The J-League matches today start at a good time , at least for  those of us based in Europe and will be heading into the break at around 11.50 UK time, if any of you are around and following the games, should Sagan Tosu are leading, or level, we can look to take them on. Last week I wrote .....They (Sagan) are starting matches quite well and incredibly, are unbeaten before the break all season ( 4-11-0) but losing their way afterwards and they have conceded 24 of 28 goals ( 86%) in the second half, next highest through that period is the 18 conceded by the bottom two clubs, Albirex Niigata and Shimizu S-Pulse and highlights just how poorly they are ending matches.

They again led 1-0 at half time , but lost 2-1 , so have now conceded 26 of 30 goals in the second half. Once sequences like this get inside a team's head(s) they are very difficult to shake off , Sanfreece are in good form, looking to stay in second place and have won on 3 of their last four league visits here, scoring their winner after the break in two. They have scored two second half goals in two of their last three road games and this could play out well for us.
 

Montedio Yamagata- FC Tokyo  (written April 24th)

 

I pulled the plug on FC Tokyo last week  and that instinct was right, the reasons for doing so was a combination of seeing Sanfrecce as an improving team, along with the hosts missing a couple of key players and being a little vulnerable through the defensive spine. They played quite well and put Hiroshima under a lot of pressure, especially late in the game, but it was not to be, as usual, I will let Massimo Ficcadenti talk about the game: "We took an early lead but after we conceded the equaliser the flow of the game changed completely. Even so, the side continued to play with spirit, we got our rhythm back and made adjustments in areas where we had lost our balance slightly." Takahashi had responsibility for both midfield and defence, but we moved him back to add further stability. "Yonemoto suffered a knock on the head in the first half and we had no alternative but to substitute him. "Hiroshima's intention to defend in blocks at the back, win the ball and counter attack was very pronounced in the second half. "We fell straight into their trap and conceded two goals. Hiroshima are a strong team that has made its mark. In games like today's the outcome hinges on certain events that change the course of the match. "However, I want to tell the players to lift their heads up, I always ask that they fight until the bitter end and they showed that again today. "To create a genuine spirit we need to keeping on going, that's the important thing. "Even though we have this great frustration today, we can't allow ourselves to stop now. "
 

Ficcadenti made only limited rotation in midweek for the cup, with the clear intention of getting back on track asap, they won 2-0 and the brace of goals from one of the players coming in, namely Hirotaka Mita, who has made only one league start this season, which gives the coach not only options, but (good) decisions to make this weekend.
 

Montedio have scored only two goals and won once this season and look set for a long battle against relegation and I highlighted the likelihood of that ahead of Matchday 1 ......
 

To be honest, you can make a case for Yamagata potentially being worse than Vortis, although they will surely have a better season and they also lost 8 home starts in J2, they have not really strengthened and will have to hit the ground running to avoid a season long battle to avoid relegation. They start with a trip to Vegalta Sendai who are no world beaters , but they might not need to be, what they are is battle hardened in terms of relegation fights after finishing bottom six in each of the last two seasons but surviving each time and are all too aware that these are the type of games which ultimately decide your fate. They picked up 1.25 points per game once Susumu Watanabe took charge, he has been at the club many years and knows it inside out, key was that they were unbeaten in their seven starts against the other bottom six teams under Watanabe and although he has lost a couple of key players in the off season, he has brought in his own men and guys he knows will battle . I am not certain that the hosts will be any good, but my instinct is that in three weeks time I might be kicking myself that I did not take something at odds against about a Yamagata road loss .
 

This is a match FCT should win and the type of tactical battle that Ficcadenti loves, apart from Hiroshima last week, only a fitter and very strong Gamba Osaka side have scored against Tokyo and they should be able to edge this , 0-1. 0-2.

 

Japan - Australia

 

Ahead of their L16 meeting between Brazil and Australia I wrote ............. Brazil have yet to concede a goal, but have not met a team with the physical presence or speed of the Australians yet and this is a potential "upset". The Matildas deservedly won 1-0 and celebrated the first ever knockout win for any Australian side at the final whistle wildly, now they have to do it all over again , but this time versus a team who are all too aware of what attributes the Aussies bring to the table. The two nations have a fierce footballing rivalry and the women's teams have met many times in recent years at the Asian Cup, with Japan just about edging the latest encounters and winning the meeting in last year's final 1-0 . Ahead of their tournament opener here I wrote ...........

