Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
49ers are the better team, are at home, played in the early Saturday game last weekend, Dallas in the Monday night game in Florida and that makes for a shorter and far tougher week, with a lot of air miles (6,000 km) and as I am fond of saying, no one travels easily in the NFL. The Cowboys have also crossed four time zones to play the two games. Both won their wildcard games convincingly, but I was more impressed by the Niners, they just look a beast defensively, having multiple offensive options and my only concern ahead of the game with Seattle was with their rookie and inexperienced quarterback..........
It is a crying shame that the Niners have to come into the postseason with a rookie quarterback, that is not a criticism of Brock Purdy , but he was a 7th round draft pick and. the only just turned 23 yo wouldn't have played or come close to doing so, without injuries to the two QB's ahead of him in the pecking order. Having said that Purdy is 6-0 as a starter, with 13 TD's to 3 INT and that includes a 21-13 win in Seattle in Week 15 , making it a sweep of the Seahawks for the Niners for the first time since 2011, as they won 27-7 here at Levi's Stadium in early season. Purdy is not asked to do too much, the Niners have an elite defense (best scoring defense too) , a very strong running game and some hugely talented receivers to rely on, with TE George Kittle back to his best and him, along with Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey all firing at the same time and the youngster just needs to stay largely error free. This is a bad matchup for the Seahawks as we saw in the two regular season meetings and highlighted by the following stats, with SF strong, where the Seahawks are weak.......
49ers RBs have averaged 111.9 rushing yards per game this season — fifth-best in NFL. The Seahawks have allowed an average of 151.1 rushing yards per game this season — third-worst in NFL.
49ers RBs have 47.4 receiving yards per game this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Seahawks have averaged 42.7 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs this season — fifth-worst in NFL.
49ers RBs have gained 806 yards on 87 receptions (9.3 YPR) this season — third-best in NFL. The Seahawks have allowed 8.2 Yards Per Reception to RBs this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.
The Seahawks have run successful plays on just 38.7% of rush attempts this season — tied for second-worst in NFL. 49ers have allowed successful plays on just 38.2% of rush attempts this season — second-best in NFL.
The Seahawks are averaging just 2.1 yards per carry on 3rd and short this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed just 2.5 yards per carry when defending on 3rd and short this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
The Seahawks have gone three and out on 41.7% of their drives in the first half since Week 15 — worst in NFL. 49ers have forced three and outs on 34.8% of opponent drives in the first half since Week 15 — third-best in NFL.
Purdy threw for 332 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions and a passer rating of 131.5 , he also had four carries for 16 yards and a TD and became the first rookie QB in NFL history with 4 TD's in a postseason game. However, he appeared nervous and missed a few open receivers in the first half and the Niners coaching staff had to lessen the burden on him by running on more plays and that helped the youngster settle. I cannot say the concerns about him have gone, which seems a little churlish given his stats across 60 minutes, but they have eased ( a lot) and the Niners tick all the other boxes and then some. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said that Purdy was not nervous early, just "too pumped" .
The two teams met in the postseason last year in Dallas, with the Niners winning 23-17, but it was 23-7 at the end of the third quarter and basically SF took their foot off the gas and allowed the Cowboys to make the scoreline look more respectable. SF bossed the game on the ground and have a better rushing offense now , #1 QB Jimmy Garoppolo was pretty poor that day, but they still eased home and look stronger in all areas coming into the rematch.
2.5 units San Francisco 49ers -4.5 points 2.08 Pinnacle/Vegas Line.
