Champions League takes centre stage this midweek .......
Apr 15, 2025
Two bets in today's newsletter, one larger stake suggestion at odds of 4.72 and a smaller bet that you can also see below .....
Champions League: Aston Villa- Paris St Germain
I am a big fan of this version of PSG and sided with them to score three goals in last week's first leg.....
==========================
I have laid my PSG cards flat on the table and ahead of their first leg game with Liverpool last month my notes included.....
PSG has basically been owned by the Qatari sovereign-wealth fund since 2011, their massive investment has brought 10 of the last 12 Ligue 1 titles and 24 other domestic cups! What it has not brought to date is their Holy Grail, a Champions League title. This will be their 13th straight season in Europe's premier club competition, they have made it to the knockout stage each time, the last 8 on 7 occasions, three semis and one final, but no trophy. Mbappe, Neymar, Messi, Zlatan, Cavani and others all tried to help, but to no avail. This season they look more of a team, but without that global superstar, or at least one who is not a massive name on the world stage yet and perhaps that will provide the key to opening the CL door.
I have been impressed by PSG this season, more so than for many years and this group does not carry much, if any of the old baggage from all those close, but no cigar, CL attempts.PSG head coach Luis Enrique has promised to play to his strengths and very offensively and he will have been pleased to see how much joy Lille had against Liverpool, and at Anfield, at the end of January. Everton and Villa both scored twice when hosting Liverpool last month and were the better team(s) for lengthy periods and the visitors can be got at, if opponents are brave and I expect the Parisians to be just that!
Ahead of the second leg I updated with ......
Where to start!
Liverpool won 1-0 so that is the bare fact of the matter and where we stand this morning. However, it was incredibly one sided and not in favour of the Reds, who had some last ditch defending and a superstar performance from Alisson in the visitors goal to thank for the result. After being battered for almost 90 minutes, Liverpool scored very late on to seal the ultimate smash and grab victory. Stand out stats saw PSG "winning" attempts 27-2, ITB 11-2, on target 10-1, TIPA 52-13, corners 14-2, saves 0-9 (at least five of which were world class!). Even that doesn't really tell the full story! Alisson put in one of the great all time performances and PSG were probably the most impressive team I have seen in the last 4-5 seasons, matching their ability with massive hunger to win the ball from all 10 outfield players. It is hard to see how they can take anything but confidence from that showing and if they play to even 80-90% of that level, I would expect them to turn this around.
They did turn it around and have been relentless subsequently. Villa might take some comfort from the fact that Liverpool won in Paris, but the truth is that they were battered almost senseless that night and it is inconceivable that PSG could play to that same level again without winning by 2-3-4 goals, so take what you will from that game!
That was the only PSG loss in 29 starts and they have won 24 of the last 27, scoring 4 + goals in 12 of those and tonight they are looking for an EPL knockout stage hatrick after seeing off Man City ( win 4-2 here in Paris) and the Reds already. Villa are a very decent Premier League team with a lot of offensive options and a head coach with an amazing record in European club competitions, but they do not have the Champions League experience in their ranks that the other remaining teams do. They can be pleased with what they have achieved and whilst I do not for one moment feel that they will think like this, I am not sure in the bigger picture that progression to the semi finals if they are not going to win the whole thing, is as big as finishing top 5 in the league and starting to build a dynasty. They also have an FA Cup semi final to play and this will be their 48th game of the season, with at least another nine left to play and given the quality of opposition they have faced, this is all unknown territory. They have lost nine away games, all since November and four of those by three + goals ( Newcastle/Chelsea/Tottenham/
============================
PSG won 3-1, the third goal came late, but it would have been a travesty of justice had it not come at all after they posted some massive numbers in that game.....29 attempts, 19 ITB, 10 on target and 58(!) TIPA's, being denied by 8 saves and the woodwork. They made 841 passes, 795 of which were accurate, but this next stat is amazing! They made 355 (92%) accurate passes in the final third, to give that some context, in beating Dortmund 4-0, Barcelona had 115 @ 78% in the same category and Manchester City, in scoring five against Crystal Palace at the weekend, had 163 (80%). I struggle to get my head around those PSG numbers which are another level of brilliance entirely.
I know they hold a two goal advantage and do not need to win, but Villa will have to be brave and open up more than most teams do against PSG and I can only see this ending one way and it is going to be rare to see odds against for the visitors anytime soon and I feel they have to be taken.
1.25 units Paris St Germain -1 ball @ 3.0 asian line.
Good luck!
We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.
Sport:
Competition:
Football Teams: