France: Ligue 2 betting tip: Grenoble - Beziers
Apr 26, 2019
France: Ligue 2: Grenoble - Beziers
I have not suddenly become a Beziers "fan" but they have upped their commitment and offensive bravery in recent starts and ahead of a midweek home game with Clermont I wrote ............
Clermont are 9th, they have no relegation concerns, but neither can they have realistic top 5 aspirations either, they are 9 points adrift, with six "better" teams, at least five points ahead of them, hunting three spots. They have not won in four starts and to be honest, to finish mid table again with a tiny budget and coming from an area where Rugby reigns supreme, is a great achievement and they continually overperform in doing so. Beziers have looked the worst team in L2 for a while, but gave themselves a lifeline with an amazing 6-5 win at wildly inconsistent Valenciennes on Friday, VAFC took a surprise point away to 4th placed Paris FC last night in a 0-0 draw, which boosts the formline, but also highlights that up and down nature of Valenciennes. Beziers have collected 19 of 11 points on the road and won just once as host ( 8 draws) but they are within three points of safety now and must realise that they can score goals at this level and that draws will no longer help them much, they probably need to find three wins to survive, of their three remaining home games, this is the "easiest" and surely they will give their all this evening. That they can win along with a clean sheet is very doubtful and Clermont's last three starts away to bottom six teams have all gone "over" the 2.5 line and produced 10 goals. They have traditionally played a little more open style than their current record suggests, especially when there is less to play for, their last 11 starts in 2017-18 saw BTS in 9 , with 8 going over and their last ten starts the season before, averaged 3.1 goals pg. Goals today, but also some value in the home win.
There were 33 attempts on goal, 20 from inside the penalty area, but no breakthrough until the 84th minute when Beziers took the lead, only to concede an equaliser three minutes later and that is how the game ended. The point did not help Beziers much, but I doubt they will be sitting back long today and they look overpriced to win at Grenoble, whom they were promoted with 12 months ago. I have spoken about the host's issues and home form several times and we have done well opposing them as home team and ahead of a visit from Orleans early this month when they lost 4-0 my notes included ...........
They travel to Grenoble who are three points worse off and I have spoken about their form falling off several times in recent months. Ahead of a home game with Lorient in February my notes included .......... Like Beziers below, Grenoble has also hit the buffers following a very good start to life at the higher level and, after collecting 27 points from their first 15 games, they have just 8 from 8 and their only win in 11 starts in league and cup since mid November was against the aforementioned Beziers and they only scored 6 goals in the other 10 outings. They have not won in five home starts and failed to score in 5 of 13 as host, registering more than a single goal only twice and it is very difficult for them to win with those numbers and even when playing well, their game looked far better suited to road games when the onus was not on them to make the running. Grenoble do have 35 points on board, so could still find their way into the post season spots I suppose, but it is quite a while since we saw that level of form from them and it is far more likely that their points tally will allow them to coast and soon start building and planning for 2019-20.
They have taken 7 points from 7 starts since I wrote that, two home wins in the sequence, but against bottom 3 teams and how they beat Nancy 1-0 will just have to remain one of life's great mysteries ! This is a game Orleans should look to win, they have the firepower to do so and the home side still look vulnerable.
After shipping the four goals there, they have played one subsequent home game, losing that 2-0 also. They did get a point at Metz in midweek, putting in more effort than I expected after falling behind early, that will have taken quite a bit out of them and they have played Saturday-Tuesday- Friday which is very unusual for anyone in Ligue 2 and doubly so for a promoted team. Add in the 12 hour round trip in midweek and I think we have a bet !
1.75 units Beziers level ball 3.05 asian line/Sportmarket.
Grenoble : Camara, Salles – Bengriba, Abou Demba, Dady Ngoy, Mombris, Gibaud – Sanusi, M’Changama, Pambou, Grange, Elogo, Coulibaly – Sotoca, Belvito, Boussaha, Brun, Chergui.
Béziers : Viot, Novaes – Rherras, Mostefa, Gbegnon, Atassi, Sidibé, Taillan, Savané – Diakota, Banda, Bertrand, Etou, Aabid – Rabillard, Kanté, Ramalingom, Boujamaa.
Good luck.
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