Japan are defending champions, they were surprise winners in 2011 and are under far more pressure this time round, but I doubt there will be a better prepared team in the competition and 16 of the squad from Germany remain and few teams here in Canada will be as well drilled or know exactly what is expected of them, six of the midfielders have an AVERAGE of almost 120 caps and over 30 goals each.  Several of the squad have experience of playing in North American leagues, others have starred for some of Europe's biggest clubs, but most have returned home over the last 12 months to focus on the World Cup. The artificial playing surfaces here will not worry them and they have recent and positive experience of playing on them, with two games against Canada, one in Edmonton and the second in Vancouver where tonight's game will be played, they won both, scoring three goals in each.  This squad has plied their talents around the world since the win four years ago, few have disappointed and all are very committted to going deep in this tournament in defence of their title. They are techically as good as anyone and will be suited better than most by the pitches. Nahomi Kawasumi and Aya Miyama were both shortlisted for World POTY in 2014 and going forward they are as strong as any team here, defensively they are very well organised, but can struggle against high quality, physical teams, but speed which they have in abundance all over the pitch, allied with an incredible work ethic, often compensates for this. Their win in 2011 was no fluke, you do not beat Germany, Sweden and the USA by accident and they came from behind in two of those games, twice in the final against the US which highlights the fantastic spirit and never say die attitude within this group.
 

I updated their tournament to date ahead of the last 16 meeting with the Netherlands......

Defending champions Japan have gone under the radar a little at this tournament, despite being one of only two teams to take maximum group points, they beat Switzerland, Cameroon and Ecuador all by a single goal and have been efficient rather than impressive, but I suspect they have another gear or two to go through and have played this competition with the full month in mind.

They have scored early in all three group games and then been able to coast a little and defensively they have improved over the last three years and Japan have not conceded a first half goal in eight games and that gives them a very firm base from which to play and offensively, they have far more to give than they have been willing to show so far. The draw has worked out very favourably for them and they would not have to meet the US or Germany until the final and they look to match up well against the Netherlands who came into the competition as dark horses, but were, if anything, a little lucky to progress from the group stage , have already lost to one asian team in China and have not met a side of the quality of the Japanese for 12 months +. The favourites have already played twice in Vancouver and remaining here would have been the target from the moment that head coach Norio Sasaki, who is a very meticulous planner, saw the draw . I have a feeling that we might see the real Japan today, I expect an early lead and for them then to get the space to exploit their opponents once the Dutch are forced forward.
 

That almost went according to plan, they took a lead inside 10 minutes, added a second after the break, before conceding a "freakish" consolation goal late in added time. That have still not really been tested, that will doubtless come today, but whilst they cannot match up physically against the Australians, the Matildas will not have the edge in speed they have against other nations and are not as tactically astute, or technically solid IMO as the extremely well organised and coached Japanese. They will certainly ask more and better questions than Brazil did and the key Japanese players, especally Aya Miyama (see above) come into the game in much better form than their Brazilian counterparts. I still do not think that we have seen what Japan are really capable of yet, they have been building towards this next week or so for two years and whist the gap between the best and the rest in the women's game is closing all the time, Japan are a much stronger team too than they were in 2011 and I favour them to edge this today. 1.5 units Japan -0.5 ball 2.08 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

 

Canada- England

 

Weather will also be testing in Vancouver although not to quite the same level as Edmonton, but the hosts have other advantages too, not least the massive home crowd backing and the extra day's recovery time and not having to travel and perhaps above all, how comfortable they feel in the city, something we spoke about ahead of their final group match.....Canada have created plenty of chances, but only have a single goal to show for it and are still not certain of even a top 2 finish. Christine Sinclair is the focus of so much of what they do offensively and this resulted in a very one dimensional offence. They switch from Edmonton to Montreal today, but are going to get huge support once again, maybe even bigger than for opening day and certainly in the 45,000 -55,000 range. The playing surface there is a little different too, Xtreme as opposed to FieldTurf, so conditions and surroundings will be a little alien to both teams.The hosts would secure first place in the group with a win and they are desperate for that as it would mean playing their Round of 16 and then last eight game in Vancouver, this is the home of the national team in more ways than one and as TSN described: "Vancouver is not just some ordinary training camp base, it is way more valuable than that. "Vancouver is the ancestral and spiritual home of the WNT and contains all those familiar patterns and surroundings - a soccer sanctuary like nothing else in the history of competitive soccer in Canada. "Vancouver dispenses refuge and reward in equal measures."
 

