Championship betting tip: Bristol City- Millwall
Dec 10, 2019
Championship: Bristol City- Millwall
Bristol City won at Fulham on Saturday ahead of which I spoke about them having overachieved in terms of performance to results all season, but did also raise some question marks over Fulham's recent stats .
Bristol City's numbers are poor and have been all season , they have ridden their luck time and time again and whenever I have seen them they have been disappointing, they have double red alongside their name and backing them , at least at lowish odds, should carry a wealth warning !
Huddersfield have created an average of just 5.05 attempts ITB this season which is way too low, they have 96 total, next lowest is 117, Leeds are the first team to breakthrough the 200 mark, with 202. In terms of those allowed, Bees are #1 on 86/ #2 Leeds 88/ #3 Stoke 104 and everyone else is 118 + ,bottom eight in this category are Luton 189/ Charlton 180/ Swansea 179/ Middlesbrough 177/ Barnsley 175/Wigan 173/ Bristol City 172 / 172 Huddersfield . Sorry to bang on about City but they have allowed attempts at the same rate as Wigan and Huddersfield and created them at the same level as Millwall (who are much better defensively).
I haven't given Bristol City a hard time for a couple of paragraphs , so how about this one, the current top 10 in the league all feature in the top 10 for second half results, with one exception, no prizes for guessing !
City took the lead at Craven Cottage in the first half (when they are at their best ,see weekend FH/SH stats)and then got a second after the break, but Fulham pulled one back and had a clear penalty denied and hit the woodwork and should have got something from that and sooner or later City will hit a wall, as they have done in each of their last three campaigns, as nothing suggests they have improved.
Millwall draw a lot of games, but are on a five game unbeaten run and have lost just 1/8 since Gary Rowett (pictured), who always makes his teams tough to break down, took charge. The Lions have also trailed at half time just once in 13 starts, which nullifies those fast City starts to some degree and Wall have a +60 ITB differential over the home side and are +11 XP. City have conceded 28 goals, the second most outside the bottom 5 and XGA suggests that should be 3-4 more !
2 units Millwall level ball 2.51 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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