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football betting tips -

 

Friday April 5th
 
 
There will be a 14.00 UK time follow up newsletter today looking at tomorrow's J-League fixtures.
 
 
Ligue 2:
 
 
Grenoble- Orleans
 
 
Red Star- Stade Brestois 29
 
 
A lot of interconnected notes on the teams being discussed in Ligue 2 today, first up , last weekend I looked at Orleans -Red Star.
 
Immediately before the international break, when Valenciennes hosted Orleans  my notes included ...............
 
Valenciennes were involved in that crazy game at Brest last Friday where they won 5-2 , that's 9 goals in two starts for them, 3+ in 3/4 games and, whilst they are wildly inconsistent, they are in a bit of a purple patch and their games are averaging 3.03 goals per game all season, which is 0.85 above the league mean. They have scored most apart from the top two, whilst conceded a L2 high. Orleans have scored 5th most, conceded 4th highest and goals look on the cards today with two fairly relaxed, free scoring teams.Hosts now look safe from relegation concerns and Orleans will gamble for three points , as they look to bridge that six point gap to the top 5. Visitors have scored 9 in their last 4, conceded in three and  2 of the last 4 h2h meetings have produced 4+ goals.
 
Weather is going to be wet and windy,but I don't see that as enough to stope a mini goal fest.
 
Orleans won that 4-1, they created 8 big chances, missed five (not sure I have seen that many ever from a road team in Ligue 2), hitting the woodwork twice, it was pretty impressive, but they did also give up a lot of scoring opportunities themselves, just not like those prime ones they themselves created. The points took them up to 7th and they are now just 4 adrift of the playoff spots. No point in them looking for anything other than all three today and they will fancy their chances against Red Star who are holding up the rest of Ligue 2, with only Valenciennes having conceded more goals and having won just 3/19 starts, 5 all season. Orleans won the reverse fixture 4-0  (3 up inside 35 minutes) and the last h2h meeting here in Orleans by the same scoreline (two up in little over half and hour). That was odd as it also came next time out (2017) after a trip to Valenciennes which they lost 4-0, now they are in much better shape and have just put four past that same opponent.
 
One goal will blow this game open, Red Star have to gamble, especially if they trail and they have been a combined 5-0 down inside 37 minutes in the last two h2h games and the visitors have conceded 32 goals in the first hour of games which is more than 11 teams have given up in all 90+ minutes. Hosts are missing a couple of players today, but are still much stronger than Red Star and we are, any way,  at that stage of the campaign where motivation and belief takes over from team news.
 
That finished 2-2, Orleans will have felt disappointed by the result, especially as that was the score with 30 minutes remaining when the visitors were reduced to 10 men, but the overall performance was ok, they created a lot of chances ( 12 inside the box, missing two big opportunities and hitting the woodwork) and the two Red Star front men , Abdeldjelil and Faucher were stand out performers. Orleans are 7th , 4 points adrift of 5th and 6th and know that the six teams above them are all bigger in terms of budget and are not likely to fade much, so need to win to stay in touch . Only one of the top 6 is actually at home this weekend, all have tricky looking fixtures, as do Orleans on paper, but this is a good, maybe final chance (unless successful) to make up some of that ground.
 
They travel to Grenoble who are three points worse off and I have spoken about their form falling off several times in recent months. Ahead of a home game with Lorient in February my notes included .......... Like Beziers below, Grenoble has also hit the buffers following a very good start to life at the higher level and, after collecting 27 points from their first 15 games, they have just 8 from 8 and their only win in 11 starts in league and cup since mid November was against the aforementioned Beziers and they only scored 6 goals in the other 10 outings. They have not won in five home starts and failed to score in 5 of 13 as host, registering more than a single goal only twice and it is very difficult for them to win with those numbers and even when playing well, their game looked far better suited to road games when the onus was not on them to make the running. Grenoble do have 35 points on board, so could still find their way into the post season spots I suppose, but it is quite a while since we saw that level of form from them and it is far more likely that their points tally will allow them to coast and soon start building and planning for 2019-20.
 
They have taken 7 points from 7 starts since I wrote that, two home wins in the sequence, but against bottom 3 teams and how they beat Nancy 1-0 will just have to remain one of life's great mysteries ! This is a game Orleans should look to win, they have the firepower to do so and the home side still look vulnerable.
 
 
Red Star are 7 points from safety, 6 adrift of the relegation playoff spot, they will have to try and find three points today, despite second placed Brest being the visitor. The away team have shown signs of wobbling and that awesome run of their's on the road, which we spent much of early season discussing, has turned into a rash of score draws, they have conceded 8 in 4 games and if the Red Star front pair keep up their level from last week, their might be a goal, possibly two, in this for the host. Brest's lead over PFC in third is now down to 3 points, their lowest in 4 months and they need to start winning again, they have 3/4 on the road starting today, this is the easiest by far, so two teams looking for the win,a strong visitor who are more vulnerable at the back just now and a home side who will have to gamble . Goals !
 
 
Edit: It looks like talented Brest head coach Jean-Marc Furlan is leaving at the end of this season, regardless of whether his team are promoted or not. I never like this kind of talk being leaked , it almost always seems to end in tears sooner than it should !
 
 
1.75 units Orleans level ball 2.32 asian line/Sportmarket.
 
 
2 units Red Star - Brest "over" 2.5 goals 2.36 asian line/Sportmarket.
 
 

Grenoble : Maubleu, Camara – Bengriba, Dady Ngoy, Spano Rahou, Mombris, Gibaud – Sanusi, M’Changama, El Jadeyaoui, Jigauri, Pambou, Coulibaly – Sotoca, Belvito, Boussaha, Grange, Elogo.

 

Orléans : Renault, Gallon – Cambon, Mutombo, Monfray, D’Arpino, Perrin, Cissokho, Le Tallec, Traoré, Avounou, Pinaud, Demoncy, El Khoumisti, Benkaïd, Ephestion, Lopy, Talal.

 

 

Red Star FC : Rénot, Bagayoko, Derrien, Tomas, Fontaine Sy, Mfulu, Edjouma, Sao, A. Diallo, Faucher, Abdeldjelil, Charruau, Kiki, Fontaine, Tomas, Lefebvre, Chantôme, Lapoussin, D. Camara.

 

Brest : Larsonneur, Léon, Bernard, Belaud, Castelletto, Weber, Chardonnet, Henry, Belkebla, Diallo, Pi, Ayasse, Battocchio, Court, N’Goma, Autret, Charbonnier, Mayi.

 
Valenciennes- Troyes
 
 
Valenciennes are discussed early in the above Orleans notes. VAFC are consistently inconsistent and veer wildly between awful and quite good ! However, they continue to score, create and also give away chances, with a 15-9 goal difference in their last 6 starts, but they rode their luck big time to only concede 9. They are safe now on 37 points and with 9 teams below them in the table, with anyone else you would say that makes them ideal road opposition for a team like Troyes, who have big top 5 ambitions, but when that team is VAFC, you can never be entirely sure. Having said that, at home after a road win is as good a time as any for them to trip up and after the last six away wins, next game has seen 5 produce 4+ goals and end in two big home defeats.
 
Troyes have been popular in clubgowi notes this season and kindly beat Grenoble last weekend ...........
 
Troyes are very tough to score against and have given up just 4 goals in 9 starts, none at all in three and won the reverse fixture 2-0. They are now just 2 points off top 5, 9 off the automatic spots with 27 points still to play for, they have a good run of fixtures ahead, next three starts coming against teams with an average league placing of 12.3 and they have still to face 5 of the bottom 9 and they could still have a say in top 2-3.
 
Prior to a trip to Niort last month I wrote ..........
 
================================================================================================
 
Lots of notes on Troyes and in November, I looked at how the season had played out for them to that point, referencing a couple of my earlier posts.......
 
 
I bet Troyes wish they could go back and play their first six games over, the first was alright, a 1-0 win at Ajaccio ahead of which I spoke about the make up of their squad ...........
 
They start at home to relegated Troyes, who know how to get out of this division, with three promotions to Ligue 1 in the last seven seasons, relegated teams usually lose a few players and need a period of adjustment, the former has happened, but the latter is not the case with such massive L2 experience at the club and they have spent wisely bringing in even more senior players and I doubt there is a club with more knowledhe of this level amongst their ranks. They have added or bought back to the club Raveloson, Kashi, Touzghar, Salmier, Letellier and Berthomier amongst others, they have close to 500 L2 starts between them and promotions out of this league with five different teams, Touzghar and Berthomier 60 L2 goals. They have also made the transfer of Korean international striker Hyun-jun Suk permanent from Porto for a huge fee in French second tier terms. Cordoval, Niane (L2 top scorer with 23 goals two seasons ago), Darbion, Ben Saada and Benjamin Nivet who made his debut when Methuselah was still going to school in short trousers, have some 1,000 (!) L2 starts total, plus about 500 at the higher level and I do not think I have ever seen so much experience and know how at this level, not even close.
 
But they lost 5 in a row after that ! Subsequently they are 5-1-1 and now up to 9th and "only" 9 points behind the leaders, given that they looked in trouble and out of promotion contention just six games into the campaign, that is a massive turnaround. They have averaged 2.0 goals per game over those seven starts, only Brest have scored more  (Gazelec just 0.57 pg).
 
I updated a few weeks back with .......
 
However, I am mindful of that run in 2014-15 when Troyes won 24 games and ran away with the title and this is a club with big potential and in a false position in the table.
 
The hosts have further added to their squad with right sided midfielder Vincent Marcel from Nice, defensive midfielder Christopher Martins Pereira from Lyon and young Bryan Mbeumo has been upgraded from the B team to play on the opposite flank to Marcel and has 3 goals and two assists in his last three starts. Alongside all that huge experience outlined in early season, that looks an awful lot of talent and a nice mix. The win over Chateauroux was very impressive, keeper Mamadou Samassa is a man mountain and in a rich vein of form right now, Mbeumo (is he really only 19yo) and Kevin Fortune were running riot up top and causing problems on every attack and Chat are decent and a good yardstick.
 
Incredibly, their six outfield players on the bench last week in a 4-2 win over Valenciennes have 882 Ligue 2 , 593 Ligue 1 apperances betweem them and that is massive experience and know how to be able to call upon late in games, either to see matches out, or salvage/claim a result.
 
Then, immediately before the Christmas break  .......
 
They are now 8th , three points adrift of third and if we took away that five match spell ( 2nd-6th starts..........see above), they have otherwise averaged over 2.23 points pg and over the full 18 games that would be enough to see them just about on a par with leaders Metz.  Of course, many treams would like to "remove" similarly poor runs from their portfolio, but I do think it highlights the home team's potential. Having said that, even when playing well, I have see periods in games when they have gone off the boil for 15-20 minutes and as strange as it sounds, now they are back on track, I have more concerns/issues with them currently than a few weeks back ! Having said that, they have a great squad for this league with MASSIVE experience and if they can hang in there it will serve them well down the stretch.
 

They have continued a bit hit and miss since, one of the 2019 highlights was a 1-1 draw away to second placed Brest, coming from behind, playing well and creating a good number of chances ,with the host's goal offside. Brest head coach Jean-Marc Furlan said afterwards "Troyes embarrassed us in the second half ". Every time they get on the heels of top 5 they seem to slip up, witness a 1-0 loss at home to Paris FC last week, but they tend to bounce back from a defeat and they are only four points adrift of Lens in 5th and time, I feel,  for head coach Rui Miguel Almeida to open up a little and throw the shackles off, as they have more offensive talent than they have been willing to show at times.

 
================================================================================================
 
They have taken 11 points from five unbeaten subsequent starts, along with progressively better performances and they should win this if they are to be genuine promotion hopefuls. Having allowed just 5 attempts on target in four starts (only one attempt inside the box in 90 minutes on the road in their last outing) it is difficult to see goal shy Grenoble having too much joy this evening.
 
