Championship betting preview.........
Dec 29, 2022
Championship:Blackburn Rovers- Middlesbrough
Plenty of notes on these two since the restart, pretty much all in a negative fashion about the hosts and positive for Boro. I opposed Rovers in their last two home games and they lost both by the same 4-1 scoreline, ahead of the second I wrote ......
Forest have sold an incredible 6,500 tickets for this fixture. I say incredible as they are 18th in the EPL, have won just three league games and are facing a Championship side they have met in each of the last nine seasons. It is also a 3 hour + trip by road or rail on a midweek night (working day) in Christmas week, it is terrific support and should ensure that the Tricky Trees give of their very best. As of last Thursday, Rovers had sold 3,500 tickets, pretty sure that will increase following the win at Norwich on Saturday, but they were booed off the pitch at the end of both half and full time in their last home game, a 4-1 defeat to neighbours Preston North End, ahead of which my notes included ..........
The Rovers numbers are too poor to ignore and right across the board. PNE are a net +5.5 xG, +7 BC's and +33 for ITB attempts over Rovers for the last six games and have played a very similar level of opposition. They will have 4,000-5,000 supporters in the stadium, despite the early kick off, weather and England game, and North End arrive with pretty much a fully fit squad. Blackburn have strong home form, but we have been here before with them and their form has dropped off after a fast start before, last season they were 10-3-2 at Ewood and then went 2-2-4 and their numbers strongly indicate that they have been riding their luck.
Rovers played well at Carrow Road on Saturday, so a bit Jekyll and Hyde over those two starts, but issues overall with their numbers and it was Norwich who allowed Blackburn to up their game as City were clueless around their opponents penalty area. Forest did go into the break on the back of three decent performances, a 2-2 draw with Brentford, 2-0 win over Spurs in this competition and 1-0 defeat of Crystal Palace and will surely want to continue to build momentum. Rovers do not have the depth for a deep cup run and all energies should be directed at the league where they are well placed, head coach John Dahl Tomasson has gone with youth in the cup to date and easy to see him giving priority to the Boxing Day trip to Sunderland. Forest have won on their last two trips to Ewood Park (2-0 last season, February this year) and the hat-trick is on the cards.
Blackburn have subsequently lost 2-1 away to Sunderland who also had poor numbers, so hard to cling on to too many positives for the Lancashire side. They have a number of injury issues and the local newspaper highlighted those .......
Blackburn Rovers will be without a handful of players for tomorrow night's clash against Middlesbrough, including Tyrhys Dolan.Midfielder Dolan suffered an injury to his groin in their Carabao Cup tie loss against Nottingham Forest and was forced to sit-out their last match against Sunderland. Star man Ben Brereton Diaz picked up a knock against the Black Cats on Boxing Day and it remains to be seen whether he will be fit to face Boro.Others that might be on the sidelines for tomorrow night's match are midfielder Sam Szmodics, who limped off the pitch in training on Christmas Day before missing the Sunderland game, as well as Jack Vale and Hayden Carter, who are both nursing hamstring injuries.
Brereton Diaz is their best player by far, his contract runs out in the summer and this window is the last to get a return and whilst both club and player might be content to wait until the summer, it will cost Rovers money they can probably ill afford and I doubt BBD will rush back today, until he sees exactly what is on the table and Leeds United amongst others are said to be interested.
Boro were highlighted in great detail in my Championship restart notes (see below) and they have lost only to leaders Burnley in seven starts, scoring for fun, 16 goals total, they will have a sold out away end ( 4,000 + for league games) supporting them and a far more upbeat following than Rovers will enjoy and I cannot oppose them today.
2.25 units Middlesbrough -0.5 ball 2.41 asian line.
Good luck!
Written December 7th
Having discussed two teams in detail last week, I have to at least talk a little about Middlesbrough today. They are currently 15th, but only six points off 4th place and arguably the #1 expected team ( #2 if not!) . Boro finished 7th last season which is kind of ideal if you are not going to be promoted, as it is a strong placing and spares teams the anguish of missing out in the postseason and avoids the shortened off season. They came into this campaign full of optimism, head coach Chris Wilder had taken Sheffield United up and Boro were much improved after his arrival in November last year, being top 5 in all statistical categories. However, he was sacked in October with Boro bottom three and having won just 2/11 starts and the word amongst supporters and I am only repeating what I read, was that Wilder was pursuing his own agenda, totally intransigent with regard to formation and selection when things were clearly not working and had lost the support and respect of the players.
He was replaced by Michael Carrick (pictured) who was born and raised in the North East and spent 15 years at Manchester United as player and coach until last season . Carrick has collected 10 points from his first game in charge after unluckily losing the first and he has sorted out the defence immediately and the difference at the training centre under him and his coaching staff is said to be like night and day compared to the Wilder regime. That includes former players Grant Leadbitter and Jonathan Woodgate who was actually Boro head coach until his dismissal in 2020, so that is an odd one, but he was born and raised in the city and supported the club as a boy. Also, Aaron Danks joined the staff last week, he is young and well thought of and has been working at Aston Villa and also with the England U20 (World Cup winners) and U21 groups.
The Boro numbers are sensationally good , they have been all season really, but the results and goals are starting to come for Carrick , they have been free scoring on the road (13 in their last five) and now need to bring that flair to home games at the Riverside. I understand that they might bring in one or two in the January window and the coaching staff have a lot of contacts in the game between them to use in the loan market, but that they are pretty happy with the squad as it stands. The division looks weak, I discussed that last week and you can see how tight everything is, last season two teams picked up 50+ points from the final 25 games (the stage we are at now), Huddersfield Town (53) and Nottingham Forest (52) to move up from mid table into the top 4 and actually faced off in the playoff final and Boro have that potential and almost certainly don't need that number of points to break into the top 6. I can see the Championship table having a very different look in a couple of months time and Boro seem almost certain to put in a top 6 challenge.
We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.
Country:
Sport:
Competition:
Football Teams: