Looking for the Wimbledon hat-trick!
Jul 13, 2024
WTA Wimbledon: Barbora Krejcikova- Jasmine Paolini
I have previewed just two matches at Wimbledon this year, Barbora Krejcikova's quarter final defeat of Jelena Ostapenko and Jasmine Paolini's three set semi final classic win over Donna Vekic (notes on both are reproduced at the foot of this email). I am pleased with both, but a little angry with myself, maybe more than a little , in that I did not follow up and back the Czech player to beat Elena Rybakina at massive odds in the semi final. That is very much my modus operandi and my notes on both her games featured heavily on her tennis IQ and if there is a more intelligent player on tour than Krejcikova, I am not sure what her name is! When a player has ability and can out think their opponent then we should always be betting at such ridiculously big odds and have I said I am angry with myself?
We have a weird final between two "non grass courters", but Krejcikova could play on quicksand and work out how to win and can be as good on grass as she wants to be and importantly, she now knows that too! There is much to like about Paolini and nice to see someone playing high profile tennis with a smile on their face, even when things are not going their way and it is easy to see why when you watch her mother, who is having fun and becoming a bit of a star herself.
The two have met once previously, in an Australian Open first round qualifier back in 2018, it means nothing at all really, but the Czech player won 1&2 and if you had said to her at the time that the next time they met, Paolini would be world number 5 I doubt she would not have believed you, to say nothing of it being in a Wimbledon final!
I am big on Krejcikova, she is a winner and has a 7-3 record in finals when her own ranking is top 50 and that includes two wins over Iga Swiatek, the best player on the planet and who has only lost four finals in her career, half of them to the Czech player. Paolini is 1-3 in finals when her own ranking is top 50 and the only victory was over a qualifier, in that she needed three sets and in the other three, she won just a total of 11 games and if she starts as slowly as she did in her semi final, a repeat is firmly on the cards.
I recall an interview she gave in 2022 when Krejcikova was frustrated that she was not given the credit she was due and felt she at least be in the conversation when the top players on tour were discussed, now is the chance to put that right once and for all and the Guardian website described her abilities and what she brings to the game this morning better than I ever could ........
Krejcikova is a breath of fresh air in an era of one-note attacking baseliners on the ATP and WTA tours. Her game is so easy on the eye; while her groundstrokes are produced with long, flowing swings, her hand-eye coordination and timing are so brilliant that even on faster surfaces she is rarely rushed. Krejcikova has a precise first serve, and her heavy topspin forehand generates wicked angles and can tear apart most defences.
But she has a deep toolbox of shots, with the weapons to punch back against the many enormous shotmakers and the guile and variety to diffuse their power.
Over the past few weeks, those skills have been key. Against three of the biggest ball strikers – Danielle Collins, Jelena Ostapenko and Rybakina – Krejcikova disrupted their booming groundstrokes with low, skidding slices, keeping them guessing by mixing in drop shots and net forays. The way she worked her way into the semi-final and Rybakina’s head, after the Kazakhstani led 5-1, was a masterclass in how to disrupt an opponent.
1.75 units Barbora Krejcikova to win 2-0 in sets 2.91 Pinnacle/Vegas Line.
Good luck!
WTA Wimbledon: Jelena Ostapenko- Barbora Krejcikova
We have a quarter final today between two winners of the French Open who have only once gone beyond the QF of any other slam,although Jelena Ostapenko would have to be considered a grass court specialist, Barbora Krejcikova not, but maybe she is starting to believe that she can win on the surface.
There are few players more fun to watch in tennis than an inform Jelena Ostapenko, or even an out of form JO to be honest. She is ultra aggressive and early in her career , her playing style was famously dubbed, "see ball, hit winner!"
We have always done well with her and the year she won Roland Garros as a 19yo she was totally unplayable. Early in 2022 I touched upon all of that and the issues she had faced subsequently and with her game .......
Jelena Ostapenko is a one off, a world class talent on her day, who won Wimbledon as a Junior, the 2017 French Open at age 19, broke into the top 10 ( reaching as high as 5) , but who's ranking has bounced around the 20-50 mark for the last two years. She has had some real second serve demons and can/could basically only play one way, which is to try and hit as hard a winner as possible from every ball , regardless of position on court, that was always fun to watch, but must be frustrating to coach and she just cannot help herself.
I spoke about much of this at Eastbourne last summer ............
