Saturday August 22nd #2

 

Next newsletter will be sent @ 13.00 UK time today.

 

Premier League:
 

Crystal Palace- Aston Villa
 

Norwich City- Stoke City

 

I want to discuss these two games together, as I previewed the Norwich City- Crystal Palace match up on opening day.....

 

Palace won that 3-1 and were perhaps unfortunate not to take something from a 2-1 home defeat to Arsenal last week, I say "perhaps" as they were denied by the woodwork with the scores tied and the Gunners should have been down to ten men by that stage, but in truth, the North London side deserved the three points. However, it is not how Palace perform against the big four which will ultimately decide their finishing position, anything gained from them will be a bonus, but it is today, in these bread and butter fixtures that their fate will be decided.
 

Villa started with a 1-0 road win at Bournemouth where they had to dodge a few bullets early and then lost 1-0 at Old Trafford last Friday, the scoreline doesn't really tell the full story, their lack of attacking threat was clear, they are obviously going to miss Christian Benteke and it will be a steep learning curve for Jordan Ayew and Rudy Gestede and the latter is not going to pose the same aerial threat against Palace, who are very strong in that area and whilst we are only two games into the new campaign, the fact that Villa have had fewer attempts on goal that any other team in the top flight is already telling. The Villans have a young team too and stamina can often be an issue with youngsters, they visible tired late against United and Palace who press the life out of you, will not give the visitors a moments peace and are not the team you want to face with any fitness concerns. Palace scored an average of 0.43 goals per game more than Villa last season and that rises to 0.76 if we take the Benteke contribution out of the equation and I see no evidence that they have adequate replacements, at least yet !

 

1.5 units Crystal Palace -0.75 ball 2.23 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

The Canaries followed up that home defeat with a 3-1 road win at Sunderland, if you had read the paragraph that I have highlighted above in heavy type, that would not have surprised and until City come to terms with life in the EPL, we might always see the best of them on the road and they might struggle and will definitely tend to overcommit and leave gaps here at Carrow Road, where they are pulled forward like magnets by the crowd and cannot play to their strengths, we also have to bear in mind that Sunderland are not very good ! Having said that , three road goals in the top flight will have done wonders for City's confidence levels, however, Youssouf Mulumbu and Martin Olsson (see above) are still sidelined, there have been no new arrivals and Stoke City will ask far more question of them this afternoon and for the visitors, record signing Xherdan Shaqiri is set to make his debut , but probably from off the bench. That City can sign a player of his quality, for a big fee and he is not an automatic starter is a sign of how far they have come, they are an established EPL team with back to back top ten finishes and anything less than a repeat this season, will now be seen as failure. They showed terrific heart to come back from two down to claim a point at White Hart Lane last weekend and if they can take their second half display there into this, they can make their better quality tell. I make this little more tha a coin flip and will take .........

 

1.5 units Stoke City level ball 2.35 asian line/Sportmarket.
 

 

Leicester City- Tottenham Hotspur

I spoke the lack of pure striking options for Tottenham Hotspur ahead of their Audi Cup game with Real Madrid earlier this month ......Spurs starting their EPL campiagn on Saturday LUNCHTIME, there is no way they can give of their best in both matches and probably not in either. They have arrived with only one out and out striker in Harry Kane and to say that any injury to him would be a disaster is a major understatement. They did add to their defensive options in the summer, but look threadbare, Kane aside, in the striking department and simply have to bring someone in asap , but at present, every potential move is being thwarted.

All teams have brought big squads with them, but Tottenham are short of experience, especially in key offensive areas and will be looking to blood some youngsters, rotate heavily, with 12.45 Saturday in mind and also, as much as possible, protect Kane.
 

They still have not been able to fully address this problem, although the signing of Clinton Njie will help , whilst Kane is available they will always have goals in them, but they just cannot see the window close without adding another top level striker. They scored twice against Stoke City ( see above) without Kane getting on the scoresheet, but he was pivotal in everything they did offensively and his all round play is improving on almost a game by game basis and his link up play and ability to find space for himself and team mates last weekend was eyecatching. But it is goals that strikers are all about and he will want to kick start his season asap and especially so today, as he spent three months on loan at City at the end of the 2012-13 season when still a teenager. He was up for the league meetings last season and scored four goals in two starts against City, he sat out the cup meeting between the two teams, but all three games went "over", with an average of 4.33 goals and both teams on the scoresheet in each.
 

Despite the change in head coach at the Foxes, they still look to have goals in them at both ends of the pitch, scoring six and conceding three in taking six points from their two opening games, Claudio Ranieri's start could hardly have gone much better and City also managed to break that London "jinx" last week, with that win at West ham United , ahead of which I wrote .....

