La Liga Football Betting Tips: Alaves-Espanyol/ Athletic-Villarreal/ Sporting-Sociedad

Nov 20, 2016

Three previews from Spain today, I cannot easily split them up as the notes are interconnected, Espanyol have just won 1-0, the others play later today.......

La Liga:

Alaves- Espanyol

Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal

The Alaves game is a morning kick off and starts in about an hour. I previewed Espanyol- Athletic Bilbao two weeks ago and my notes included detailed content on the home side , who had won at Real Betis for us seven days earlier.............

Espanyol won for us last weekend at Real Betis ...........

I previewed a couple of early season Espanyol games and ahead of their trip to Osasuna my notes went a lot like this ...........

Ahead of Espanyol's home game with Malaga, I spoke about their crazy ten goal season opener, their offensive signings and how there is increased pressure on the lesser La Liga clubs to entertain ........

Malaga are in the Ajaccio mode and rarely cut loose on the road, however, Juande Ramos is back in charge and got them playing some attractive football in pre season, when they scored a lot of goals, they struggled to break down an Osasuna side who came with only a point in mind last week and had to settle for 1-1, but the overall performance certainly offered promise and I do expect to see a more adventurous approach from them this season. That will go double and treble for Espanyol who opened with a 6-4 loss (!) at Sevilla, tough to score four on the road and not get a point, but I doubt they will abandon their attacking principles and will instead take heart from their offensive performance. The signings of Leo Baptistao, Pablo Piatti, José Manuel Jurado and José Antonio Reyes hardly hinted at a team who were going to sit back in any game, they are looking to strengthen defensively before the window closes, but right now look full of goals at one end and leaky at the other, I suspect they will be fun to watch all season and odds for this to provide some of that entertainment look on the big side.

The first round of games saw 40 goals , there were only 32 on opening day in the previous two seasons combined, the increased and more equal distribution of television money in Spain has meant increased pressure on teams to entertain and I feel that last week might not just be a blip, but an ongoing trend. There could mean value for us in early season if that is the case and before the oddsmakers fully catch up.

They shared four goals there and I expect the visitors to be involved in a lot of shoot outs this season. Then ahead of a road trip to Real Sociedad I updated with ............. Espanyol won 3-2 here (last season)and arrive in very confident mood today, maybe I would even call it "bullish", they seem to be expecting to win ! Since writing the above notes they have added veteran keeper Diego Lopez from Milan, forward Alvaro Vazquez from Getafe, midfielder David Lopez of Napoli and centre back Diego Reyes from Porto, all four have made the squad today.. They are still bonding and looking to gel, but their offensive prowess is a given ! As a team, they will surely be better in a month or two, but...........

They led there until late, having to ultimately settle for a point, they entertained Real Madrid at the weekend, started well and were on top, but lost Pablo Piatti to injury early in the game and it meant a change in game plan and significant reshuffle. Sergi Ramos had collected an early yellow card and the hosts were incensed that he did not get a second later in the half and then just before the break, Baptistao missed a good chance to score for Espanyol and a few seconds later they were trailing to a James goal as the first half expired !

They came out strong in the second period, then the match officials "missed" two more decisions , a "clear handball" and then a foul on Baptistao in the box. To say they were unhappy about all this played out is an understatement and they felt hard done by. Real were worthy winners for me, but it is true that anything that could have gone their way in the opening 45 minutes did and Espanyol took Real closer than they had done in a long time. Looking for other positives, head coach Quique Sanchez Flores said: "The group is mentally well, because the team has improved in every game and the sensations are good. "We are looking for the victory and I am confident it will arrive, although the good performance against R. Madrid does not guarantee beating Osasuna because it's a different match, the team progresses"

He added that the spirit was incredibly good, that no one has "allowed their intensity to drop" , but that they knew that a victory was now essential for the whole project to "click". Sanchez Flores and his staff said they had done a lot of work on Osasuna, more than usual, as five defenders and two strikers was not something you faced very often, he has to replace Piatti today , but wants to rotate as little as possible, because the starting eleven need minutes and to bond right now.

