Bundesliga betting tip ............
Jan 27, 2023
Bundesliga :
A week ago, ahead of the Bundesliga restart I noted ..........
We have had a "scheduled" break like no other in the Bundesliga, or in any top five league for that matter, and the ten week hiatus, and how teams will handle it, is the big unknown as we restart the 22/23 campaign. Last season, the winter break was just three weeks and came as usual, after 17 games, this season we have additionally only played 15 rounds, so 19 games remain. However, we can start with a quick look at how the second half of 21/22 played out, as this is very much the second half after such a long break. The two teams who really came on strong in the early part of 2022 were Leverkusen and Leipzig who each collected 36 points (2.12 pg) , a Bundesliga high. That enabled RBL to move up from 10th to 4th and Leverkusen, currently 12th, will be hoping to replicate that feat. The teams who faded badly in the second half of the last campaign were Hoffenheim (18 points, falling from 5th to 9th) , Frankfurt (15 points, dropping from 6th to 11th)) and Hertha (12 points, 11th at the break, they finished 16th and survived via the relegation playoff). I think we can forgive Frankfurt, they went deep in the Europa League and successfully put all their eggs in that basket, winning the competition and securing Champions League football. They made it through the group stage, as did all four Bundesliga teams in Eintracht, Bayern, Dortmund and Leipzig, with only Leverkusen missing out (but they are in the Europa League knockout stage).
RB Leipzig- Stuttgart
Leipzig started with a home game with Bayern and I further updated with ......
Leipzig are no goal scoring slouches either , with 24 in their last 10 and they also won their last four, posting some very solid numbers, witness a 3-1 win over second placed Freiburg where they were 2.95-0.18 for xG, 5-0 BC's and 11-3 ITB.
They drew that 1-1 and then won 6-1 away to Schalke in midweek, with the game over at half time when they were 4-0 up.
Stuttgart have (re)started with a 1-1 home draw with Mainz where they were clearly the better team and then a 2-2 draw away to Hoffenheim, where they led before being reduced to ten men, ahead of that I wrote ..........
Stuttgart are three points and league places below the home side, but could take far more from their restart game, it was only a point in a 1-1 draw with Mainz, but they were "moral winners" with 1.91 xGF, winning BC's 4-1 and ITB 9-7. Ahead of that I noted ......
This is Stuttgart's third season back in the top flight, they finished 9th and 15th in the first two, they were very offensive and entertaining to watch in the first , a little less so last season, but their numbers suggested they should have scored 9 more goals and had a significantly better goal difference (-5 instead of -18). This season they should be -1 instead of -9 and we can expect them to pick up and get more in line with expected numbers at some stage and they might already have begun that process. They won their last three home starts in league and cup scoring 10 goals and they are looking to complete a hat-trick of home wins over Mainz. The visitors were winless in four before the break, conceding 11 goals, one was a 6-2 defeat in Bayern where their number were ok, believe it or not, but the other three included a 3-0 home defeat to Wolfsburg and 1-0 loss away to basement club Schalke where they were fortunate to score nil and were comprehensively outplayed, losing BC's 4-0.
Obviously Stuttgart are playing better than their position suggests, but are struggling to convert chances, despite which, it is much easier to be positive about them than Hoffenheim , who look like they are evolving from tail spin into free fall!
Two teams creating chances are set to entertain us this evening. Leipzig can move into second place and to within a point of Bayern with the three points and xP already not only places then second, but six points ahead of the chasing pack, so they would be in that position on merit and with the leaders wobbling, who knows what lies ahead and this feels like a big game for RBL. Stuttgart are only outside the drop zone on goal difference, but are clearly better than that and xP sees them as 6th and right in the heart of that "expected" group chasing Leipzig. The hosts won the meeting here last season 4-0, but the two shared the points in an early season draw in Stuttgart (1-1) and I would be a little surprised were the visitors not to score this evening.
Both teams have scored in 8 of RBL's last nine starts and in 5 of their last 6 wins. Stuttgart have scored 11 in their last 9 Bundesliga away games.
2 units Leipzig to win and both teams to score 3.20 asian line.
Good luck!
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