Championship betting preview: Preston North End - Burnley
Apr 22, 2016
Championship: Preston North End - Burnley
My preview of a recent Burnley road game, a trip to Huddersfield Town are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off, there were some incredibly useful stats and comments in those notes and I suggest you start with a quick re-read, especially of the last paragraph. That match played out perfectly with Burnley winning 3-1 with two of those goals coming very early (14th and 30th minute) and that was a case of one single preview throwing up 4-5 winning opportunities. That match signalled a kind of high point on the Clarets season, they were seven points clear at the top of the table after that and did look nailed on for an automatic promotion spot with many of their rivals struggling at the time. They have not done an awful lot wrong since, in that they are unbeaten in six, but four of those were draws and with Brighton and Middlesbrough stepping up the pace, that leaves Burnley coming into this fixture in second place, but only ahead of the Seagulls on goal difference, the top three are only separated by two points and are eight clear of Hull , who have a game in hand, it looks almost certain that two of the current top three will be going up automatically, the other will have to deal with the disappointment, whilst gambling in the post season lottery. We are pretty much in a staring contest and who blinks first will lose !
Burnley have the chance to win tonight and put HUGE pressure on the other two, another way of looking at things is that the other two have far easier ( on paper) fixtures and failure of the Clarets to take all three points is likely to leave them playing catch up with two rounds left to play ! Whichever way you choose, the visitors have to find a way to win this.
Preston have had a very decent first season back in the Championship, but I have spoken several times about my feeling being that they have overachieved and I rate them below many of the other teams around them in the league table. They have only pride to play for now and their two wins in ten starts have come against struggling teams in Blackburn Rovers and Bolton Wanders, when local bragging rights were at stake. Both Preston and Burnley, like the rest of the Championship played on Tuesday and the quick turnaround is a big advantage in my opinion to the much deeper and stronger visiting squad. PNE are 1-4-6 next time out after a midweek game, Burnley are 8-3-0 (including winning their last six) in their second game of the week, this will be the first Friday start of the season for the hosts and that will mean a major change in schedule/build up and that will go double on the back of a Tuesday game. Burnley have already played two Friday fixtures, won both and put in one of their best opening 45 minutes displays in the second a 3-1 win at Griffin Park over the mighty Bees ( who were poor that day) and that came following a midweek fixture. So they have done this before and are bigger, stronger and tougher than the hosts, they are unbeaten in 20 league starts and if they can continue that to the end of the campaign, will set a new club record and will probably be playing Premier League football next season, but they have to get out of the "drawing" habit.
1.5 units Burnley -0.75 ball 2.31 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
Championship: Huddersfield Town- Burnley (written March 12th)
I feel that oddsmakers have given Huddersfield Town a little too much credit for their 3-1 midweek win over a very distracted Reading team , ahead of that game I wrote .............
Town have finished 16th-19th in their three seasons since returning to the Championship and look booked for a similar placing this time round, being 18th and having played a game more than the three teams immediately above them. It is a little surprising that they have not kicked on and at least mounted a bit of a challenge in one of these campaigns, but you have got to be in it, to win it and priority now has to be preserving their second tier status. They have a seven point advantage over the drop zone, but will need to find another three wins or so, their next five starts after tonight are incredibly tough, playing the top three, in addition to two Yorkshire derby fixtures, one against a team in the top six.
I am pretty sure that they will be eyeing up the three points tonight and that the visitors will have their focus on their home FA Cup quarter final with Crystal Palace on FRIDAY night, that is very win-able with the Eagles in freefall , but the EPL team played on Sunday and will have had 48 hours + longer recovery time and that means that the Royals will be rotating heavily this evening and putting out pretty much a B team, with the prize of a Wembley appearance so close they can almost touch it. Reading have collected four points from their last two league games , but did concede five and there should be goals in this for the Terriers and they have scored nine in the last four h2h meetings. First goal should see this get very stretched at both ends and anyone coming in for the Royals will be looking for a chance to impress. The two teams shared 11 goals in two FA Cup ties in Janauary and Town were two up early in the replay at the Madejski before the tie turned on a dismissal and they will want a little revenge for that
.They are going to be asked a lot more questions today by what is a strong visiting team who have broken type this season to invest heavily in players with the aim of returning to the Premier League at the first attempt. They used the funds from their previous spell in the top flight to upgrade facilities at the club and secure their long term future, this time round it has been in the squad and their previous transfer record and frugal spending policy has been blown out of the water. That has paid off so far, Andre Gray (pictured) now looks cheap at £9m and is the top scorer in the Championship and the Clarets sit atop of the second tier, main rivals Middlesbrough and Hull City look to have very win-able games this weekend and to maintain their advantage, Burnley are going to have to come looking for all three points and a sixth straight win. The Clarets are an incredible 14-0-0 against bottom eight teams this season, they have scored 2+ in 13 of those and the average winning margin is exactly 2.0 goals. Away win.
1.75 units Burnley -0.25 ball 2.33 asian line/Sportmarket.
Town start slowly here at the Galpharm, where they have a -6 goal difference in the opening 30 minutes , which rises to +7 thereafter, Burnley are +5 on the road in the first 15 minutes.
5.50 -6.0 for Burnley to win by two or more goals looks generous.
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