Burnley made a terrible start to their campaign, but have improved dramatically over their last six starts , collecting 9 points and losing only to Manchester City. They actually lost that 5-0 but that is favoured scoreline against an opponent they seem to be unable not just to beat , lots of teams have issues with City, but to even stay competitive against for 10 minutes and it was the second 5-0 Premier league loss to the Manchester side post lockdown. The upturn in fortune coincided with the return to the Clarets side of CB Ben Mee who is absolutely vital to how they play and a team leader. In Mee's last 14 starts which were not against City, Burnley are unbeaten , with an 8-6-0 record and an incredibly low four goals conceded ! Burnley are not the same team when Mee plays, or perhaps it is more accurate to say that they are not the same in his absence, but right now they are playing well and their old disciplined and very difficult to score against selves.

 

I am surprised that Mee and fellow CB James Tarkowski do not score more goals , the latter is a player I know well from his time at Brentford where he was always a big threat from set pieces and that is important today, or could be as Wolves have given up the third most top flight goals from set plays. Tarkowski, or "Jug Ears" as he is un-affectionately known at Brentford after behaving poorly to orchestrate a move away from the Bees, has not scored this season, but has had 7 attempts on goal in his 10 PL starts this season.  One or both of the central defenders feel like they are due a goal and it is easy to suspect it could come today , or in Burnley's next start which is against Leeds who have given up the most goals from set pieces.

 

Wolves feel if not fully in transition, a team that has lost so much more than two players with the transfer of Diogo Jota and frightening injury to Raul Jimenez and it feels like a piece of the heart of the team has been ripped out. The duo contributed 24 goals and 7 assists last season, Matt Doherty who has also left had 4 of each too and that is a lot of goal threat they have lost. All five non defensive players in the last start were aged 25 or less, the front two 18 and 20 and as good as they are, or will be, that is not a lot of experience to call upon when things are not going well. Head coach Nuno Espirito Santo has been tinkering with formation changes and yes, I have changed my mind, they do feel a little in transition. One thing that has not really changed is Wolves habit of falling out of the blocks and they have been leading at the break in just 10 of 51 starts since the start of the 2019-20 season, trailing in 21 and a good chance today that Burnley can get a toehold in this game early doors.

 

Regardless of the result today I can at least give thanks that my eldest daughter is not at home and I will not have to listen to her Sean Dyche impersonation every single time he appears on the screen !

 

 

 

 

 

I can at least write that those Steelers issues I have been talking about recently have finally come home to roost and "The Emperor's New Clothes" have fallen off the broad shoulders of Big Ben Roethlisberger and the running game of Pittsburgh. After starting the season 11-0 they have lost back to back games to Washington and Buffalo and ahead of the latter my notes included ............

 

 

The Steelers have put up just 51 points in their last three starts, averaging 12.8 points per game less than in their opening 10 games and that is a big drop off. I am not saying that Pittsburgh is a bad team, you do not post 11 wins in the NFL unless you are doing a lot right, but they have only faced 5 winning teams and have ridden their luck at times. They were not a "great" 11-0 team and are certainly not an above average 11-2 one ! They have been dropping a lot of catchable balls lately too and maybe we are just seeing a levelling off of performances.

 

However, they should return to winning ways today against the Bengals who are 2-10-1 and lost the reverse fixture at Heinz Field five weeks ago 36-10. The Steelers still had no ground game in that and Cincy were 0-13 on third down which is close to impossible , so I do expect this to be closer, but when we are talking about 26 points that is not saying much. But just three regular season games to go and it is all about posting the win and not collecting any more injuries ahead of the post season rather than putting teams to the sword and the injuries to Haden/Spillane/Dupree ( see above) will have served as a wake up call in that regard. Also, a divisional matchup is where Cincy should want to show their best and doubly so in a nationally televised game. The Steelers have dominated this series and won the last 11 meetings and 14 /15, including the last 7 in Cincy (but five of those wins were by 7 points or less). Further, no team has won both meetings in a single season by 10 + points since 2011.

 

There is bad news in that the Bengals will have a third string quarterback, Ryan Finley, at the helm, but the Steelers have a banged up offensive line to offset that somewhat . This will only be Finley's fourth ever start in the NFL, but one of those was a 16-10 loss to the Steelers in Week 12 last year, he threw a touchdown pass, just shy of 200 yards and importantly did not turn the ball over, so about as good as we could hope and that, or similar, would give them a good chance tonight of keeping this to within two touchdowns.

 

 

 

 

Good luck !