given their league position I suppose you could also argue there was little to lose and everything to gain. At his first press conference Jones spoke of his "regret" and "remorse" over the way he initially left the club and that he understood the mixed fan reaction to his exit and return, with hopes that he can earn their trust back.The players have taken less convincing and striker James Collins called the appointment a ‘stroke of genius’, in an interview with the local paper he went on to say:
“I loved it as I really get on with the gaffer and even when he left for Stoke I still kept in contact with him.“We got on really well and to be fair I think it’s a stroke of genius getting him back as managing wise, I think he is the best chance of us staying up this year.“He knows all the lads, he knows the way we play, he knows the club and I think the lads are really happy to have him back and so am I.“He knows over 80 per cent of the squad and he probably signed them all, apart from the ones that have come in this year.“That’s part of the reason he wanted to come back because he knew what a good squad he had and good characters.“I think he can see from the lads and how they’ve been in training – and the new lads he hasn’t worked with before – there was a real spark about training and it seems like they’ve got a bit of a fresh start.“He hasn’t changed one bit either.“He’s the same Nathan he was when I signed for him three seasons ago.“He’s really enthusiastic, with a great work ethic, demanding and obviously a joy to work with, so not a lot has changed at all.”
Jones has had three weeks with the squad and oversaw a 4-2 win against a strong Brentford B team in midweek, I saw some highlights from that and they looked more adventurous and like the Luton of old, he was very involved and animated on the sidelines and I just get the feeling we might see a very different Luton over the last nine rounds.
Preston are the better team through 37 games and by some way, they are a net +156 ITB for the season, but only +10 for the last eight games through which they have given up the 5th most attempts on their own goal and 12 more than Town. PNE have also been holding onto sixth and that final playoff spot by just a single point for months and that might well have increased the pressure on them. PNE have lost their last three starts, all by 2+ goals.
This is a poor quality Championship, but I am still not certain that North End are of the level required for top 6 and I see this as the potential upset of the day.
Today feels like a big ask for Town given Swansea's eye-catching away win last weekend and they are hunting down a top 6 finish, but that is factored into the odds and those are big for today. Nathan Jones feels the Luton squad have thrived this week and come into this game much sharper and Town found a way back into the game last week and are just not used to losing when Jones is in charge, with just 28 defeats in 140 games, a 20% loss rate, so I think we have a to chance a little on them to get a point or better at such big odds.
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Really proud of those notes and picking up on the Hatters to improve, under Jones they have now lost just 28/141 and that is a ridiculous record and being able to bet a team that hard to beat and I repeat what I wrote ahead of the trip to Elland Road in midweek that this is a very different Luton again now, versus a "broken" opponent with nothing to play for, at such big odds, is a no brainer.
2 units Luton Town -0.25 ball 2.24 asian line/Sportmarket.
Stay safe and good luck !
Inside the Box (ITB) explained:
If you come across any clubgowi previews you are likely to see ITB stats quoted................
Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net . ITB numbers tell you which teams are creating these "quality" chances , who is giving them up and which teams are improving in both categories.
I think the real value of ITB might be once the numbers start to turn, that improvement in performance may not always be reflected immediately in results, so we will have an edge "knowing" when teams are starting to sort out those issues OR falling into bad habits, which is just as valuable. I like expected goals/points numbers too, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But in actual fact I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.
ITB stats are exclusive to clubgowi and are currently produced for 10 leagues and the format improved upon week on week and are a "must have" betting aid/tool.