England have shown wonderful team spirit, but have had to work incredibly hard in all four games and they simply cannot have as much left in the tank as Canada and surely that will take it's toll tonight against two closely matched teams.On top of everything else, England have had to fly the 3,500km out West for this game and get used to the three hour time difference, none of which is too onerous until you factor in all the other edges that Canada have into the mix and that the English women have to handle this as a fifth start in 18 days ( spread over 21 days for the host nation).  1.5 units Canada -0.25 ball 2.0 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Copa America: Brazil- Paraguay

 

I feel this match has been priced up on reputation and not really on anything we have seen at these championships. Brazil struggled past Peru where they claimed an injury time winner, lost to a Colombian team who didn't really show up at Copa and edged past a limited Venezuela side who missed a late sitter to earn an equaliser. They have lost their star player in Neymar and have beaten Paraguay just twice in eight starts, including losing the last of those on penalties in the quarter final of the 2011 Copa America.  Paraguay are unbeaten so far, including against Argentina and Uruguay and are expertly coached by Ramon Diaz, who has got his team very disciplined and well organised, tactically he might well be the best coach at these championships and as an Argentine national, if any extra motivation was needed, facing Brazil will provide it ! He has called this the biggest game of his career adding:"To be representing an entire country and what that means, the future of these players. "We are going to give everything we can to try to make it through."We want to advance, and this is a final for us."It will be a hard, intense game, but we are confident we will play a great match."We have had a relaxed week to work on everything: the mental aspect, tactics, dead balls... we are very well prepared."
 

Their strikers have all found some form here with Benitez, Barrios and Valdez scoring and top scorer Roque Santa Cruz impressed the coach from off the bench last time out and is pushing for a start, so good and in form offensive options and given their organisational skills, one goal might be enough this evening, at least to take this into extra time. 1.25 units Paraguay + 0.5 ball 2.38 asian line/Sportmarket.
 

 

 

MLS : San Jose Earthquakes- LA Galaxy

 

LA Galaxy served us well in midweek, with their 5-0 defeat of what had been an inform Portland Timbers and they also rewarded "in play" bettors, again coming on strong late and recording two goals in the final 30 minutes as mentioned in the match preview (see below). I do not have too much to add to those notes with regard to Galaxy, the schedule right now is a bit punishing and this will be their fifth start in 13 days, but tiredness rarely factors when you are winning and after scoring 16 goals in their last three outings and players trying to outdo each other in the goalscoring stakes, they would probably like to play every day at present. They have not done much in terms of travelling and have barely left the LA area for a fortnight and the short hop up the coast to San Jose will be a pleasant trip rather than a taxing one.
 

This match is the California Clásico and always keenly fought and with Earthquakes also coming here in relatively good shape following a 2-0 win at a beat up Seattle Sounders last time out and having only played two matches in build up , whilst Galaxy have had four, they will surely have an edge in freshness and be looking to record a first win over their rival in six h2h meetings. This match up has produced some wild and crazy games in the past, with both teams happy to go toe to toe, the last few meetings have been less gung-ho, but that has had more to do with Earthquakes fall from grace last season and having little to play for aside from the derby fixture and making keeping those games tight and close a priority, there is every reason to believe this will revert to entertaining type this evening. Not least because Galaxy have been storming out of the blocks in recent games ( eight first half goals in four starts) and one for either side tonight will surely see this get very stretched.
 

 

LA Galaxy- Portland Timbers still makes some appeal. (written June 24th)

 

We discussed the hosts ahead of their home game with Philadelphia Union last week.....

