Ligue 1: statistically .................

Feb 21, 2020

Ligue 1 : 25 rounds played. Teams are shown in league table order.

Inside the box stats:

*PSG +149 (72-42) 79-46

Marseille +42 (72-24) 27-32

*Rennes -13 (48-38) 45-40

Lille +24 (49-45) 42-41

*Monaco +11 (61-45) 53-65

Montpellier +9 (49-46)35-47

Strasbourg +30 (46-39) 41-33

*Reims +47 (50-27) 42-38

Nice -48 (49-40) 41-64

Bordeaux -31 (37-39) 32-39

Lyon +38 (39-35) 38-27

Nantes -1 (43-39) 34-48

Brest -72 (38-72) 50-44

Angers +37 (43-30) 42-38

Metz -53 (35-44) 34-50

St Etienne -3 (36-51) 46-32

*Nimes -12 (33-68) 54-35

Dijon -24 (45-43) 42-40

*Amiens -83 (22-67) 29-48

Toulouse -47 (32-68) 47-46

Net ITB numbers for the season directly alongside each team, figures at the end of each line in blue type are ITB numbers (created-conceded) for the last six games (* seven games for the six teams marked with an asterisk), in brackets are the same for the six games preceding those .

The ITB top 9 would look like ........

PSG +149

Reims +47

Marseille +42

Lyon +38

Angers +37

Strasbourg +30

Lille +24

ASM +11

Montpellier +9

all other teams are on minus numbers.

XP sees Ligue 1 (points rounded up or down) as.......

PSG 60 pts

Lille 40

Lyon 39

Marseille 39

Monaco 38

Montpellier 36

Reims 36

Strasbourg 35

Angers 34

Rennes 34

Bordeaux 33

Nantes 33

Nice 32

St Etienne 30

Nîmes 30

Dijon 29

Amiens 29

Brest 27

Metz 27

Toulouse 26

There is so much I want to say about the above numbers, some of which is obvious, but I will leave it for later in the week.

But what perhaps I should say about XP league tables and I usually do make these comments, is that I have some issues about how the "draw" is calculated and that in the cold light of day, and this is true of any "table", it gives too little (as in no) regard to recent form and I am going to add some adjustment for this next season for ITB numbers, but do not want to do that two thirds into this campaign.

I have heard people say that h2h results from last season have no bearing, but they happily give six points won in August the same value as six won this month and that "ain't right" !

Anyway, XP suggest that Toulouse should have an extra 13 pts, Amiens 7.5, Lyon 5 and Angers an additional 4.

Biggest overachievers according to XP are Marseille with an extra 13.5 points, followed by Rennes 7, Brest 6 and Nice 4.

Stats are great, I love them, we just have to be careful how we use them and they should only ever be a starting point.

Glossary:

ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .

XG= expected goals.

XGF= expected goals for.

XGA = expected goals against.

XGD = expected goal difference.

XP = expected points.

BC = big scoring chance.

I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.

Good Luck.