Troyes edged that 2-1 , it is hard to say how good they are, I like the squad, but they rarely win with more than minimal effort it seems. I wonder how many times they have thought about the first 5-6 weeks of the season, when, after winning on opening day, they then lost their next five starts and they have been playing catch up ever since, half points from those games would have seen them 2nd now and the failure to pick up any, has kind of dictated how they have approached every game since, they have played them like dare not lose games and without much freedom. They are 13-7-4 subsequently, with a 35-17 goal difference, one of the very few high scoring games was a 4-2 defeat of Valenciennes in the reverse fixture, it was an illtempered affair and turning point was a red card for VAFC when leading. I think we will see goals again and an away win, three points will take Troyes into top 5 at least for 24 hours and keep them in automatic promotion contention.
 
1.75 units Troyes -0.25 ball 2.37 asian line/Sportmarket.
 
1.5 units "over" 3 goals VAFC-Troyes 2.70 asian line/Sportmarket.
 
 
VAFC: Konaté, Perquis - Aloé, Bong, Ciss, Cuffaut, Dos Santos, Nestor - Masson, Massouema, Mauricio, Ramaré, Robail, Roudet - Ambri, Cabral, Julan, Raspentino, Romil.
 
 
Troyes: Letellier, Samassa - Cordoval, Giraudon, Kouyatté, Obiang, Poaty, Salmier, Tavares - Gonçalves, Martins Pereira, Nivet, Pelé, Raveloson - Fortuné, Mbeumo, Tinhan, Touzghar.
 
 
J-League 1:
 
 
Urawa Reds- Yokohama F. Marinos
 
My preview of Marinos game from last Friday are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off.  That was a second disappointing showing from them and ended in a 0-0 draw, I have read a couple of reports with writers feeling that teams have "learned how to play Yokohama", I think that is a bit simplistic after 3-5 games and that Marinos are more than a one trick pony. I don't think the goals are going to completely dry up after coming up short in two games versus a pair of very deep lying teams who were happy to concede 70% of the ball. Marinos will have to find a way to combat that, it is usally with a goal, they hit the woodwork twice last week, Sagan had just two attempts from inside the box, one on target and if Yokohama had broken through, the visitors attacking intentions would have had to change and I suspect it would have resulted in an easy Marinos win. Anyway, that is for another day, Urawa are "not allowed" to sit back, doubly so as hosts and their supportes will, as always, urge them forward and YFM will get far more space today.
 
This is a fixture the visitors like, Saitama is a short trip for them, supporters will travel in numbers and they have lost just twice in ten visits, also, Marinos are already on that Friday late kick off schedule from last week which is always an advantage of sorts. Urawa have an important Tuesday Champions League game to also distract them and have been struggling for goals as host in JL1, just one in 180 minutes and this is starting to look a little like a repeat of last year (4 goals in first 7 home starts), I do not doubt that CL is early season priority for them. Marinos off level ball.
 
 
1.75 units Yokohama F. Marinos level ball 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.
 
 
Kawasaki Frontale- Cerezo Osaka
 
 
Frontale also play Champions League next midweek, but not until Wednesday and despite that being on the road, the plane trip to Ulsan in South Korea is very short and I suspect the defending JL1 champions will want to make a good fist of their defence and build on a first win of the campaign last week. Cerezo also collected 3 points last weekend, beating a very poor Vegalta Sendai team when my notes included ..........
 
Cerezo Osaka are also toiling and have done so since Yoon Jong-Hwan announced he was leaving as head coach last year in mid season, I never like those announcements, it caused Cerezo to lose their way and they look a pale imitation of the team who thrilled in 2017 with some attacking football , winning two cups and finishing 3rd in their first season back in the top flight. The hangover appears to continue and new head coach Miguel Angel Lotina has not endeared himself to players yet with his too negative set up and they have begged him to go more offensively and I do understand he has listened that has been how they have set up in training over the break. Both are struggling and look weak defensively, there should be chances at both ends .
 