Hosts will have gained confidence from their 6-1 demolition of lowly PSA Elite in the US Open Cup in midweek, they have been threatening a breakout victory and whilst the opposition was not up to much , it will have done wonders for the team's confidence, not least Robbie Keane who notched a hat-trick. The put out a relatively strong team, especially offensively, gave Keane 70 minutes after his return from international duty, Sebastian Lletget scored for the second match running and Gyasi Zardes (see below) was also amongst the goals .We discussed both him and Keane ahead of last week's trip to play Columbus Crew .....

Galaxy are struggling, sitting in sixth place in the Western Conference with most of the teams above them in the table having a game or two in hand , without a win on the road and with goals having dried up. Robbie Keane is away on international duty , but has not played much recently in any case, as we discussed this morning. On the plus side , they do get Gyasi Zardes back from international duty and he is bouncing off the walls with excitement after starting against the Netherlands and Germany for the USA and scoring his first international goal against the Dutch and he has 20 goals in the last season and a half for LAG, but maybe a place on the bench is all we can expect from him. They will also be hungry, not just to avenge a 4-1 beating here last season, in a series they previously dominated, but also coming off a home loss to Vancouver after a 29 game unbeaten record at the StubHub Center.They might also be able to call upon Robbie Rogers, who played an hour for the reserves in midweek after a month out injured and Jose Villarreal, who has trained all week should be fit to play, he has been very influential (goal and three assists) in very limited game time this season.

That ended 1-1, but Galaxy showed real signs of a return to form in that game and were having a lot of success with their high pressing game, which is why I think that they wanted to keep the momentum up in midweek. Robbie Rogers looked as sharp as ever on his return and Jose Villarreal (see both above) was a real threat, all in all, very positive signs and so many more options now going foward. Big game for LAG tonight , they need the points to stay in the top 6 (playoff position) and have played more games than most of the other contenders and after tonight have back to back games against direct post season contenders in the Western Conference. 

Union have conceded three goals on their last three trips to the West Coast and have to make the trip after a home defeat in their last home MLS start and then needing extra time to beat a second tier tier on home soil in midweek. They used 11 of the same 14 players in both games and were forced to field three starters they were hoping to rest from off the bench, just three days ago and have now had to make the long trip west with little recovery time. They have conceded eight goals in their last two meetings with Galaxy and another heavy defeat would not surprise.

Galaxy won 5-1 and the next morning I wrote ... Galaxy look as though they might be back on track, five different goalscorers yesterday, although none was Robbie Keane, which is close to "impossible", especially as he had seven attempts on goal, but augurs well for the rest of the season and highlights how their offensive options have suddenly skyrocketed.
 

Timbers were another team I highlight as a potential improver ahead of their home game with DC United last month .....Really tough schedule for DCU, this will be their third straight road game inside 10 days, the last of which was a top of the Eastern Conference clash and very tense encounter with New England Revolution on Sunday evening, where they could not beat an injury hit team who played well over 30 minutes with NINE men. They now have to make the 8,000 km round trip to Portland and that is a big ask and the type of game they could let slide if falling behind, with focus quickly likely to switch to three home games they have scheduled inside eight days starting on Saturday. Hosts will be delighted to be back on home soil after a three game road trip of their own and are very motivated to start their climb up the table. The West is traditionally the much stronger Conference and after losing their first ever start against United, the still new franchise Timbers are unbeaten in four h2h meetings and they should be up to winning this. They got off to a similarly slow start last season, before narrowly missing out on the post season (by a single point) and ran into form in late May, especially in front of goal, scoring 14 goals in six starts ( two or more in each) and they could well do likewise this time round, they recently got Diego Valleri back from injury and whilst he is being nursed to full fitness, they look to have ever increasing offensive options and  I have seen signs that this is a team about to find form and we need to keep an eye on them for the next month or so.
 

They won that 1-0 and have won four in a row in MLS action since and also posted an extra time win, scoring three goals away to Seattle Sounders, so comments on them were on the money and in truth, they had been posting some big offensive "numbers" and even before the upturn in fortune, they were ranked second in the league in shot accuracy, third in attempts on goal, fourth "on target" and fifth in scoring chances created.
 

This is traditionally an open encounter, the last three h2h meetings, all of which have come in the last 11 months, including two here in LA have produced four goals and with both teams as strong offensively right now as they have been all season, that trend can continue.
 

1.5 units LA Galaxy- Portland Timbers "over" 2.75 goals 1.98 asian line/Sportmarket Pro.