Brazilian football preview .................
Apr 23, 2022
Brazil: Serie A : RB Bragantino- São Paulo
Bragantino were a big favourite of ours last season, I latched onto them early in the campaign and they served us very well and were a very "clubgowi team" ,full of goals (at both ends of the pitch) and attacking intent, regardless of opponent. Two of their most exciting games that we covered came last June, notes on those are reproduced at the foot of this email and they beat two elite teams, Palmeiras (3-1) and Fluminense on the road 3-2 , they made us 21 + points of profit in a 7-10 day period then and were a Brazilian Sassuolo !
After matchday 1 last season I wrote .........
Yet another Red Bull team and big things were expected of Bragantino last season, but they started slowly and could "only" finish 10th. However, they ended the campaign on fire, picking up over 64% of points in the second half of the season, their goal difference of +10 was eye-catching and placed them 8th, but should have been so much better and xGF suggests they should have scored 9 more goals . They opened with a 3-0 win at Chapecoense and were 18-10 attempts, 8-2 on target, 12-5 ITB, 4-1 bC's and also hit the woodwork twice. Last season they were second to only champions Flamengo and CAM in terms of xGF and that is in all three categories, overall, home and away. They could be a very big player this season.
All the other background notes can be found below the "good luck" sign off.
RBB had a 2021 season to remember, they finished runner up in the Copa Sudamericana and 6th in the league, securing a first ever Copa Libertadores place, they were the third highest scorers in the league, but also conceded the most of any non relegated team. They are fun to watch ! They are both a typical modern football team and one from the Red Bull franchise, they are young, with a bright youthful head coach and like to press high and hard and that is something we still do not see much of in Brazil. They have a large scouting network in South America, looking for the brightest talent that the continent has to offer and have players from five regional countries in the squad. Which is the youngest squad in Serie A, but that was the case last season too and many of them will thrive and have improved, with the experience of such a campaign behind them.
They have four points and six goals on board from two league starts to date and have also posted two wins and a draw in two Copa Libertadores group stage games and a road win in the Copa do Brasil, scoring 2+ goals in all five starts. They do not fear anyone and will be up for this "derby" (SP is an hour away by road) against an illustrious opponent, but one who they finished 8 points and 7 places ahead of last season and did the double over.
Sao Paulo opened with a big home win, but in the last seven days have lost 3-1 away to Flamengo and drawn 2-2 at Juventude in the Cup (conceding 6 BC's total and being -12 for ITB attempts)and a third away start in a row is a big ask at this stage of the campaign and whilst it is not a lot in Brazilian terms, they have also clocked up 3,000 km in the process. RBB to edge this, but bigger odds and better value with .............
2 units RB Bragantino to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.79 asian line.
Good luck !
Brazil: Serie A: RB Bragantino- Palmeiras (written June 23rd)
OK, I will assume that no one reading these notes expected me to pass on this game and you were correct !
On Saturday, Bragantino went to two time defending champions Fluminense and I wrote ..............
Bragantino have been "our" team through the opening weeks of the new season and have served us well enough (actually we have been super unlucky) and landed that double bet in midweek when they won 2-1 in Sao Paulo to Corinthians. Those notes are reproduced in full at the foot of this email.
RBB trailed 1-0 at half time, but came out very strong after the break and totally dominated EVERY statistical category. It is going to take a huge performance for anyone to beat them and difficult to keep them from scoring a couple of goals in any game, they have a +1.0 xGD pg, averaging 2.5 goals, 20 attempts (!), 10.25 ITB, 6 on target and 2.5 BC's. They have a shoot on sight policy and this is keeping teams busy, meaning that their defensive numbers are good too.
Now they face a huge test, playing the best team in Brazil, on the road, on a quick turnaround , Flamengo not having had a midweek fixture. The home side are looking to complete a hat-trick of Serie A titles and also won the Copa Libertadores in 2019, it is rare to do the double and even tougher to then defend, so their #1 ranking is fully deserved and they have won both league starts this season without conceding, hosting two big teams and creating an enormous amount of chances and tonight really is a mouth watering prospect and for RBB, a chance to see where they stand in relation to the very best. FLA are deserved favourites, but it is quite rare for a three time champion in Brazil (plenty have tried), xGA suggests they should have actually conceded 1.8 goals and they have a whole host of players missing due to a variety of reasons, five on international duty alone. I just cannot let the huge odds on RBB pass and regardless of the eventual result, I don't think you should either !
2 units RB Bragantino level ball 4.96 asian line.
1 unit RB Bragantino "over" 1.5 goals @ 3.75 general quote.
RBB won 3-2 and on Sunday morning I updated with ...........Bragantino are quickly becoming my second favourite football team after turning Saturday around big time and providing some much needed 16 points profit on their own this week and I must admit to get a little overexcited when that late, late, late winner hit the back of the net. It was a fabulous game which provided incredible entertainment and it is very difficult to see either team losing too often this season. If you missed it, even just the goal highlights are worthwhile watching.
Palmeiras also served us well last midweek when they visited Juventude .............
These midweek games, once the season gets a few games in and teams start to reach maximum fitness and full potential, so from here on in, is when the bigger clubs have a huge advantage, especially against struggling/newly promoted teams and Juventude meet that criteria and Palmeiras the former as one of the biggest clubs in Brazil. Juventude has the lowest value squad in Serie A (Palmeiras is some 12-13 times greater) , also one of the smallest and oldest and it is not a great "treble" . Palmeiras have finished 1-2-1-3-7 in the last five campaigns, they will have been disappointed with last season's 7th place, but xP put them 2-3 places higher and they have a quality laden squad. They are 1-1-1 through their three starts, but they almost always take 3-4 games to build up a head of steam and they have played the champions and a big derby fixture, they won the other very comfortably, this is a game they will expect to win and whilst they are carrying a few injuries, that cannot be an excuse, they have a massive squad and all back ups called upon will probably be superior to anyone in the home squad. Away win.
They kindly won that 3-0 and to be honest, I wish that each of these two teams were playing someone else today, but odds are just great and there is slim to no chance that I am passing on RBB and slim just left town !
Palmeiras followed that up with a 2-1 home defeat of another newly promoted team in America Mineiro and that was a whole lot closer and a very open contest, with an even split from 27 attempts on goal, 16 ITB, 11 on target, with 3 MISSED BC's and 8 saves and three goals was pretty much the minimum the game could have produced and surely another mini shootout this evening.
Palmeiras won both league meetings last season, but RBB were a work in progress back then and still are to some degree, but much further down the transition line and usually fielding the youngest starting 11 in Serie A, they are only going to get better and probably quickly. Despite which they were a net +20 for attempts on goal in those two h2h games and are far more productive in front of goal now.
2 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.13 asian line.
1.75 units RB Bragantino -0.25 ball 2.29 asian line.
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