3rd round replays this week, last six seasons have seen 47 replays at this stage, resulting in 24 home wins (51.06%, 11 draws (23.4%)  and 12 aways (25.54%), with 22 games going "under" 2.5 goals and 25 "over" (53.19%), 16 produced 4+ goals (34.04%) and 10 five or more (21.28%) and all those "over" numbers are way above what we would see in League games, or expect from cup games.

 

0 goals =3 games

1 goal =7

2 goals  = 12

3 goals =9

4 goals =6

5 goals = 8

6 goals =1

7 goals =1

 

Not sure that we need to try to explain the possible reasons why the goals have flowed, but if pressed, I suspect that teams are tired after the very busy holiday campaign and then errors become more likely and it will also be harder for a lower level team to up their game a second time, even if at home in the return and across all games, 21 wins have come by two or more goals.

 

It is the goal stats which mainly interest me today and if you like any of these to go "over", it is surely worthwhile also looking at the 4.5 goal plus line too.

 

 

 

Good Luck.