The visitors hold an 11 point lead over the home side through the 33 rounds to date, but it was 18 after just 12 games following a nightmare start from Reims and they have been the better of these two teams subsequently. Reims have actually played at top 6-7 level across those subsequent 21 games. Marseille have overachieved all season in terms of results compared to stats and were posting some awful numbers, especially offensively, right up to Christmas . Given their poor statistical start and underlying numbers , they have done well to hold on to 6th, but are well off top 4 pace and look inferior to the teams around them. However, they have won 4/6 (3 wins were against bottom 6 opponents) and have a European spot to play for.

 

However, Reims are unbeaten in 9 and have lost just 2/19 since mid December, one defeat coming narrowly to leaders Lille where they conceded a 92nd minute winner. That was just the second time in 18 starts that they have conceded more than a single goal , they have drawn a LOT of games (8/11) but are super tough to beat and have built a huge defensive platform from which they can continue to thrive in the future. They had the 9th biggest budget this season, a huge 50% increase on 19-20 and as we have already discussed, they have played at beyond that level for more than half the season. Reims were a giant of French football in the 50's and after many years in the wilderness are keen to re-establish themselves and have a stated aim to become a permanent top 5 fixture by 2024.

 

Marseille have been increasingly poor on their travels and after winning five of their first six away starts, they are winless in their last 10 (0-5-5) with just a single clean sheet. That will not be helped in that regard by the absence of suspended CB Duje Caleta-Car, they are 0-1-2 with a 1-5 goal difference in the three away games he has missed and they also conceded two at home to lowly Lorient last week when he was missing .

 

This does have a very drawish look about it and Reims have drawn a Ligue 1 high 10/16 second halves and Marseille 8/16 on the road, so a good chance that if this is tight early, that it settles into a pattern and plays out accordingly. Looking at the table and remaining fixtures, with Lens having to play the top 3 in their final four games, it seems like a draw has value for the visitors and I suspect that OM will arrive with a safety first/dare not lose approach.