Ligue 2: Olympique Nimes- Clermont Foot
Last Friday I previewed Nimes trip to Valenciennes................
Nimes seem cursed at home this season, last week, ahead of a draw with Sochaux I wrote .........
Nimes have served us very well on the road this season and after a poor start, to what looked a hugely promising campaign, have hauled themselves up to 10th place and are "only" five points adrift of third and traditionally come on strong through the middle third of the season in any case.However, they need to address their home form and quickly, having not won here (0-3-2) collecting 11 of 14 points on the road. They are far better here in Nimes than that suggests and they were 7-2-1 at home after Christmas last season and maybe we just have a case of variance kicking in and evening out across the 15 games (7-5-3). Certainly time for a win and Sochaux who are amongst the promotion favourites, would be a good team to start against and would certain provide confidence for upcoming home starts. Bonus for the hosts is that Sochaux played on Monday, so are dealing with that always difficult quick turnaround, which tends to prove so problematic in Ligue 2. Nimes offensive threat is sky high with Kouakou and Alioui (see below), despite not seeing it yet at home, Sochaux are very different and have not scored more than a single goal in six starts, give me the team with goals in them every time !
In early season I spoke about their potential .............
I wrote a lengthy preview of Nimes' trip to then leaders Nancy, who went on to win Ligue 2 by four points, back in late January, in that I spoke about Nimes great goalscoring form and how they had made a habit of running into form through the second half of recent campaigns, you can read those notes on this link to the clubgowi website . They collected 34 points from 18 starts from the end of November, which is more or less top 3 shape for half a season , add in their 8 point deduction and they would have finished 9th and given all that the players had to deal with in early season ( confidence was shot from how the previous campaign ended and they took until October 23rd to get to +1 point !), that was a fantastic achievement. They got great support through this improved run, fans bought into the great escape/ them against us attitude and five figure crowds (big numbers for them and L2) were turning up and really getting behind the team. What could have been a disaster, actually turned into a campaign full of promise and hope for the future.
Head coach Bernard Blaquart has been busy over the summer and looks to have upgraded the backline and the addition of two experienced full backs in Gael Angoula and Zie Diabate looks good business. Up front, the signing of Rachid Alioui is promising, he was top scorer for Laval last season, which. additionally weakens the visitors, the striker hit the ground running this time last year, with five goals and two assists in the first 11 games and he was playing for a team who do not score many (just 12 in total through that sequence).
They have played their best football on the road, posting a 3-2-1 record and scoring a Ligue 2 high 12 goals and for some reason, just seem happier away from Nimes, where they play with far greater freedom.
Valenciennes were shocking in a 4-1 loss to Tours last week and despite winning two, they have conceded nine goals in their last four starts, games which averaged 4.5 goals pg. Nimes are not coming to defend and I take them to win an open encounter, the last two h2h meetings here have both produced four goals.
We went with Nimes at good odds and the the "over" 3.5 at even bigger and both were landed with a 3-2 come from behind win for the visiting side. That took Nimes onto 18 points, only four of which have been picked up on home soil, if they had been as good here as they were on the road, they would be three clear at the top of the table. They were very solid as a host in the second half of last season, but really now need a result in front of their own supporters. Runs like this can get inside your head and you end up "expecting" to slip up or miss chances. However, we know they are decent and pose a goal threat and they face the top 2 in their next two home starts and it is going to be easier for the breakthrough to start today against Clermont, who, as we often discuss, play just about the most open football in Ligue 2. The visitors are also better than 15th place indicates and they will go on a good run sooner rather than later. Nimes won this 6-2 last season, not really expecting the same, but after runs like they have had, when the win finally comes, it is usually emphatic. I am going to go with the double bet again and hope that it plays out 3-1 or something similar to land both.
I spoke about a recent Clermont performance, a loss by that scoreline on home soil to Le Havre ..............Le Havre won 3-1 and I liked Tanchot's contribution from the sidelines where he was very vocal and animated, the antithesis of Bradley. The game was wide open, Clermont played well going forward and could/should have been 2-1/3-1 up at the half , instead of 1-0 down. That paid for that, it was mostly Le Havre after the break,with the Clermont goal a late consolation. Three things to pick up on, the Clermont offensive threat remains, but defensively they are a shambles, two of the goals conceded were horror shows and they were incredibly slow to the "second ball" in their own area.
Clermont are without goalkeeper Mehdi Jeannin and replacement Marc-Aurele Caillard has conceded at the rate of 1.69 per L2 game in the last two seasons (13 apps), also sidelined is veteran defensive midfielder Eugene Ekobo, he has missed 11 games in the last two seasons, through which Clermont have kept just one clean sheet and lost 7 times.
1.5 units Olympique Nimes -0.5 1.99 ball asian line/Sportmarket.
1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.
Nimes : Gallon, Marillat - Angoula, Briançon, Marin, Diabaté, Valls - Fabre, Savanier, Ou. Cissokho, Ait Fana, Azouni - Ripart, Alioui, Kouakou, Sissoko.
Clermont : Caillard, L'Hostis - Agounon, Avinel, Djellabi, Fontaine, Laporte, Rivieyran - Centonze, Espinosa, Guerbert, Jobello, Pereira Lage - Dugimont, Guilavogui, Thiam.
Good Luck.
