This preview is taken from yesterday's newsletter and I will be back shortly in another post to talk a little about this, clubgowi and betting in general.
Championship: Brentford- AFC Bournemouth
When Brentford won at Leeds United just 14 days ago ( see preview at foot of email) everything seemed to be fine and rosy at Griffin Park and the unlikely ( the Bees in the EPL) more and more possible. However, the news broke that boss Mark Warburton , assistant David Weir and Director of Football Frank McParland were not going to be retained next season and the delay over an official announcement, left the club in turmoil. If you want to read a little more, the official statement from the club is at the very bottom of this newsletter and is an interesting read.
There is a lot more which has not been said and the problem is that to people who do not understand, it looks like Matthew Benham is an interfering owner, much like any other and there have been and are, many of those. That is not the case, put simply, Brentford could easily be playing non league football as I type and have an eight figue debt to boot, instead, they will be playing in the EPL at some stage in the next 3-4 seasons, in a brand new stadium , debt free, it should also be understood that Benham probably knows more about the game than 95% of "football men". Obviously, any real Brentford supporter who understands the situation will give the owner their full support and Warburton and Weir, their sympathy, it is terrible the way things played out, no one wanted that , it is not the Brentford way, but it is done and hopefully over the next week or so, normality of a sort will return.
It is going to be very difficult, but not impossible for the Bees to maintain a promotion push, but I do not doubt that everyone connected with the club will try. The news first broke just ahead of the Watford game, where they battled well but played 55 minutes against one of the better teams in the division with ten men and lost to a last minute winner, it was an emotioanl roller coaster of an evening, I was wiped out afterwards, goodness knows how the players and management felt and they were mentally drained and in no fit state to do themselves justice at Charlton Athletic last weekend and it was the worst performance of the season from Brentford. Since then, they players have been given time away from the club, the statement has been made and hopefully they have regrouped. Signs at Jersey Road (the training ground (were that they have) and the contract extension of senior player Jonathan Douglas, who is a leader on and off the pitch, was announced yesterday and I feel the timing was carefully chosen.
The bad news today is that Jake Bidwell is serving the second of his three match ban, which leaves a problem at left back and that is the flank where Bournemouth have huge pace and talent. This "issue" was part of the problem and the owner wanted to bring in players in three key areas, including this position and that was obviously the right thing to do. Brentford could go with Nico Yennaris like last week, but that doesn't seem fair to the youngster who was crucified out of position there and this could be worse, or Tony Craig, Alan McCormack, Stuart Dallas or Moses Odubajo, any option would be kind of out of position, but I know what I would go for, unfortunately (and it is a shame), I am not picking the team. Odubajo has a good left foot, pace to spare and has played on that flank quite a bit early in the season, when he was switching flanks with Jota through games. That would allow McCormack to come in on the other side of defence in his natural position. Dallas who saw out the hour against Watford manfully covering for Bidwell could play on the left of midfield and help defensively on that flank (Dallas would be my second choice at LB) . Big plus is that James Tarkowski looks set to return to central defence and Alan Judge who has been player of the season, has returned to training and should be fit for at least for a cameo role after missing seven games with injury, I do not know what they feed him on, think they just wind him up like the duracell bunny and let him loose, but his high energy performance is just what the Bees need right now.
If Bidwell was playing and I knew Judge could play for 45 minutes +, I would be all over Brentford plus the handicap start like a rash, even now , it just doesn't feel right, even with all that has gone on over the last 12 days. Brentford could have two from Judge/Dallas/Toral/ Jota on the bench ,which is a lot of talent to leave out , especially when the one area where the Cherries are short, is central midfield . They are without Arter and O'Kane for sure, Gosling might make the bench, just 7 wins in 23 starts over the last three seasons (one of which was a promotion campaign) without Arter, who leads a lot of team stats , including possession and he is a big loss, more so as he has been ever present this season.
Bees mentally might still have a hangover and a problem on the left, but a boost elsewhere in terms of returning players and the Cherries short in the middle. odds just do not feel right ( sorry to repeat that.....they don't !), so I am "forced" to put up 1.5 units Brentford +0.25 ball 2.00 asian line/Sportmarket.
I feel they will need two goals to win this and maybe to earn a point and they have scored two or more in 13 of their last 27 starts (48%) and in 8 of 13 (62%) at home, they are circa 2.625-2.75 (36-38%)to do so today and that seems a little on the generous side so 1.25 units if you like and can find that , especially as the visitors have conceded two or more in 52% of those starts without Arter.