City were also delighted with their opening day result, a 4-2 defeat of a fairly woeful Sunderland team, who did not show up until after the break , but the Foxes have to overcome a dire record in the capital, losing all six EPL matches here last season and going 0-3-17 in London since their last win, they are 1-0-7 at Upton Park and something weird happens to them once they get inside the M25. New boss Claudio Ranieri is not called the tinkerman for nothing and seems undecided about whether to stick with 4-4-2 or go with 3-5-2 this afternoon, feeling he needs an extra body in midfield and he is on the look out for at least one midfielder before the transfer window closes. He will need some extra help to deal with new United signing Dimitri Payet who has continued where he left off last season at Marseille and he now has 13 assists in his last 13 starts and will be the man to watch this afternoon.
 

Payet got a goal, but could not save his side from defeat and the Hammers simply did not do enough with the huge amount of possession they enjoyed, City cannot continue to give up that much of the ball and their natural instinct is to drop very deep when defending and good teams are going to punish them. I favour goals with both teams scoring and am going to go with the bigger handicap.

 

1.5 units "over" 3 goals 2.38 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

League 1: Gillingham - Wigan Athletic

 

I an not spending too long on this. Gillingham were our pre season pick for League 1 at massive odds and they are unbeaten through four league and cup starts, posting three wins, including beating pre season title favourites Sheffield United 4-0 here at Priestfield on opening day ( preview for that and my pre season notes can be read below) and also winning away to Bradford City in front of a crowd of well over 17,000 on Tuesday. They simply love to play the bigger clubs and can almost always be relied upon to up their game, something we discussed in detail last month.
 

Wigan Athletic who were in the EPL and FA Cup winners in 2013  fulfill the criteria of a big name team, especially in League 1 terms and we have to continue to side with the Gills, all the while odds are in our favour, as they might not be for too long ! The Latics played on Wednesday, recording an easy 3-0 win over Scunthorpe United, their first of the season, but the opposition was not up to much and had an off night anyway, this will be much tougher and Athletic have had 24 hours less recovery time, which at this stage of the campaign, when teams are still looking for full match fitness, could be key. Hosts are not going to sit back and boss Justin Edinburgh said:We want to replicate the performance and atmosphere that we had against Sheffield United, we are full of confidence and looking forward to the game.”

 

Level ball and close to even money is good, but I prefer............1.5 units Gillingham -0.25 ball 2.36 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket Pro ......or even the 2.60-2.75 for the straight home win.
 

League 1: Gillingham- Sheffield United  (written August 8th)

 

Hosts are my big priced League 1 selection (notes reproduced immediately below the "good luck" sign off)  and we get an early look at their credentials today as they entertain the bookmakers favourites. Having said that, we will have 45 matches left to play after today so nothing is going to be decided either way at Priestfield, but it would be nice to start on the front foot. Gills beat United here 2-0 just six months ago courtesy of two late goals and have seriously upgraded since in my opinion, both in terms of personnel and how the club are now run under Justin Edinburgh ( see both below). I don't really have an issue with United as favourites to win League 1, they are a massive club at this level and will draw huge crowds if even moderately successful. However, odds of 5.50 do not reflect their real chance of winning the division in my opinon and they have not exactly thrilled me with their off season activity in the transfer market. They also have a new manager in Nigel Adkins and I can tell you one thing about him, he will have had the players working incredibly hard in pre season, probably harder than they have ever done previously, some will thrive on that, others will not, the ones that do will certainly benefit from it at some stage through the season, but they might well be a little "leggy" to begin with. However, pre season results have been decent so maybe they will hit the ground running, but they are very short of options in the middle of the backline and Adkins is desperate to bring at least one central defender in as soon as possible, it is a big squad now at Bramall Lane , but they are currently missing eight senior players with an average of over 25 apperances each last season, including two key figures in Brayford and Done and five who started the final play off match of last season. United arrive in confident mood, but given their injury list and that the Gills beat them here recently when United had far more to play for and that the home side have done more in terms of bringing in players since, I have to suggest a strong bet on the home side plus the handicap start.
 

League 1 outright:  (written July 31st)

 

I am holding off on most of my long term ideas this season, it might be that I will get involved next month, after we have seen a few games and the transfer window has closed, but for now we have the bet on Brentford in the Championship, I am going to put up a "big" odds selection for League 1 today and will have a suggestion for the EPL next week, but that will be it for now, at least pre season.
 

Last ten automatic promoted teams from L1 have consisted of two who were relegated the previous season , one who was third and another who finished 7th, so, only one team who competed in the playoffs , which I feel is noteworthy, one out of 15 who were competitive the year before managed to finish top 2 in the following campaign and that was a Brentford team who were an exceptional L1 team and thrived in the Championship the next season and this is obviously not an easy division in which to put in a big push over back to back seasons.

That might make things difficult for Chesterfield, Sheffield United and Swindon Town and there are other reasons to look beyond these three anyway, but I will save those for our match reviews later in the season.
 

The other six automatically promoted teams all finished betweem 10th-15th and with the exception of Bournemouth, who were heavily bank rolled, you could make a case for the other five all being "big" clubs at this level. Spots 10-15 were taken by Fleetwood, Barnsley, Gillingham, Doncaster, Walsall and Oldham last season, you could make a case for Barnsley fitting the "bigger" club mould and they could go well. They collected 36 points over the second half of the season, which would have equated to 5th over a full 46 games and boss Lee Johnson got them up and running after joining in February from Oldham Athletic and they have potential.....for example, all 2,000 tickets for the opening day trip to Chesterfield will be sold by the end of today.
 