Lotina appeared to have listened and Cerezo were much the better team, but the opposition were limited, however, surely he will again allow the shackles to be loosened today as they are now free rolling here and any points collected a bonus. The two teams are level on six points, but I see a big gulf in class between the two teams this season, with Cerezo very much in an early transition stage. But this should be open and is one of those fixtures which almost always produces goals, last six meetings here have produced 32 (!) goals (5.33 average) and Cerezo enjoy the surroundings, having won on 6/9 visits, that and the CL game is enough to make me swerve the home win, but not the "over".
 
 
1.75 units "over" 3 goals 2.97 asian line/Sportmarket.
 
 
Good Luck.
 
 
Japan: J-league 1: Yokohama F Marinos- Sagan Tosu (written March 29th)
 
 
Yokohama made my notes ahead of their home opener, when they edged past Vegalta Sendai ...............
 
There were two teams I wanted to back last week, Gamba and Marinos, but they met in Osaka and I had to sit that out. I anticipate a very big season for both and Yokohama could hardly have started better win a 3-2 win , but we can begin today with Gamba, they were very big favourites for us in the second half of the season under their new coach and I spoke often about having "our" Gamba back and Tsuneyasu Miyamoto understanding the club and what made it tick. I have reproduced the notes on their home game with Marinos which came late last season below the "good luck" sign off (edit: see March 1st email) and have highlighted a couple of passage today. Gamba won that 2-1 but I was equally as impressed with Yokohama that day, maybe more so as they had over 700 passes v Gamba and no one outpasses them to that degree. Infact, it is rare for Gamba to complete under 500 passes and they were held to 330 that day.
 
Gamba finished the season 9th, just 3 points off 5th and won 9/10 to finish the campaign (losing only to Marinos), collecting 33 of 48 points in the second half of the season.
 
Yokohama were 12th, reached the League Cup final and were top scorers in the league. First season head coach Ange Postecoglou had a rollercoaster year, but there was much to like and the Aussie has the full backing of the board, who, it has to be admitted, took a while to be won over. He impressed with a squad he inherited and has been allowed to overhaul it this off season, getting rid of a LOT of deadwood, promoting some youth and whilst on paper the squad might look weaker, the head coach now has the players to implement his system. Gamba might have got a draw last week, they did hit the woodwork, but Marinos numbers were off the chart !  25 attempts, 10 on target, 15 inside the box, missed 3 big chances and again outpassed Gamba, restricting them to circa 400 , Yokohama were also not caught offside once, which, with all new players (only 3 of 10 outfield players from the first meeting with Gamba, played last week and there were only four interim starts between the two game !) , I find incredible. Coaches in JL1 can be ultra conservative , no one will ever accuse AP of that and he is like a breath of fresh air and it would be good for Japanese football for him and Marinos to succeed.
 
Marinos won their first two starts, then drew with defending champions Kawasaki Frontale (2-2) but lost immediately before the break, 2-0 away to Oita Trinita, I will discuss the victors tomorrow, suffice to say that Yokohama played well box to box, underperformed in both penalty areas , but did create enough to have won most games. Anyway,  I am expecting them to get back to winning ways today ahead of a tough trip to Saitama to play Urawa Reds next week and, versus a limited Sagan Tosu team who have lost 3/4 starts, scoring just a single goal. I opposed them in their first away start (Vissel Kobe ) where my notes included ...........
 
We sided with Sagan several times late last season after making much of their big investment including signing Fernando Torres to try and ( successfully) stay in the top flight. It was not sure how committed he was to the cause and there was a lot of talk over the off season about him leaving the club, he has stayed, but Sagan have some issues and started with an awful 4-0 home defeat to Nagoya , they started poorly last season , winning just once between week 5 and 19 and goals, even after the signing of Torres and Mu Kanazaki, were in very short supply, just 29 in 35 JL-1 starts ( 7 in a combined 36 appearances for the duo). We will know far more after today, but if both play like last week, this can only end one way, add in home field advantage and that "everyone" owner/players/fans and even JL1 need Kobe to succeed, I have to stick with the host.
 
That's just 30 goals in 38 league starts for them, today they will be without suspended centre back Yuji Takahashi (lost all three starts he has sat out in the last 12 months...... all home games), Fernando Torres is carrying a knock and is a doubt and if Marinos are to challenge in 2019, they have to win games like this.

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