I have previewed three matches/events today, one of which you can read below, but I feel there were some very valuable additional observations in the newsletter , especially about the conditions for the Women's World Cup in Canada which we will be able to use to our advantage throughout the tournament and content is always the true value of a clubgowi subscription.

 

 

CONMEBOL Copa America:

 

Copa America gets underway this evening, we will have no altitude issues in Chile, are unlikely to see the extremes in weather that were a feature in Brazil last summer and with several of the bigger nations arriving near the top of their game , we could be in for a mini classic, despite most players coming off a very long European campaign and having played World Cup football last summer. That might mean a bit of a slow start, which is not uncommon in international tournament football, especially one where we are playing down from just 12 to eight through the group stage and where the draw could strongly favour finishing runner up as opposed to winning a section and their might be some cat and mouse games with teams jostling for position. Therefore , we can hold off from looking at the outright winner of the competition until we have seen a couple of games and things look a little clearer.

 

Chile - Ecuador

 

Today sees the host nation playing the opening game, as is usual, the home nation have been heavily favoured by the draw, they can have few complaints about being matched with Ecuador and Bolivia and Mexico arrive seemingly giving priority to the CONCACAF Gold Cup which starts in just four weeks time in North America. All of their home games will be in the national stadium in Santiago and if they win their section, they will remain there all tournament long, until defeated. We see very few tournaments where the host nation lose their opening fixture, that does nobody any good and the last six runnings of the Copa have see the hosting team draw four and win the other two narrowly and I suspect that is what we will see this evening, either the points shared, or a narrow home win.
 

The teams last met here in a World Cup qualification game 20 months ago which Chile won 2-1, that was a bit of a strange game, much of it was played at a very low tempo, which is un-Chile like, but I can see this being similarly low key at times and the hosts will be mindful of a possible six matches in the next month and not want to burn themselves out too soon. Ahead of last year's World Cup I wrote ..........
 

I like the chances of Chile, they are not going to feature in any other bets, so there is no harm in speaking openly about them and my cards are already on the table somewhat in terms of how I feel about them. Ahead of their friendly match with Germany in Berlin, back in March I wrote ....Germany started slowly in both of those , conceding five goals in total before the break, they also allowed a Zlatan less Sweden to score two first half goals in Stockholm back in October .Chile are better than all of those IMO and have impressed in recent friendlies, drawing 2-2 with Spain, beating England at Wembley 2-0 , losing out narrowly to Brazil (they had drawn with them six months earlier) and then putting four unanswered goals past Costa Rica. Interestingly they have scored 10 first half goals in their last seven friendlies and there must be a good chance they can get an early goal tonight, maybe two, if Germany are again so lacklustre early. Chile are a talented bunch and impressed greatly at Wembley, players like Alexis Sánchez, Eduardo Vargas and Arturo Vidal need little introduction to European football fans and the midfield especially is well established and experienced, with five having 50+ appearances to their name and all,in footballing terms at their peak aged in their late 20's.

 

Somehow, no one is still quite sure how, Germany won 1-0 in a match dominated by the South American side and on another day Chile would have won by 2-3 goals. They have not been seen out since, but host Egypt tomorrow in Santiago and then Northern Ireland in Valparaiso early next week, before departing for their base camp in Belo Horizonte. They are a talented group as any who saw the matches with those big three European sides will already be aware and group favourites Spain will not hold too much fear for them after the 2-2 draw in Geneva, where the World Champions needed a last minute equaliser to take a share of the spoils. Of course, that was a friendly, but now Chile will be on their own continent and I am hoping that by the time these two meet in Rio on Matchday 2, both might be happy to settle for a point and/or Spain be a little more tired having opened again the Dutch, whilst Chile will have had an "easier" opener against the Aussies.
 

The two were in the same group in South Africa four years ago, with Spain winning the group courtesy of beating Chile in the final game, but the South Americans had already qualified and were not quite as desperate for the points. This time they meet at the perfect stage for Chile (IMO) and La Roja can win the group. They are a "good age" with 17 of the 22 preliminary squad "perfectly aged between 25-30 and also experienced, with 13 having 25+ caps and all but two outfield players having scored.

