My strongest news for today is for the NFL, but I have also taken a look at three of the South American World Cup qualifiers and you can read one of those below......
2018 FIFA World Cup Qualification CONMEBOL: Chile- Columbia
I previewed Columbia's opening game, a visit from Peru in which I spoke about how few goals they had been scoring, those notes are reproduced at the foot of this email. Columbia actually won that 2-0, scoring the second and costly goal ( we took Peru +1 ) in injury time, the home side played ok in patches, but really rode their luck after the break and Peru should have come away with a point. I feel that the Columbians gave everything for that win and there was not a lot left and they lost 3-0 in Montevideo a few days later. They get James Rodriguez back today which should help a little, but already missing several key players, including suspended Juan Cuadrado (pictured), they have a host of others facing suspension with a second yellow card and mindful of that and how the first two group games played out, they cannot go gung-ho tonight come up short, again lose discipline and have nothing, or little, left for the visit of Argentina and right now, that will be viewed as the far more win-able game of the two.
Chile are not just Copa America champions but the best team in South America right now and they will want to ride the momentum built up over the last couple of years as far as it will take them and having already seen off Brazil here in Santiago and scored four on the road in Peru, they will want to put another of the area's giants in their place tonight. I think this Columbian squad is a little suspect and they really need to score first, if they concede early(ish) like in Uruguay, things could again unravel quickly and ill discipline creep in. The visitors have gone away from their speedy play of 18 months ago and opted for a more possession style game, not sure that suits them at all and they are playing a team far more adept at that style of football this evening.
1.25 units Chile -1 ball 2.47 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
Columbia- Peru (written October 8th)
Columbia were eliminated from the Copa America at the quarter final stage scoring just a single goal in four starts, including a 0-0 draw with tonight's oponents and only made it that far as one of the "best" third placed teams. Goals have been an issue all year, a couple of early games against lowly opposition aside and they have managed just three in seven starts and whilst they have been solid defensively, they have created very little and the midfield looks unbalanced and are providing too few chances for their misfiring strikers. They have only played one match since the Copa, a 1-1 draw with, yes you guessed it , Peru last month in the US.
Peru impressed at the Copa and lost unluckily to host and eventual competition winner Chile in the semi final, where they felt they were robbed after a controversial red card saw them reduced early in the game to ten men, despite which they stayed competitive for 90 minutes and only lost narrowly, ahead of that game my notes included .....
With Brazil, who have always been a bogey team for Chile out of the competition and Argentina facing a rematch with a Paraguayan side they struggled with at the group stage tomorrow, things are starting to look hugely promising for the hosts, but with that comes added pressure, the level of expectation is through the roof and now, failure to reach the final will be seen as a bit of a disaster and if Peru can hang on in there early, they can use that to their advantage. Peru have looked very well organised at these championships and were comfortable quarter final winners over Bolivia, ahead of which I wrote ......Peru have looked very solid keeping Colombia and Venuezuela scoreless and Brazil at 1-1 (after two early goals) for 87 minutes. They do not have any real weaknesses, look good in defence and midfield and have three veteran forwards in Paolo Guerrero, Jefferson Farfan and Claudio Pizarro who are all the wrong side of thirty and playing in what might be their last major championship, the trio have all played at the top level in Europe and have 60 international goals between them and can find a goal and one might be enough, to edge this. Peru feel they are improving and have more to offer and I would have been very keen on them for this if they were not without captain Carlos Labatón and defensive midfielder Josepmir Ballón, who are both suspended. That kind of tempers enthusiasm, but they are in their 7th straight Copa quarter final and will be looking to at least equal their 2011 3rd place finish. They were not adventurous enough in the semi final against Uruguay that year and I feel they will have learned from that.
They were 2-0 up inside the first quarter of the game, had a whopping 27 attempts on goal (hitting the woodwork twice) and Paolo Guerrero scored a hat trick, before Bolivia made the scoreline respectable with a late consolation goal, it was an impressive victory and this is a team on the up and improving game upon game. Chilean centre back Gonzalo Jara is suspended after putting his finger where it should not be put (!) and the hosts conceded two goals at home to the US in the only start he has missed in 2015. Mexico are the only team who have really taken the game to Chile in this competition and they scored three without the cream of their offensive talent and if Peru are prepared to have a go, I can definitely see a goal or maybe two for them and I am very keen on the "away" team with the handicap start. Peru use both flanks well and could create havoc in the box, with a big aerial advantage over Chile .
They then went on to take 3rd with an easy win over Paraguay and it was a hugely succesful Copa for Peru with Christian Cueva and Paolo Guerrero (see above) who was also joint top scorer, both making the team of the tournament. Given how well they have played this year, including two draws versus Colombia already and with the home side struggling for goals and missing star player James Rodriguez and that the hosts, even if they take the lead will play mindful of their trip to Uruguay in a couple of days time, I cannot agree with such a big handicap start.Win big or not, this is not the Colombia of two years ago and Peru are improving.
