Clermont have had a very tough sequence of games and their last four starts have come against teams with an average league position of 4th. Ahead of the first of those a trip to highflying Brest I wrote ............
Clermont are just about the most offensive minded team in L2 and ahead of a recent trip to Valenciennes I wrote ...........We had very few goals on opening day last season and also no home wins, that was a little odd of course, but the previous two campaigns had produced an average of 2.7 goals, so I will see the start of 15-16 as simply a blip. Clermont were fun to watch last season, they produced a Ligue 2 high 109 goals and away starts averaged 2.95 per game. They finished 7th, seven points shy of a promotion spot, were in the mix most of the campaign and I doubt we will see too much difference in their approach, the six main "defensive" starters remain, are all in the squad and seem likely to start this evening, which kind of bears that out. They have lost two big offensive threats in top scorer Famara Diedhiou and Adrien Hunou, but winger Remy Dugimont had seven goals and three assists after the end of November and Corinne Diacre (pictured) , who is in her third season in charge, believes in attacking football and has added a number of young strikers to the squad and to be honest, they have looked very similar to the Clermont of old in pre season, conceding and scoring freely.
Prior to their game immediately before the break I updated with ......They have gone "over" in two cup games since and in a home game with Sochaux, we opted for goals in all three and I have to stick with that policy today, despite Ajaccio not fitting the usual profile of an "over" team, this is really all about Clermont's approach and how they go into every game.
They won that 2-1 , have posted back to back wins, including a clean sheet at Auxerre, who had scored six in their previous two starts and have also progressed in the cup. They were a bit sloppy in the first half against Ajaccio, but Diacre made some good adjustments at the break and they then played to their strengths and with far more width. They look to be running into form and we should again expect a top 8 push from them.
Brest are unbeaten and top of the table, but have conceded twice in each of their last three starts (league and cup), after given up just one in their opening three and needed three goals after the 90th minute to take points from the two league games. They cannot continue to bail themselves out late in the game, head coach Jean-Marc Furlan took charge in the summer, he is very offensive minded, Brest have in the last three campaigns been completely the opposite, so a big learning curve, results started (very) well, but there will be blips along the way with the "transition" and it feels like we are in, or entering one, now.
Today they will be without central defender Zakaria Diallo and influential right back Gaetan Belaud who has assists in each of the last two starts, including the late, late, late equaliser at Sochaux. He missed 10 starts last year , Brest lost six of those (60%), just 9 of the other 28 (32%), in 14/15 they averaged 1.72 points per game when he played ( 25 matches), just 1.076 when he was sidelined (13 games).
They won that 2-0, but have had to settle with just two points from their subsequent three starts, draws with Lens and Starsbourg were fine, the loss came on the road to Reims, who were 10 minutes away from taking first place in Ligue 2 on Monday, Clermont felt very hard done by with that defeat , they argued that the late Reims winner should not have been allowed and were denied at the very death by the woodwork. Their performance level has remained high and after such a tough run of games, they will welcome facing "lesser" opposition today.
Laval "earned" a road point last week in a 0-0 draw with BEBP ahead of which I spoke about their hugely negative approach .......... Laval have failed to score in seven away starts and have little by way of Plan B when the point they are invariably looking for is lost when they fall behind and they will do well to hold of the hosts for long and do not deserve to, with such a negative mindset. They have a 25.4% win rate in the last four seasons, a 48.81 draw return in the last three, which tells you much about how they approach games and it feels like they are finally getting their just reward.
That point leaves Laval in the bottom three and they have won just four times in 2016, I just do not get this continued negative mindset, their next two visitors are Brest and Le Havre and it is not going to get any easier, so I do expect them to try and open up today. Clermont will certainly be prepared to play their part and arrive without goalkeeper Mehdi Jeannin, which should give Laval the further incentive they need to push for the win. Jeannin is ever present this season and has not missed many games in the last few season, but is always rested in the cups, 12 of the last 15 games he has sat out in the last three campiagns have gone "over". The last three h2h meetings between these two have seen both score in each and 11 goals in total and I feel we will see goals today.
1.5 units "over" 2.25 goals 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.
Laval : Hautbois, Cappone - Mukiele, Appindangoye, Afougou, Perrot - Coutadeur, Dembélé, Alla, Monfray, Malonga - Saint-Louis, Zéoula, Bayard, Nsikulu, Koné.
Clermont : Caillard, L'Hostis - Agounon, Avinel, Djellabi, Fontaine, Laporte, Rivieyran - Centonze, Ekobo, Guerbert, Jobello, Lopy, Pereira-Lage - Ajorque, Dugimont, Thiam.
Good Luck.
