Goal difference: It's more important than you might think!
Nov 12, 2024
I often write in my notes to clubgowi subscribers that goal difference is a good indicator of true underlying ability of a team and one you can make with a quick glance at a league table. It is not foolproof but has stood the test of time and is a good place to start, especially at the beginning of a new season and in the EPL and EFL where games are so competitive and also where teams are playing 38-46 rounds, so a pretty big sample.
What I am usually making note of are stand out numbers, for example, if a team is in the bottom half of the table with a positive goal difference, they are probably in a false position and you can then run with that and check out some of their other numbers/metrics.
If we look at the 2023/24 campaigns, in the EPL, West Ham United had the worst goal difference in the top half of the table of -14, which was 13 goals worst than anyone else, despite coming into this season with so much optimism, a new head coach and on a spending spree, they are currently 14th and nearer to the drop zone than 9th place. Fulham and Brighton had the best lower half goal difference and they are now both top 7.
The Championship makes even better/worse reading! Cardiff City and Preston North End were the worst by a country mile amongst the top half teams, with respective -17 and -11 goal differences, 3rd worst was +2 and then +8! City are currently 22nd and North End 20th. Best amongst the bottom half of the table teams last season were Watford in 15th on +/- 0 and Sunderland -2, looking at the table this morning those two are 6th and 1st!
At the conclusion of the 23/24 League 1 season, Leyton Orient were the only team to finish in the top half without a positive GD and this morning they sit in 20th place.
As I started by saying, not foolproof but always worth checking out, especially when those numbers stand out like a sore thumb.
Good luck!
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