J-League 1 : Gamba-Marinos
May 20, 2023
Japan J-League 1: Gamba Osaka - Yokohama F.Marinos
Two weeks ago Marinos hosted Kyoto and my notes included...........
Defending champions Marinos are up to 2nd, but xP says they are midtable and despite conceding 12 goals, four more than the other top 4 teams, xGA is far worse and only better than four teams in the whole of J-league and these issues are deep rooted and long term despite their continued high placing and reputation.........don't believe the hype!
We have already discussed Marinos and we know their strength (offensively) and issues (defence). They have taken four points from two games since i ran the seasonal numbers for J-League last Friday and it was more of the same and then some and Marinos dodged a lot of bullets and rode their luck for most of the 180 minutes. For the season they are now.........
xG 14.7-17.9
BC's 22-23
ITB 85-102
Those are terrible defensive numbers and they are incredibly fortunate to have only conceded 12 goals.
Kyoto Sanga are 8 points worse off, their own numbers are a respective 13.8-14.9 // 19-20// 83-88 largely similar and much better offensively that we would expect from a team in their league position. XP places them level with YFM and with the hosts having conceded in 6/8 at home, we have to side with the big priced visitors in some way.
YFM won 4-1, but lost 2-1 at a struggling Albirex Niigata last week and were -3 for BC's in that.
Gamba made the preseason notes.......
Gamba Osaka finished 15th with 37 points, xP just 18 points ..........-19
I will talk a little more about these six next week, but for now, I will add that long term clubgowi darlings Gamba Osaka were already very low in 15th, so might not have much downside and they are a name club, expected to do well. However, their -11 goal difference was the worst outside the drop zone and that is hardly a ringing endorsement and definite caution is advised until they prove that the real Gamba are back.
They are bottom of the table this morning, so there was some room to go backwards!
Gamba have won just 10 /45 home starts, losing (21). They have scored in their last 7, ten goals total and in 10/10 when hosting YFM, conceding in 9 and losing six, which is how I feel this will play out. Marinos did Gamba (and us) a big favour late last season, so there will either be some payback or revenge on the cards, at that time hosts YFM were en-route to the title, Gamba bottom two and I wrote .........
First up is Gamba Osaka who for the last 8-9 years have been a newsletter favourite and served as well as almost any team in world football, so they owe us nothing, but could possibly do us one more favour . I would be sad to see them relegated, but have tried to keep sentiment out of their plight in recent weeks and have swerved them and even opposed Gamba a couple of times and today is as hard as it could be, playing leaders Marinos on the road. But they have a very solid record in Yokohama, losing just 1/7 visits and winning the last two. The visitors are also stronger on the road than in Osaka and whilst Marinos are unbeaten at home, they have had some (relatively) poor underlying defensive numbers for most of the campaign and will hold a 5 point lead (effectively six with GD) with three games to play regardless of what happens today. Gamba surely have to look for six points from just three remaining, the home game with Jubilo is a great chance, but the other is a trip to Antlers, so it is here or there. They do not play again (Jubilo) for 21 days so will surely go out on their shield today, leaving nothing on the pitch , Marinos actually host Jubilo themselves this coming Wednesday so have another upcoming chance. If I had to name the winner, of course it would be Marinos, but that is not the name of the game and Gamba's chance, given what is at stake, is certainly better than 13-14% and they are the call.
1.75 units Gamba Osaka to win (-0.5 ball) 7.39 asian line.
That was a famous day, at least in my household (!), with Gamba winning 2-0.
Hosts have scored in 9 straight home games and a 10th is likely, but Marinos rarely lose back to back and won 4-1/2-1/5-0 next time out after their last three defeats and I expect all the trends to continue.
2 units Yokohama F.Marinos to win and both teams to score 3.61 asian line.
Good luck!
We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.
Country:
Sport:
Competition:
Football Teams: