2023				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Vissel Kobe	11	7	2	2	23	8	+15	23	XWLW	6	3	1	2	9	4	5	4	1	0	14	4
	2		Yokohama F-Marinos	11	6	3	2	21	12	+9	21	WXWX	5	3	2	0	11	3	6	3	1	2	10	9
	3		Nagoya Grampus 8	11	5	5	1	15	8	+7	20	XXXW	5	1	4	0	5	4	6	4	1	1	10	4
	4		Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	6	2	2	13	7	+6	20	WLWW	5	2	1	2	4	4	5	4	1	0	9	3
	5		Avispa Fukuoka	11	5	3	3	14	13	+1	18	WLXL	6	5	0	1	9	6	5	0	3	2	5	7
	6		Urawa Reds	9	5	2	2	13	8	+5	17	XWOW	3	3	0	0	8	3	6	2	2	2	5	5
	7		Cerezo Osaka	11	5	2	4	15	14	+1	17	WLWW	6	3	1	2	9	8	5	2	1	2	6	6
	8		Kashima Antlers	11	5	1	5	16	13	+3	16	WWWL	5	1	1	3	7	9	6	4	0	2	9	4
	9		FC Tokyo	11	4	3	4	13	12	+1	15	LWWL	5	3	1	1	10	6	6	1	2	3	3	6
	10		Kawasaki Frontale	11	4	3	4	14	14	+0	15	WWXL	5	0	3	2	4	6	6	4	0	2	10	8
	11		Consadole Sapporo	11	3	4	4	20	21	-1	13	LWXL	5	1	1	3	8	10	6	2	3	1	12	11
	12		Kyoto Sanga	11	4	1	6	14	15	-1	13	LXLW	6	2	0	4	6	10	5	2	1	2	8	5
	13		Albirex Niigata	11	3	3	5	13	17	-4	12	LLLW	5	2	1	2	7	9	6	1	2	3	6	8
	14		Shonan Bellmare	11	2	5	4	19	18	+1	11	LLXX	5	1	2	2	8	8	6	1	3	2	11	10
	15		Sagan Tosu	10	3	2	5	10	16	-6	11	LWXL	6	2	1	3	5	10	4	1	1	2	5	6
	16		Kashiwa Reysol	11	2	4	5	8	15	-7	10	WXLX	6	1	3	2	5	10	5	1	1	3	3	5
	17		Gamba Osaka	11	1	4	6	12	24	-12	7	LLXL	6	1	3	2	8	8	5	0	1	4	4	16
	18		Yokohama FC	11	1	3	7	9	27	-18	6	WLXL	7	1	1	5	5	16	4	0	2	2	4	11

We are now approaching a third of the way through the season for most clubs and fitness levels should be at their peak and at the stage where luck, good or bad, should start to even out, so a good time to look at what we expected before the season began.

 

In early February (preseason) I wrote .........
 

 

 

 

 

Looking at xP for this season briefly, whilst sounding like a broken record ,Sanfrecce are the best team by some way and should be a perfect 10/10! Avispa come in having underachieved by 5-6 points despite their lofty position and might have more improvement to come. Antlers have picked up after a very slow start to their campaign , winning their last three without conceding and are seen as some six points better. Looking towards the bottom end of the table, Reysol should have at least six more points. Sagan are very fortunate to have 11 points on board, xP gives them just 2 and their xGD is just shy of -1.0 goal per game to highlight that. Defending champions Marinos are up to 2nd, but xP says they are midtable and despite conceding 12 goals, four more than the other top 4 teams, xGA is far worse and only better than four teams in the whole of J-league and these issues are deep rooted and long term despite their continued high placing and reputation.........don't believe the hype!

 

 

 

Last weekend FC Tokyo hosted the aforementioned Albirex and I noted ....... FCT's look better, but their last four game stats are just terrible and they are creating very little, we also expected a fall off from them this season, after they overachieved to the tune of 14 points over expected levels in 2022.

 

They won that 2-1 and deserved the win albeit without creating too much, in midweek they lost 1-0 at and were again very disappointing statistically , 2-16 attempts, 0-11 ITB (1), 0-5 on target, 0-2 BC's and 4-0 saves. That is the 5th timein six starts they have created little or nothing , the other was against Albirex and that probably says more about them than FCT.

 

Last week Consadole travelled to bottom of the table Yokohama and my notes included ......... I never mention Consadole Sapporo without saying the same old thing and that is that they are consistently inconsistent, they can beat or lose to almost anyone and score 3 here, or concede 3 there and rarely play the same in back to back games. That is all backed up by their numbers, which are the usual mixture for them of red and blue. They will doubtless fancy this as Yokohama are bottom of the table and a defensive mess, but xGF suggests they should have scored more and if they are going to win a game, it is as likely today as any other time and Consadole could lose this and beat a strong team next week and no one would bat an eyelid.

 

They won that 4-1 , in midweek they lost 1-0 at home to a better team in Kashima Antlers, not surprise that there was a W/L for Consadole, but it would have been more in keeping with their reputation if they had lost to Yokohama and beaten Antlers! Anyway, we can expect them to bounce back today as that is what they do and they are the 3rd best offensive team in JL-1 right now, before coming up short in midweek, they had scored 2-2-2-3-3-1-2-4 in tehir previous eight starts, have not drawn a blank back to back in 10 months and are far stronger on the front foot than FCT.

 

 

 

 

Gamba have been clubgowi favourites for many years and few of us who were involved will ever forget that treble winning season, which rather incredibly was their first back in the top flight, but that was a long time ago now. It is a while since we also saw their almost customary late season charge too and our preseason stats suggested that they were worse than even 15th place suggested in 2022 and significantly so, see above. XP gave them just 18 points last season, making them the biggest overachievers , right now they have 7, putting them on course for 21-22 points adn this is teh kind of level they have played at for at least 15 months. It doesn't look good! They have conceded 24 goals, 16 in five away starts(3.2 per game). 

 

Nagoya are second despite only winning one of five home games (4 draws) , but their last 6-7 games offensive numbers have been fantastic and I touched upon that last weekend.........

 

We never expect Nagoya to score many, but some of their numbers are very good indeed and their last four game BC and ITB stats are the best in J-League and they are creating premium chances for fun (16 in last 4 starts).

 

They have drawn the last two as host 2-2 , missing 4 BC's and need to stop misfiring, not so worried about the four conceded going forward as that is very unlike them and doesn't tally with their overall numbers. However, for today this is a traditionally high scoring fixture, both here and in Osaka and 15 of the last 20 h2h meetings have produced 4+ goals and taht would match the Gamba defensive issues and Nagoya conceding four in their last two as host and I feel going big on goals works well alongside the home win with BTS option, 3-1 or 3-2 would be perfect, but we have some cover for the upset (2-2/2-3) or it all falling into place offensively for Nagoya as it surely eventually will (4-0).

 

 

 

 

Good luck!