Jelena Ostapenko has some big scalps already here at Eastbourne, Pavlyuchenkova , Jabeur and Kasatkina, the last two made the final last week in Birmingham and are on the rise. The Latvian made the Wimbledon semi finals in 2018 and the last eight in 2017, she has 28 wins on the surface and within that, winning records against top 50 (17-10), top 20 ( 6-4) and top 10 (3-2 ) players, at Eastbourne she is 9-4.JO is a bit of an enigma, she has a relentless approach almost always going for her shots and can be unplayable when it all clicks, witness her 2017 Roland Garros win as a 19 yo , but has always lacked consistency and has had huge serve issues and her second serve has long been a liability , but she ranks herself the best returner in tennis and she is definitely up there in that category. I think she has been unlucky, she had major upsets ( injury and losing a parent ) just as two of the last three tennis years were about to start and that made it difficult to build momentum or get into a groove, as the off and early season is vital for that IMO and her ranking fell from #5 to #82. She looked on the up once more, but then last year her father passed away and COVID stalled everything.
She actually won that event, her first tournament win for 21 months and later had a really nice run to the semi finals in Indian Wells and came to Melbourne ranked #27 (highest since May 2019) she is clearly at least of that top 20 ability and higher when things fall into place, but you have no way of truly knowing when that might be. However, in slams she is usually a little more focussed and is 32-16 v players ranked 21+ and a fine 22-7 v those 51+ and Riske is right in the middle of those two, but perhaps fortunate to be ranked as high as she is currently.
The two have faced each other just once before and it came in a hard court slam in the 2019 US Open, Ostapenko won 3&4 (in R2 same as today), the Latvian star hit 53 unforced errors/ 17 double faults (!!!) and still only dropped 7 games, which is close to impossible, but augurs well for today. She was double faulting almost three times as much through that period as she is now, it is still a concern at times, but looks increasingly less so, he said with fingers crossed ! She opened with a three set win over Schmiedlova , dropped a good lead in the tie break to drop the first set , but continued to play patiently which is real progress, she waited for her chances and eventually got on top, winning 8 of the last 9 games .
She is back up to #10 in the live rankings this morning and a win today would take her to #9, her highest for six years and she is firmly back on track. Ostapenko is 46-19 on grass versus players like Krejcikova who are ranked 21+ and that more than tallies with her odds of 1.48 to win today, but her Czech opponent is no normal #32 ranked player. First up, she is up to #22 on the live list and would be #18 with the win. Also, she was similarly ranked (#33) when winning the 2021 French Open and went directly to Wimbledon that year and reached the R16 here which is very difficult without a warm up event, before losing in a close match to eventual champion and world number one, Ash Barty. Her clay court season ended early this year and that has allowed her to prepare properly for Wimbledon and today will be her 9th match on grass and she has the talent to push Ostapenko and the two met on the surface last year (Birmingham final) which JO won 7-6 (10-8) 6-4. It was as close as that sounds, the ultimate battle of power against guile and Krejcikova disrupted the Latvian's rhythm with her variety of shots and that performance has, I feel, given her confidence that she can now play on the surface and beat Ostapenko on it.
If forced to pick the winner I would have to go with Ostapenko, but that is not the name of the game and I see her chance as more of the 57-60% variety and any value has to be with ............
2 units Barbora Krejcikova to win @ 2.84 Pinnacle/ Vegas Line.
Either way, this should be a fun watch!
WTA Wimbledon: Donna Vekic- Jasmine Paolini
Incredible year for Jasmine Paolini who was ranked outside the top 50 a year ago, but is up to #5 in the live rankings and she is looking to make back to back slam finals by winning today. However, I am still not fully convinced she is a grass court player and amazingly, she was 3-12 lifetime on the surface until 2.5 weeks ago, with her three wins coming over players ranked 128, 601 and 1035. Obviously her confidence/self belief levels are through the roof right now and she is playing as well as anyone on tour , but I am not sure she should be a circa 63% chance today.
Donna Vekic is up to #21 on the live rankings and #15 with the win. She loves grass and played three tournaments in build up, making the final in the last at Bad Homburg. Vekic has 55 grass court wins to her name, including 4 over top ten opponents. However, she has shown nerves before and this is her first ever slam semi final and has already played four, three set matches. Infact, 8 of her 13 grass court matches this year have gone the distance. I like this one to go all the way.
1.75 units "over" 2.5 sets 2.42 Pinnacle/ Vegas Line.
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