Good Luck.
Tiny Brentford favourites to win at Elland Road, hold on while I go and find a pair of pliers to pinch myself ! However, the Bees now are not the team I have followed man and boy for ....well, far too many years(!) and deserve their spot at the top of the Championship food chain and will be playing Premier League football some time soon. We have already discussed how unlucky they were to lose to Boro, so instead, how about a look at my notes ahead of their previous game a win at highflying Norwich City .....
The win over Brighton was hard fought, but in truth, they could/should once again have scored another couple of goals and things have not been falling for them in front of goal, they missed 2-3 absolute sitters , worst of which was Jon Toral rounding the keeper and then getting the ball caught inbetween his feet, with a open goal about a metre in front of him ! On the plus side, Andre Gray whom we did well following earlier in the season, scored his first goal in four, after seven in eight previously and having missed a host over those interim three games and like most strikers being streaky once he gets one, we can make a case for him being due again today. At the back, goalkeeper David Button is looking immense right now, playing with huge confidence and just doesn't look like letting one in. Brighton gave the form a boost by getting back to winning ways immediately and beating highflying Ipswich Town in midweek.
This is a similar game to last week, in that City are a big club at this level, playing in front of packed houses each week, albeit with a stronger squad than the Seagulls, but not by much, Brighton are much better than the league table suggests and a top half finish probably awaits them. Once again, the Bees have been underestimated by the oddsmakers and I see no reason to desert them and having beaten the Seagulls and Bluebirds on the road recently, Canaries will be another one for the ornithologistic visitors ! The hosts are one of just two teams to have won at Griffin Park this season, it was a comprehensive 3-0 win, but Brentford were on top for significant periods and after falling behind were denied a clear penalty which everyone in the stadium saw apart from the referee, City scored the second whilst the Bees were still protesting, which of course is unprofessional, but by then it was game over. That was one of several decisions which went against them that night, they are not a team to overly focus on things like that, but the manager, who is always very gracious to the opposition and several players have mentioned it recently, it obviously still rankles and I do suspect they feel that there is a score to settle. Since that day the Bees have earned eight more points than City and have won as many road games as the hosts have at home, the Canaries have been scoring freely recently, with a whopping 14 goals in their last three home starts and are unbeaten under new boss Alex Neil. However, the honeymoon period is over for him now and coming from the SPL, he has no experience of English football for more than a decade and the Championship is a division where a little of that goes a very long way. Also, they have conceded in 12 of 13 home starts, two or more in three of their last five, can be far too gung ho at times and Brentford have the pace to exploit this on the break.
The Bees seem very likely to score, they have done so in their last 14 starts and City "always" concede at home, the visitors also have increased offensive options with young striker Christopher Long having signed a loan deal from Everton and he will almost certainly be used off the bench this afternoon. Cardiff City, Brighton and Reading have all scored two here revently and circa 3.0-3.20 for Brentford to do likewise, seems too big (0.75 units), especially with City and the Royals being very poor travellers and the trio only posting the same number of away wins between them as the Bees. For my "official " selection, it just has to be 1.5 units Brentford +0.75 ball 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket.
They landed both bets in winning 2-1 and it was a stunning performance, almost to a man, Canaries supporters said that the Bees were the best team to play at Carrow Road this season and in truth, they gave something of a masterclass, if they play at 90% of that level today, they will win with a degree of comfort. Brentford are as close a group of players as you will ever see, they are young, many of them live together, very close to the ground and they have bought into the project, they have to or they would not be at the club. Defeats hurt, as they should, especially unjust ones and they will be up for this today, senior player Alan McCormack is now back in contention after three months out injured, player of the season Alan Judge is close to a return , new signing Lewis Macleod likewise and they added one more before the window in Jack O’Connell from Blackburn Rovers, but he, like Macleod was really brought for next season and beyond. But increased options for an already strong squad.
Leeds are coming off two good results, a defeat of league leaders Bournemouth here and win at Huddersfield Town last week in the Yorkshire derby. Bees watched both of course, but were especially interested in the first as the Cherries do play a similar style to the Bees, just with not quite the same elan ! Visiting head coach Mark Warburton noted that they pressed hard with high energy and good movement in midfield from Luke Murphy and Lewis Cook and we all (or those of us who were at GP) saw in the reverse fixture that was where their strength lies, but they were comprehensively outplayed there in a 2-0 win, which could easily have been doubled and whilst I accept that they might have more about them under Neil Redfearn , Brentford have progressed greatly since that day.
Despite losing here, Bournemouth had 61% of possession , 17 attempts on goal , missed a penalty and were denied by a wonderful long range strike, United needed a lot to go their way to win that and I suspect will again need to dodge a few bullets to take the points here, away win for me. 1.5 units Brentford -0.25 ball 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket.
BRENTFORD FC OFFICIAL STATEMENT
Brentford Football Club would like to update supporters on planned changes to the football management to come in to effect from the end of the season.
Club Owner Matthew Benham has met with Sporting Director Frank McParland, Manager Mark Warburton and Assistant Manager David Weir and the Club has reached agreement on terms for their departure.
The board, with Matthew’s approval, has made the decision that the trio will leave Brentford at the end of the 2014/15 season.
Mark and David will continue to work with the first-team on a day-to-day basis through to the end of the season – with the support and backing of Matthew and the Club’s Board – as Brentford push for promotion to the Premier League.
Matthew, a Brentford fan since 1979, who has owned the majority shareholding in the Club since June 2012, has decided to make changes in order to ensure the long-term prosperity of the Club.
Matthew and members of the Board have been in discussions with Manager Mark Warburton and other football staff about the future direction of the Club for many weeks, prior to stories appearing in the media last week.
As part of a remodelling of the Club’s football management, a Head Coach will be appointed to work alongside a new Sporting Director.
There will also be a new recruitment structure using a mixture of traditional scouting and other tools including mathematical modelling.
As part of the new recruitment structure, the Head Coach will have a strong input in to the players brought in to the Club but not an absolute veto.
The club wish to implement these changes in time for the next transfer window that opens this summer and to best ensure a smooth transition to the new recruitment model current Sporting Director Frank McParland has been placed on gardening leave.
The club want the new structure to be a long-term way of working which is independent of whoever is in the Head Coach role.
Frank, Mark and David have decided, following long discussions with Matthew that they feel unable to work under the changed structure and approach as it differs from their football philosophy.
Matthew Benham said: “I am a passionate Brentford fan and every decision I take is intended to be in the best long term interests of the Club.
“Some of the decisions taken to date have been easy and some, like this one, have been extremely hard.
Cliff Crown, Chairman of Brentford FC said: “Lots of clubs are criticised for short term thinking – we want to take a long term view and put structures in place that both the Board and the owner believe will be to the benefit of Brentford FC for years to come.
“The new structure is unusual in English football, although commonplace in other European countries and in other sports.
“We would have loved for Mark to stay, working within the new structure, but he feels that this is not right for him.
“We understand that completely and had to weigh up the benefits of the new structure against losing a fantastically successful manager before taking this decision.
“Recent press articles made it impossible to continue orderly discussions in private about the next steps for the Club.
“We regret this happening and fully appreciate that the uncertainty and often inaccurate speculation has been unsatisfactory for fans.
“We must now focus totally on the remainder of the season.
Matthew Benham also said: “Under Mark’s stewardship, Brentford have achieved a high league position and played football which is a joy to watch.
“It is difficult to seek to implement change, particularly when things appear to be going so well, but I am single minded in my resolve that we can leave no stone unturned in our quest for sustainable Premier League Football.
“Innovation, not increased funding, can be the only route to success for clubs such as ours, and I fully accept that innovation is never without risk.
“We are continuing to build a strong base for the future.
“Everything has been perfectly amicable between all parties and we remain friends.”
Mark Warburton said: “I will be forever grateful to Matthew for giving me the opportunity to be Manager of this fantastic Football Club and for what he has done for the Club since I have been here.
“It has been an absolute honour and a privilege to do the job and I have had the pleasure of working with a fantastic group of players and staff and have enjoyed the backing of a magnificent set of supporters.
“While I am disappointed that we have been unable to reconcile some key philosophical differences, I’m relieved we now have clarity.
“In my remaining time at the Club we shall move heaven and earth to get the promotion that the players, fans and Matthew deserve and going forward, I wish the club every success in its ongoing adventure.
“I have enormous respect for Matthew and his investment in the Club and he has the absolute right to run the club in the manner he deems most appropriate and beneficial.
“I have the privilege of managing an outstanding group of players, a group which has demonstrated a work ethic, a harmony and no shortage of quality.
“David and I, and indeed all the staff, remain totally focussed on supporting this squad of players and ensuring they are best prepared for each and every remaining fixture this season.
“Please be absolutely reassured that nothing will detract from our work for Brentford Football Club between now and the end of the season.”