These two teams have very similar records after four games, but Espanyol look superior and offensively have far more potential and Osasuna have yet to score in two home starts. Their high offensive line, inability to pick up runners into the box and poor marking from set pieces was rudely exposed by Sociedad here and Real in Madrid and this looks a very good opportunity for Espanyol to kick start their season. Hosts are without veteran right back Javier Flores again today, they have conceded one goal in 97 minutes with him on the pitch, 7 in 263 without him. Options for this position are limited, 18 yo Aitor Bunuel is very inexperienced, they felt they could not risk him against Real Madrid and played a centre back Tano Bonnin who has hardly featured, on the right and he was run ragged and later sent off for a second yellow, clearly an area for Espanyol to target with Jurado and/or Álvaro Vázquez.

Espanyol won that 2-1, but, incredibly (given their offensive options) failed to score in their next three outings, although 0-0 draws with Villarreal and away to Las Palmas were certainly not bad results. Last week saw a return to their free and easy ways in a 3-3 draw with Eibar and I would be surprised if we did not see a goal or two for them today. They were actually three down at the break to the Basque team and came away feeling like the point was a win after scoring three unanswered second half goals. They had made a lot of changes for that game, with Demichelis and Jurado making seasonal debuts and perhaps a slow start, but not with three goals conceded (!), was to be expected, but after 90 minutes, there were a lot of positives to take from the game.They have all their players now, the squad looks strong, time for excuses is over and they are expected to start moving up the table.

Betis are leaky and only basement club Granada have conceded more goals and I would be surprised if we did not see a couple for the visitor today and a repeat of last season's 3-1 win in this fixture is not out of the question.

They will be looking to build on that today and to start generating some momentum , with eyes firmly on a top ten finish in La Liga as a minimum. They have had a full week to rest, recover and prepare for this and are defending a wonderful and surprising record against Athletic, with the hosts 9-1-0 in the last ten league meetings here in Barcelona and they actually led by two at the half in the draw in that sequence, so probably angry that they are not a perfect 10/10. We speak often about Spanish teams taking the Europa league seriously and treating it with respect and Bilbao played in the competition on Thursday, They have lost 2-1 on the road after their last two EL games and also by the same margin here last season, also just days after a European fixture. Four of those nine home wins over Athletic have come by that scoreline and five of the visitors' last ten starts, have also been decided by the odd goal in three. Bilbao did rotate as much as possible in midweek, but nine played in both the Europa league game and last weekend's derby game with Osasuna and as a squad, Espanyol will have a significant freshness edge. Teenager Marc Roca drops out of the home squad, replaced by experienced Felipe Caicedo who has been pretty much one of the first names on the team sheet for the last two seasons.

The match in Barcelona ended honours even at 0-0, it was largely dominated by Espanyol, despite which, they played their best football when Athletic did venture forward and the hosts could then break with great intent and pace and it is easy to see why 8 of their 12 points have come on the road. They have tightened up defensively and have not conceded in five halves of football and really ought to win today. They won at both Osasuna and Betis and you can make a case for Alaves being of a similar level, I view the visitors as a top 8-10 team in waiting, they have the firepower to score a couple of goals against anyone on the road and now that those defensive issues are being ironed out, they should continue to climb the table.

Not many notes on Alaves, but ahead of a home game with real Madrid last month I wrote ...........

Alaves are no longer the La Liga surprise packet and were cruelly exposed by Sociedad last weekend, something I discussed yesterday (see next preview) and Real will have taken careful note of that and will be looking to put similar pressure on the host from out wide. Real need three points to ensure they stay top of La Liga and have scored 20 goals in their last four "competitive" starts, including 13 in two on the road, although competitive is the last thing either was. Ronaldo, Benzema, James and Bale have all made the trip and Real are showing this game due respect and I would expect them to want a 2-3 goal advantage, before taking starters out of the game. The home side are a little shorthanded today and given how much they struggled with crosses last week, the loss of central defender Victor Laguardia could be decisive, two goals against Sociedad came after he left the pitch and they are going to be vulnerable to almost every ball into the box. Real have led at the break in their last five road wins and by a combined 11-0, two or more ahead at half time in four. I assume we will see Zouhair Feddal in the middle of the backline again , he didn't play well in two starts for Levante against Real last season, in both of which his team were two down at the half. I did consider waiting for a better quote in running, as Alaves will surely pack the midfield, but this is nothing Real haven't seen before.

Alaves lost that 4-1, but steadied their sinking ship with a 1-0 win at struggling Osasuna just before the international break. They will again be without Victor Laguardia (see above) which is a loss that the visitors can exploit, Espanyol are very close to full strength now and this is a game, they should expect to be winning.

