Where have all the goals come from ?
Jan 08, 2021
Taken from Thursday's subscriber newsletter:
I wanted to say a few words about Serie A and expand a little upon something I touched upon recently and that is the number of games which have seen both teams scoring. It is on the rise and has been for several seasons and shows little sign of abating.
The top flight has seen a steady increase in goals , up just about 0.5 per game since 2017-18, at around that time (three years ago) I recall talking about being a little bored with Serie A football and it lacking any joy and I doubt I was alone in that thinking and it helps no one, not clubs, supporters, television companies and, the sport, all sport, is in the entertainment business. Therefore, I do not think the increase which has been long term and sustained is a coincidence or statistical blip, but more likely a concerted effort from all to provide more offensive football, or entertainment, if you prefer.
Also, it is very difficult to be successful in modern football with a negative approach or mindset, even if success for a particular club might only be survival, it can be (more easily) achieved without the need to "park the bus" game after game.
Of course, even the most casual viewer of Italian football knows that goals are on the increase and total markets reflect this, but I am not sure, in fact, I am rather certain that BTS markets do not. Let's take a look at how the last three seasons have played out...........
2017-18 both teams scored in 49.5% of games.
2018-19 both teams scored in 53.4% of games.
2019-20 both teams scored in 62.1% of games.
2020-21 to date..... both teams have scored in 64.15% of games.
If this season stays on track, it will mean that 56 more games will see both teams score than in the 2017-18 season, that is an additional 1.473 games per round !
This season, through 159 games both teams have scored in 102, 33 were draws , 69 produced a winner, 57 games saw at least one team fail to score (10 draws , 26 home wins and 21 aways) .
That gives us odds of a shade over 2.79 for one + team to score nil and 1.56 for BTS (most games are priced at odds above this...........9/10 games taking place this coming weekend certainly are, many significantly so).
BTS along with a draw comes in at 4.82 and BTS along with one of the two teams to win @ 2.30.
That is every game played of course and are numbers in a 100% (no profit margin book), bettors can be more selective and are unlikely to bet all games, but with odds for even heavily favoured teams to win with BTS usually priced in the 2.75-5.00 bracket and beyond, it is easy to make a case for good and on occasion, big value in these markets and the same applies to almost all quotes involving BTS.
Good luck !
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