Matias Fernandez is injured and misses out, but Alexis Sánchez, Eduardo Vargas and Arturo Vidal give them a real touch of class and they have grown up together and are used to the system that Chile play, initially implemented by Marcelo Bielsa and now carried on by the similarly minded Jorge Sampaoli (pictured), that means intense pressing, a fluidity of formtion and movement and wingbacks giving width at all times. Think Bilbao of two years ago and everything done at great pace. This is all about the collective, despite have some impressive talent at their disposal and has led to some big name players being sacrificed for the greater good, think the Borg as opposed to the Federation ......resistance is futile ! Only with a lot more flair!
 

Sampaoli made his name at Universidad de Chile winning the Copa Sudamericana going on a 36 match unbeaten run and seemingly changing formation at will, but always with a commitment to attack, with a philosophy of always thinking more about "your opponents goal, than your own. " He also "insists" on players enjoying themselves and looks for those who want to play for pride and love of their country and not other reasons. They are very hard to read and what looks like , 4-4-2 or even Sampaoli's preferred 3-4-3 is often something else entirely , with several variations within the formation.
 

I also spoke favourably about Ecuador ....

Ecuador have now qualified for three of the last four World Cup's and were very motivated this time round to return, having missed out on in South Africa, their upturn in fortune has coincided with the economic growth of the country, between 1999 and 2007 the GDP doubled ( up even 4% in 2012) and domestic football thrived as a result of the investment, with LDU Quito winning the Copa Libertadores in 2008 and filtering through to the national team, with players being able to earn good money at home. Their form in Quito (they were unbeaten through qualification) has caused a lot of people to write them off as unable to perform away from the capital, but similar things were said before Germany in 2006 and they made the last 16 there, losing to England. They have a very settled team and are strong down both flanks through Antonio Valencia who you will all know and Jefferson Montero who is very quick and perhaps made the move to Spain (Villarreal) too young, he has thrived at Morelia in Mexico and EPL and La Liga scouts have been watching him on a weekly basis. If you saw the Ecuador- Australia game earlier this year, you will probably remember him, he came off the bench with Ecuador 3-0 down and ripped the Aussies to pieces. This is a team with pace all over the pitch, they are going to surprise and are legitimate dark horses in a competition where I feel most of the European teams are up against it.
 

A few days after that I updated those notes......

I meant to mention Enner Valencia at the time, as I have heard and read only positive things about him, he was converted from a winger and knows where the goal is, he scored against England last week and won the Liga MX Golden Boot, scoring 12 goals in the 1st Phase (no one else had double figures) and adding six in the playoffs for Pachuca.He is unbelievably quick and very good in the air, another striker who has hit form at the perfect time and is in the shape of his life right now. He needs to edge out former Manchester City striker Felipe Caicedo in this market, but Caicedo has been struggling with injury and could not play against England, a match that Ecuador viewed as an important fixture and surely, right now there cannot be much between the pair and all the momentum is with Valencia.
 

Very few people in Europe had heard of Valencia at the time, but he made a huge impact and secured a big money move to Europe, they have several who can make the same transition and who will be hungry to impress on the big stage,for example,  if he gets a chance, I am keen to see Jonathan Gonzalez who is only 19yo and very small, but has blistering pace and has already made a name for himself in Mexico. no prices for guessing his nickname .........Speedy Gonzalez !

 

Ecuador did not make the impression with most watchers that Chile did, but I felt they were very unlucky not to reach the knockout stage and despite Antonio Valencia not being available this time round, Enner Valencia and Jefferson Montero give them an EPL goal threat and they are organised defensively and since ending their WC campaign by keeping France scoreless, they have played Mexico, USA, Brazil, Argentina and have never lost by more than a single goal, so in the last 12 months they have played three of the FIFA top ten ranked teams on neutral soil and drawn or lost by a single goal to each and I expect that trend to continue this evening.