Thursday subscriber newsletter .............
La Liga: Eibar- Atlético Madrid
What a season this is turning out to be for Atlético, they are taking full advantage of the troubles at Real Madrid and Barcelona and hold a four point lead at the top of the table, with this, one of two games in hand. They have seven win-able games upcoming before the restart of Champions League action and they could go a long way towards securing just a second title in 25 years with a continued ruthless approach over the next month. The board are desperately trying to tie Diego Simeone down with a contract extension after it was long felt this would be his final season at the club . They are playing expansive football currently and they tried this more attacking approach early last season, but it didn't quite produce the dividends expected, this time it feels like they have the correct personnel and the signing of Luis Suarez also sent out the right message and the team has played higher up the pitch and a much "shorter" game. Simeone will not admit as much, but this feels like a plan two years in the making and the depth that the club has assembled makes them a very big player and capable of pushing for the La Liga/ Champions League double. They had circa £300m worth of talent on the bench last week for the 2-0 win over Sevilla, including Felix, Niguez and Lodi and this is a club with the potential to grow week on week between now and May. They play Chelsea in the CL round of 16 and the Blues look out classed on current form and are going to have to find some rapid improvement to progress.
Atlético have been in five European finals in the last 12 season, winning all three in the Europa League, losing both (unluckily) to Real Madrid (of all teams) in the Champions League, the first of which was in 2013-14, the only other season in recent memory that they won La Liga and it is that team that all Atléti sides of the future will be compared to, but this current squad looks better, with more depth and different ways to play and I think big lessons were learned from last season. So many of the big teams look to have regressed and/or are struggling with the short off season and condensed 20-21 campaign, but it feels like it has played into the hands of Atletico and odds of 19.0 to win the Champions League feel too big.
Eibar have won just 1/9 at home and have conceded 8 goals in their last 3 starts, two of which came versus lower league opposition. They have traditionally struggled big time against the giants of Spanish football and had lost five in a row at home to Atleti scoring just one goal in the process, before a 2-0 win in this fixture last season. That game was almost exactly a year ago (368 days) and I doubt it has been forgotten by Atletico and certainly not Simeone, they had 3 of the 4 BC's that day and were wasteful. Tonight Atletico must do without Kieran Trippier and Koke, who are both suspended but will otherwise line up as strong as possible and look to build on the performance against Sevilla.
Some crazy stats for Eibar, they have a 15-18 goal difference, but are 7-0 (scored-conceded) between the 46th- 60th minute, so are clearly making some good half time adjustments, but they do not last ! They have also conceded 75% of all home goals in the opening 45 minutes and Atletico have won their last four away starts to bottom half of the table teams, leading 1-0 at half time in three.
Not a great day to get overly involved, but best I can suggest is Liverpool HT draw and Atletico to lead 1-0 at the break.
1 unit Liverpool- Burney half time draw 2.99 asian line/Sportmarket.
1 unit Atletico Madrid -0.5 ball half time betting 2.59 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good luck !