I have six previews for subscribers today, three football, one tennis (ROI + 27.64% from 71 bets over the last 13 month) and two NFL (ROI +26.88% from 51 bets over the last 13 months) selections.

 

France Ligue 2:
 

The goals flowed in Ligue 2 last week, six of the seven fixtures went "over" at an average of 3.57, the last round of games pushed the mean for the season up to 2.51, which is way up on last, or any recent season at the same stage. Through 19 rounds, goals averaged 2.14 in 2010/11, 2.24 in 11/12, 2.34 last season and now 2.51, we have spoken of this before, games are far more open nowadays and teams no longer go looking to shut up shop on the road. Last season the three promoted clubs averaged just shy of ten wins each,a decade ago it was five. Football is an entertainment business and Ligue 2 have belatedly caught on to that fact. my feeling remains that the oddsmakers have not.

Nimes-Auxerre
 

We have now reached the half way stage in Ligue 2 and several teams will be looking to replicate their strong finishes to last season and we will be looking at one or two of these over the coming weeks, starting with Nimes today. Last season they collected 33 points over the second half of the campaign, only three of those came over the final four games, once their promotion chance had gone, but from January through to the end of April they were as strong as anyone and playing promotion level football. I suspect this will have been drummed into them over the Christmas break and by their new coach and they could hardly have got off to be a better start last week, when we discussed them ahead of their 3-1 win at Laval .... Hard not to see Nimes getting some joy offensively ,they are battling for survival, four points from safety and this is a game they dare not lose. New coach Rene Marsiglia is looking to resurrect his career domestically after returning from the UAE, he knows how to keep a club up, after saving Nice in 2012 and looks a good appointment. He will be buoyed by Vincent Gragnic (10-2-2) being passed fit to join the squad. I take the new coach effect to work and a hard earned point or better for the visitors, who have lost just once in six visits here and kept a cleansheet in 3 of the last 4.
 

Those three points were not enough to take them out of the drop zone, but three more this evening probably will and then they could start to look upwards. Hosts get Mouritala Ogunbiyi and Romain Sartre back today, two of their more experienced players and look as strong as at any time this season, with that confidence building win behind them and a highly motivated coach looking to re-establish himself, I strongly favour them to beat the poor travelling visitors.
 

We spoke about Auxerre's road problems ahead of their trip to Le Havre just before christmas, when they lost 2-0 ....They (Auxerre)  lost that 3-0 (at Metz)and are simply not very good on the road, strong at home (6-3-0), they lose their way as soon as they get on the team bus and "boast" a 0-3-5 away record, with just three goals scored. They arrive here on the back of a 1-0 defeat at Nantes in the cup in midweek, so will certainly not be as fresh as Le Havre who have not played since last friday when they recorded a confidence boosting with at Troyes, that was 7 points in three and they have finally got some momentum and they are one team who would surely like to postpone the break for a week or two.Still no Sorin or Segbefia for the visitors, also missing are left back Marco Ramos (9-0-0..... Auxerre have conceded 10 goals in the four away starts he has missed), right back Eric Marester (15-0-0) and striker Lynel Kitambala (12-1-0 ... on loan from St Etienne). Weaker on both flanks and Le Bihan, Bonnet and Mahrez for HAC will be salivating at the prospect of this one and pushing each other out of the way in the rush to the manager's office to state their case for inclusion.
 

The visitors remain without Sorin, Segbefia, Ramos, Marester and Kitambala and tonight top scorer Paul-Georges Ntep (17-7-1) also misses out. Home win. 1.75 units Nimes -0.5 ball 2.08 asian line/ibramarket... there is a little 2.10-2.20 around.

 

Nîmes : Merville, Michel - Sartre, Koura, Cordoval, Poulain, Parpeix, Robail, Hsissane, Nouri, Gragnic, Bouby, Benmeziane, Cissokho, Ogounbiyi, Kovacevic.

Auxerre : Léon, Lembet - Marester, A.Coulibaly (cap), Boly, Castelletto, Ngando, Aït Ben Idir, Monconduit, Sawadogo, Kitambala, Sammaritano, Ndong, Viale, Lefebvre, Haller.

 

Good Luck.