clubgowi previewed eight matches today (Capital One Cup, Champions League, Coupe de la Ligue) and you can read two on the website today as samples of the newsletter service, starting with .........
Champions League: Malmo FF- Celtic FC
We backed Malmo to beat Red Bull Salzburg for the second year running at home three weeks ago and they ran out comfortable 3-0 winners ( pre match notes below) which was an exact repeat of their win in the competition last season. However, this time round they still have one more tie to overcome to reached the promised land of the group stage, the value of which we spoke about earlier in the competition ......
all teams competing this week are looking for the holy grail, which in footballing terms is the Champions League group stage. Four of the teams who played at this stage made it through last year......Maribor, Malmo, BATE and Ludogorets, are all looking to repeat that feat and believe me, motivation will be even bigger this time round with a massive jump in prize money on offer, this year, just a spot in the group stage is worth 12m €, winning a match would earn 1.5m € and even a point 0.5m €.
That means you could finish bottom of your group with four points like the Bulgarian side Ludogorets did last year and collect a cool 14m €, that is the real attraction of Champions League football and is the equivalent for the "minnows" ( no offence to any, as they are all big clubs domestically), of Real, Barce or Bayern winning the competition.
MFF have won both home starts since that win over the Austrian giants and will be very pleased with their away goals in the 3-2 defeat at Parkhead , they were weakened in that game by suspensions, including one to striker and capatain Markus Rosenberg (see below), he scored against Red Bull and in both subsequent home games, including a win over league leaders and rivals IFK. He said his side is under no pressure, as expectations are low for Swedish teams, but added: “Having done it once, in your head, it is easier to do it a second time. "There is no pressure but we know what we can do in this stadium and with these fans anything is possible.“We have an extra boost with our fans, we have 20,000 here and it is tight and it gives players energy. "You feel that the fans are beside you.“The players from Salzburg, Sparta Prague, Olympiacos and even Atletico Madrid noticed the intensity. "That is one of the reasons we did so well in the qualifiers.“No one has scored against us here, we have a clean sheen sheet in qualifying last year and this year. "It will be a tough task but we are confident.”
Celtic will come with a more defensive mindset, but this is a dangerous place to sit back and they never play that way domestically, where they are expected to win every game, regardless of venue. This has not helped them in Europe and whilst their road form in the competition has improved a little, it was dire previously and they lost to BOTH Legia Warsaw and Maribor in the Champions League last season, later earning a reprieve against the Polish side. A win of almost any sort will be enough for MFF to progress, they are confident, stronger than for the first leg and I think we will see them on the front foot from the off tonight, with Celtic looking to keep things tight for as long as possible and I favour the home win.
1.5 units Malmo -0.25 ball asian line/Sportmarket.
MFF:Johan Wiland, Fredrik Andersson, Anton Tinnerholm, Andreas Vindheim, Kári Árnason, Rasmus Bengtsson, Carvalho, Yoshimar Yotún,Vladimir Rodic, Magnus Wolff Eikrem, Enock Kofi Adu, Oscar Lewicki, Guillermo Molins, Erdal Rakip, Markus Rosenberg, Nikola Djurdjic, Jo Inge Berget, Agon Mehmeti.
Good Luck.
Malmo FF- Red Bull Salzburg (Written August 5th)
Salzburg won the first leg 2-0 with two second half goals, the last of which came in the 89th minute courtesy of a "suspect" penalty, which was a little frustrating as we had taken MFF +1.25 goals, ahead of that match I wrote ......
I do not want to spend too long on this, Malmo will travel with confidence after knocking Red Bull out at the play off stage last season and the hosts look, at least right now weaker and less experienced, this time round. They have a huge number of young and inexperienced players looking to gel, with an average squad aged of just 22 and 21 of the group aged 22 or younger, with several teenagers likely to start and to implement a pressing style they are still coming to terms with. They created plenty of chances, but ultimately lost their opener to newly promoted SV Mattersburg at the weekend, they will not be as advanced in fitness terms as when they played MFF last year and the team is almost certainly not as strong. The visitors won for us at Zalgris Vilnius last week.............
Winner of this will tie ( first leg ended 0-0 in Sweden) will face a qualifying 3rd round match up with Red Bull Salzburg, that looks a big ask, but Malmo beat the Austrian side in the decisive Play-off round last season to make the group stage, winning the home leg 3-0 and will perhaps not be as fearful of Red Bull as the other teams in the competition at this stage. In the second round last year, the Swedish champions also make hard work of things, drawing 0-0 at home to FK Ventspils, before winning the second leg 1-0, they dominated both legs there creating a very similar number of chances and offensive opportunities in each and not allowing their opponent an attempt on target across the 180 minutes. Malmo played at a very similar level (identical record) both home and away last season and it has been pretty much the same story this time round.
The hosts have never made it beyond this stage in qualifying, losing in the second round three times at home without scoring, in the last two to Red Bull Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb, both by 2-0 , so a bit of a formline with the Austrians and Dinamo are far from the force of old. I think it will be tough for Vilnius to break that cycle and score and Malmo have scored in 12 straight road games and feel that there are clear indications that a recent dip in form is coming to an end. They performed really well in an away game to Orebro at the weekend, especially in the first half which they dominated and whilst they had to ultimately settle for a share of the points, there was a lot to take from the performance. They will be delighted with a first goal in five starts for Markus Rosenborg, who had seven goals in the competition last year in what was a hugeseason for him....25 goals and 15 assists in 45 appearances for MFF. If he can find that level, or even close, from now on in, it could be a big second half of 2015 for Malmo (17 of his goals last season came after the third week of July), for the moment, they will settle for a win this evening.
Malmo played a high energy game at Orebro and feel they have quite a big edge in fitness over Zalgris who looked exhausted at the end of the game last week and not having played a match in 24 days, last week aside, has probably blunted their match fitness. Several hundred visiting supporters have made the trip to Lithuania and can go home happy.
They won that 1-0, followed up with a 3-0 win at GIF at the weekend, with another goal from Rosenborg ( see above) and look to be running into form at the perfect time. They can make their fitness levels and high tempo style pay and go back to Sweden all square, or at worse with a minimum margin defeat.
Red Bull started very aggressively, but chances were at a premium before the break, MFF had a good chance for 1-1 before conceding that late second goal and that would have put a different complexion on the tie. However, I have to say that Salzburg deserved to win and coming here at 2-0 is very different from the 2-1 lead they held last year, but they will be mindful that they lost 3-0 in Sweden just 49 weeks ago and they again be greeted by a packed and noisy Swedbank Stadion, with the crowd doing their best for their team. MFF will play with high energy, they have a significant physical advantage and the vistors arrive without captain and star player Jonatan Soriano and several others including Marco Djuricin, Valentino Lazaro and Christian Schwegler and are a little short on the right flank and inexperienced in key areas and this might have more relevance this evening on the road. Salzburg have also lost their first two Bundesliga games, already trail leaders Rapid by six points and although Champions League is a priority, they will therefore have to take into account their trip to Admira on Saturday. Given that and the fact that they can lose by one (two if they score) and still qualify, I see decent value in the hosts at big odds against with the draw no bet option.
1.5 units Malmo level ball 2.36 asian line/Sportmarket .
