Thank goodness it's Tuesday !
Nov 22, 2022
Off to a solid start today, we were big on the San Francisco 49ers this morning giving up 9.5 points to the Cardinals and they won 38-10 and my two biggest World Cup bets of the day are below. Argentina -Saudi finished 1-0 at the break and France play Australia this evening,obviously the later game is the only one that will be counted in the FTV results, which are insane enough already! But both serve as good examples of what the daily newsletter service provides..........
FIFA World Cup:
Argentina- Saudi Arabia
One thing we have definitely learned from the World Cup so far is that the Middle East teams are strongly favoured by VAR and most decisions made in that small room are likely to go their way.
I discussed this game and the kick off time in particular in my original notes .............
Not only are we playing in "winter", but with a very limited amount of time to get used to the country, time difference, climate, or to bond, with many players based in Europe set to play their first group stage game 8-9 days after their final domestic game.
The time difference is a real consideration/concern, especially with that quick turnaround for many (not all) national teams and the first two rounds of games scheduled for 13:00, 16:00, 19:00 and 22:00 local time. It will be hot for the lunchtime games and additionally, 13:00 in Qatar, is 10:00 in London, 07:00 in Rio, 05:00 in Quito, 04:00 in Mexico City and 02:00 in LA! A 22:00 kick off time is 04:00 in Tokyo and Seoul and 06:00 in Melbourne! No one is used to playing football at those times of day and it will take many, a game or two to get used to this "circus".
Let's look at one example ........ Argentina - Saudi Arabia play on Tuesday November 22nd @ 13.00 , the hottest part of the day , it is Spring in Buenos Aires, Winter in Europe where almost all of the Argentine squad play and they will virtually all have a league game this upcoming weekend (November 12-13). The game will start at 07:00 Argentine/10:00 UK time. The Saudis are in the same time zone and Riyadh is only 500km from Doha and they began their build up many months ago. As you might expect, no expense has been spared and they resumed what they called the "third phase of preparation" three weeks ago, including playing five friendlies (North Macedonia, Albania, Honduras, Iceland and Panama). There might be a gulf (no pun intended) in class, but all the advantages are with the Saudis and few teams will be as well prepared.
Whether that will be enough, we do not know, but the Saudis won a group containing Japan and Australia ( see below) and are basically at home in this tournament.
We have "milked" Argentina in the last 18 months or so in first half betting and I want to try and incorporate both that and the fact that SA have a lot in their favour today and will surely be at their best early in the game, but with the understanding that the CONMEBOL team are on another level entirely. The advantages that Saudi have, merely serve to balance their h2h inferiority out a little.
Argentina have conceded one first half goal in their last 24 starts! Two 0-0 draws, with 13 games being 1-0 at the break and five 2-0.
Hard to see how this can be anything other than 0-0/1-0/2-0 at half time and somewhere in that group is where any value surely lies.
2 units Argentina to win the first half 1-0 @ 3.29 asian line, small "saver" with 0.75 units 2-0 @ 4.65 .
France- Australia
Consensus seems to be that this is the weakest Australian team for some time, the 2006 golden generation including Cahill, Viduka and Kewell is a distant if fond memory and whilst they have qualified for all four subsequent World Cups, they have not made it out of the group stage and have lost 5 of their last six starts. However, most games were close and tough (like today) and they were level at half time in three , 1-1 in each to Netherlands. Denmark and France (in Russia 2018) , eventually losing that 2-1. That thinking about the level of quality in the Socceroos camp is backed up by their qualifying group ..............
| Pos | Team |
Pld | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Saudi Arabia |
10 | 23 |
| 2 |  Japan |
10 | 22 |
| 3 |  Australia |
10 | 15 |
| 4 |  Oman |
10 | 14 |
| 5 |  China |
10 | 6 |
| 6 |  Vietnam |
10 | 4 |
To finish so far adrift of the top two was a shock, but they won their playoff game with Peru and they are nothing if not scrappers. France should win, but tend to come to the WC and either play teams off the park, or disappoint, with little in between and even en route to winning in Russia four years ago, at half time in their first six games they were 1-1/ 1-0/0-0/1-1/1-0/0-0 and that is very much their modus operandi, to play themselves into games. That is backed up by the fact they have played nine competitive games in the last 13 months and scored in the first half in just one of those! That was against #113 ranked Kazakhstan. The Aussies have conceded one first half goal in 11 games and will put huge energy into frustrating the French early.
2 units Half Time draw 2.64 asian line.
Good luck!
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