1.25 units Espanyol level ball 2.11 asian line/Sportmarket.

Espanyol: Roberto, R. Duarte, Víctor S., Ó. Duarte, Gerard, Reyes, F. Caicedo, Diego López, Jurado, David López, Javi López, Hernán Pérez, Javi Fuego, P. Piatti, P. Diop, D. Reyes, Marc Roca, Aarón , Melendo.

Athletic are 8th in the table, could move into the top six with all three points and are traditionally strong here at Sam Memes where their hugely passionate supporters urge them forward at every opportunity. However, that can cause problems at times, when they can be too gung-ho for their own good and they do leave themselves exposed. Last three home game have seen them concede six to Osasuna, Sociedad and Genk, although they did win two, scoring nine themselves. They are fun to watch and on a going day, very difficult to beat on home soil.Hosts are without central defender Xabier Etxeita and right back Oscar de Marcos which weakens them at the back.

Villarreal would move into third with the win and perhaps more importantly, would open up a five point gap over Atletico and really cement their Champions League position. They have lost just once all season and have drawn at Real Madrid and avoided defeat on 7 of 10 visits to Bilbao, so given the number of goals that Athletic have been conceding here and their missing defenders and the visitors own strong defensive record, just 7 goals conceded this season, they look good value with the handicap start.

1.25 units Villarreal +0.25 ball 2.29 asian line/Sportmarket.

Athletic: Bóveda, Laporte, Eraso, San José, Beñat, Muniain, Williams, Vesga, Iago Herrerín, Susaeta, I.Lekue, Mikel Rico, Sabin Merino, Aduriz, Raúl García, Balenziaga, Arrizabalaga, Yeray.

Villarreal:Asenjo , Andrés Fernández, Mario, José Ángel, Jaume Costa, Víctor Ruiz, Bonera , Álvaro, Bruno, Trigueros, Cheryshev, Samu Castillejo, Roberto Soriano, Jonathan dos Santos , Rodrigo, Sansone, Pato , Bakambu.

Sporting Gijon- Real Sociedad

I previewed Real's last road game, siding with them for their trip to Leganes...........

They (Leganes) won that, but have yet to win on home soil and have conceded ten in their last three home starts, losses to Barcelona, Valencia and Sevilla, which is a tough sequence, but doesn't get significantly easier today. They also shipped four at Malaga last Sunday and defensively they are clearly struggling. Real have only won once on the road, this camapign, but last season no one outside the top six won as many away starts and they will welcome the slightly less competitive nature of this with their last three away outings being a trip to Villarreal and two Basque derbies . They have home games with Atletico and Barcelona up shortly and really need to take some points from this and a trip to Sporting Gijon, otherwise a solid start to this season, could quickly turn into a poor one. They have a big threat aerially and from set pieces, both goals in a 3-2 loss to Athletic in their last away game from from those and all three in a 3-0 win over Alaves last week from crosses and Leganes have shown a weakness in defending both.

They won that 2-0 and followed up by the same scoreline at home to Atletico and whilst the Big 3 side are struggling domestically right now, that is still noteworthy. Both goals came from spot kicks in that game, Sociedad again showed that aerial threat, but in truth, rode their luck to not be one or two down before they took the lead and I certainly do not feel they are as tight defensively as those last two results suggest. I also doubt they will arrive overly confident with a 5-1 defeat here back in January still relatively fresh in minds, but I guess a little revenge might be on the menu. Last three h2h meetings here have produced there or more goals.

Sporting are bottom three, but experienced relegation battlers now , survived by a point last season and know that their fate will be decided by home form, they already have seven points in Gijon and considering that they have entertained Barcelona, Valencia and Sevilla, that is pretty good. They will fancy their chances today, having won 5-1 last season and also beating Real in a friendly game here early last month. They have conceded in 9 straight home games, friendlies and La Liga, but do have the potential to cut loose when things click. BTS at least one goal.

1.25 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.29 asian line/Sportmarket.

Real: Rulli, T. Ramírez, C. Martínez, Aritz, Mikel, I. Martínez, Raúl Navas, Yuri B., Illarra, Zurutuza, Granero, Canales, X. Prieto, Carlos V., Oyarzabal, D. Concha, Willian J, Juanmi.

Good Luck.

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La Liga Football Betting Tips: Alaves-Espanyol/ Athletic-Villarreal/ Sporting-Sociedad

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