France: Coupe de la Ligue
 

Yesterday I wrote .............

 

So, we should expect 6.5 of these ten to go "over" 2.5 and four to produce 4 or more goals, that's on average of course, there might be none of the latter this year, eight next season, but in general terms, it is a good starting point.
 

The two games yesterday saw one "over" (the wrong one !), with both teams scoring in that, the other was a 2-0 away win.

 

Clermont- Olympique Marseille
 

Hard to know how committed Marseille will be to this competition, but they played a very open game with Bourg-Peronnas at this stage last season and will certainly welcome both the lesser opposition and intimidating enviroment tonight, after playing bitter rival PSG over the weekend and I suspect they will be able to relax and enjoy this. We can almost guarantee how Clermont will play, having discussed them as the single most offensive minded Ligue 2 on numerous occasions. Last Friday, ahead of a 2-1 loss at Niort, I spoke about their previous home game against Le Havre ............

Le Havre won 3-1 and I liked Tanchot's contribution from the sidelines where he was very vocal and animated, the antithesis of Bradley. The game was wide open, Clermont played well going forward and could/should have been 2-1/3-1 up at the half , instead of 1-0 down. That paid for that, it was mostly Le Havre after the break,with the Clermont goal a late consolation. Three things to pick up on, the Clermont offensive threat remains, but defensively they are a shambles, two of the goals conceded were horror shows and they were incredibly slow to the "second ball" in their own area and lastly, the performance of HAC keeper Fabien Farnolle who was a commanding and decisive presence and simply refused to be beaten until the game was won.

 

Today they are hard hit by injury and suspension and are without a handful of players, including Dugimont (top scorer) and goalkeeper Jeannin (conceded six in three without him, 16 in 9 last season) and short handed in the holding role, for protection for that porous back line. The "over" still appeals, but I prefer ......
 

1.5 units Olympique Marseille -1 ball 2.44 asian line/Sportmarket.
 

Clermont : Caillard, L'Hostis - Agounon, Avinel, Djellabi, Fontaine, Laporte, Rivieyran - Busin, Centonze, Espinosa, Guerbert, Jobello, Magnesse, Pereira-Lage - Ajorque, Guilavogui, Thiam.

 

Marseille : Pelé, Samba - Bedimo, Doria, Fanni, Hubocan, Rekik, Rolando, Sakai - Diarra, Khaoui, Lopez, Machach, Zambo Aguissa - Alessandrini, Gomis, Leya Iseka, Sarr, Thauvin.

Bastia- Guingamp

 

Bastia made the final of this competition in 2014-15 and four of their five games produced at least four goals and that highlights what we expect , which is largely teams who have a defence first attitude in league games, to throw off the shackles for 90 minutes . The hosts will have survival as a priority, but should give this their (almost ) full attention, they beat Guingamp here 1-0 just five weeks ago, but conditions were poor, Bastia desperate for a win and Guingamp had their big derby game up next. I think the match will have a very different feel tonight, Guingamp are coming with confidence after a 3-1 away win at Lyon  last time out, but have opted to rotate heavily and are resting 6-7 starters, six who actually started in the league meeting last month. They have named a much weaker ( I guess) but very offensive looking group and I feel they will go for it and not care overly should they lose . Like I said, a very different match to the league game and I do not think odds reflect that.