However, their squad looks a little lacking in depth and this needs to be addressed , but they are looking at a potential windfall due to a sell on clause for John Stones and this could be as much as £4-5m if he moves, as expected, to one of the big 4 and those funds could go a long way in League 1.
 

I can also make a case for Bradford City who have thrilled everyone with their cup exploits in recent seasons and just missed out on the post season last time round, finishing 7th. They are another big club in L1 terms and meet most of the criteria, but their pitch was in a terrible condition last season and despite heavy investment in that during the off season, there are still concerns that it will again cut up , which will not do them any favours. A futher concern about both the Bantams and Tykes, is the number of intense Yorkshire derbies in this division with Sheffield United and Doncaster Rovers all in the third tier, Chesterfield is only a bus ride from Sheffield and these are a lot of matches to play where more than just three points are up for grabs.
 

Anyway, I think City and Barnsley could go well and I might back one of them later in the season, but for now I want to look elsewhere.........

 

The team that has caught my attention is Gillingham and they are a "working man's" price at circa 33-1 / 40-1.
 

The Gills also made a managerial change mid season with Justin Edinburgh arriving from Newport County in early February. The former Tottenham player who spent a decade at White Hart Lane, saved County from relegation and took them to the FA Trohy final in his first season in charge and back into the Football League in his second, when he left they were 6th in League 2, they finished in 9th , averaging 0.7 points per game less, after his departure. Gills picked up an additional 0.43 per game after he arrived ( up to 1.61 pts pg) which would have given them 74 over the full season, enough for a playoff spot in each of the last five seasons.
 

He rather quickly identified what was wrong at Priestfield and that was a defence which conceded far too freely, especially on the road and made sorting that out a priority for the off season.

He signed left back and Ireland U21 international Bradley Garmston from WBA and central defender Max Ehmer from QPR on permanent deals after the pair spent time at the club on loan in the second half of last season. Gills were 5-3-1 with Garmston in the team and  they won 12 of 27 (44%) starts with Ehmer in the back line, just 4 of 19 (21%) otherwise. I understand that both could have joined Championship teams and I really like that they have bought into the Gillingham project. Right back Ryan Jackson has arrived from Edinburgh's former club and is obviously a player he knows well and is said to be very quick, when he played County won 7% more matches and if that doesn't sound too much, that equals 10 points per season.

19 yo Jordan Houghton has signed on loan until Janauary from Chelsea where the defensive midfielder was U21 captain and is well thought of, having signed a three year contract last season. Speaking about this deal Edinburgh said: “Jordan is a very hungry young player who has had an excellent grounding at Chelsea; he won the Youth Cup the season before last, playing an integral part in the process, and has represented his country at three different age groups.“He is a terrific addition to our squad and I look forward to working with him.” Also signed until January is Cardiff City central defender Adedeji Oshilaja who was a big hit at AFC Wimbledon on a lengthy loan last season, he has been very impressed by the young talent at Gillingham and said: " I don’t see why we can’t be going for the play-offs." I am an ambitious person anyway and everyone else is ambitious here as well."

Up front, Luke Norris is a player I know well from time time at Brentford, he fell just short of the grade there, but is strong, tall and quick with an eye for goal and having only just turned 22 this month, is still improving and has time on his side, Cody McDonald is a prolific lower league striker with 61 league goals in 134 appearances for the Gills and he has scored at least 16 goals in each of his three full seasons in Kent.They are good options, but Edinburgh has added to them with the signing of Rory Donnelly from Swansea and Ben Williamson who decided to move here instead of signing a new contract at Port Vale. What I really like about all the additions is that they had options, in some cases more attractive looking ones and it just feels this is a team on the fringe of something big.
 

Edinburgh feels he might have found a hidden gem in Emmanuel Osadebe who came from Tottenham Hotspur’s foundation college programme, he was signed late last season , with the idea that he would play a few development games, which he did, impressing everyone in the process, he has been fast tracked to the first team squad and started a couple of pre season games, anyway, anything from him will be a bonus.
 

Gills caught my attention last season not only by their results at the end of the campaign, but how comfortable they looked against the better teams, beating MK Dons ( 2nd) 4-2, Sheffield United (5th) 2-0 and Swindon Town (4th) away 3-0 , also drawing 0-0 with champions Bristol City on the road. They have clearly strengthened significantly and they look certain to step up on last season's 12th placed finish, supporters are getting very excited and believe this is the best squad the club have had since 2000 when they made it to the now Championship for the first time. There is a little 2.50 around to finish top half if you can find it and obviously I feel that is good value, but we can be a little more adventurous...........

 

1 unit Gillingham to win League 1 @ 34.0 general quote.....there is a little circa 41.0 around.............this is a "cheap" bet and I think you will get a good run for your money !