France: Ligue 2 betting tip : Nancy- Valenciennes
Mar 29, 2019
France: Ligue 2 : Nancy- Valenciennes
I looked at Valenciennes hosting Orleans immediately before the international break , when my notes included ...............
Valenciennes were involved in that crazy game at Brest last Friday where they won 5-2 , that's 9 goals in two starts for them, 3+ in 3/4 games and, whilst they are wildly inconsistent, they are in a bit of a purple patch and their games are averaging 3.03 goals per game all season, which is 0.85 above the league mean. They have scored most apart from the top two, whilst conceded a L2 high. Orleans have scored 5th most, conceded 4th highest and goals look on the cards today with two fairly relaxed, free scoring teams.Hosts now look safe from relegation concerns and Orleans will gamble for three points , as they look to bridge that six point gap to the top 5. Visitors have scored 9 in their last 4, conceded in three and 2 of the last 4 h2h meetings have produced 4+ goals.
Weather is going to be wet and windy,but I don't see that as enough to stope a mini goal fest.
Orleans won that 4-1, they created 8 big chances, missed five (not sure I have seen that many ever from a road team in Ligue 2), hitting the woodwork twice, it was pretty impressive, but they did also give up a lot of scoring opportunities themselves, just not like those prime ones they themselves created. The points took them up to 7th and they are now just 4 adrift of the playoff spots. No point in them looking for anything other than all three today and they will fancy their chances against Red Star who are holding up the rest of Ligue 2, with only Valenciennes having conceded more goals and having won just 3/19 starts, 5 all season. Orleans won the reverse fixture 4-0 (3 up inside 35 minutes) and the last h2h meeting here in Orleans by the same scoreline (two up in little over half and hour). That was odd as it also came next time out (2017) after a trip to Valenciennes which they lost 4-0, now they are in much better shape and have just put four past that same opponent.
One goal will blow this game open, Red Star have to gamble, especially if they trail and they have been a combined 5-0 down inside 37 minutes in the last two h2h games and the visitors have conceded 32 goals in the first hour of games which is more than 11 teams have given up in all 90+ minutes. Hosts are missing a couple of players today, but are still much stronger than Red Star and we are, any way, at that stage of the campaign where motivation and belief takes over from team news.
Valenciennes go to Nancy who are coming off a loss away to Grenoble where I liked their chances at really big odds, off level ball .............
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Nancy are on fire and I am pleased I spotted that upturn early and they have landed two nice bets for us, ahead of a 3-2 defeat of highflying Lorient last week I wrote .............
Step up in quality of opponent for Nancy but they are on the up , look a different team from early season and buoyed by a fine 4-0 win at Sochaux last Friday ahead of which my notes included ...........
Nancy are much improved and have won their last two, away to Le Havre (2-0) and home to Gazelec (3-1), those points have taken them to within two of Sochaux and the visitors could move out of the bottom 3 for the first time this season and that seemed highly unlikely when they lost their first seven starts without scoring a single goal !
Nancy are a big club by Ligue 2 standards, have spent 5 of their last 10 campiagns in the top flight and three of the other five in the top 5 of the second tier. They have the 4th biggest budget in L2 and a decent squad, head coach Alain Perrin took charge at the end of October and has started to work some magic, he has been wildly successful in French management, less so elsewhere, had been in charge of Troyes ( taking them from 4th to top tier and European football in 6 seasons) and at St Etienne/Marseille/Lyon and Sochaux, the latter of which will ensure he has his team really "up" for this. Perrin was busy in the transfer window bringing in some experienced but hungry players and this team looks far removed from the early season version. They have lost two from six, in both defeats they played 70-80 minutes with ten men after an early dismissal, taking 10 points from the other 4 starts ( all wins versus in form opposition). ASNL have provided free entry for all supporters who make the two hour trip to the game this evening which is a fine gesture.Over 750 have already taken up the offer and that is big away support in this league on a Friday night and could make a difference.
Lorient are third, but are coming off a bit of a shocker from last week, a 3-1 home loss to a tired Orleans who had played a Ligue 1 side in the quarter final of the Coupe de France a few days earlier and spent a lot of time on the road travelling to the two games and little preparing for the second. Lorient were three down inside 50 minutes, managing just two attempts on goal all game and with the visitors also being a little wasteful in front of goal ! We might see a reaction from them, but they will need one to get anything here. Nancy have put huge effort into getting out of the bottom three and they will not forfeit that without a fight. Hosts can name the same line up today should they wish, no recognised right back in the Lorient squad again this week and a vulnerability on that flank.
Now they travel to Grenoble who have had a decent first season back in Ligue 2, following promotion last year, but who have been going through the motions recently after a strong start to their campaign.
Five weeks ago I wrote .............
Like Beziers , Grenoble has also hit the buffers following a very good start to life at the higher level and, after collecting 27 points from their first 15 games, they have just 8 from 8 and their only win in 11 starts in league and cup since mid November was against the aforementioned Beziers and they only scored 6 goals in the other 10 outings. They have not won in five home starts and failed to score in 5 of 13 as host, registering more than a single goal only twice and it is very difficult for them to win with those numbers and even when playing well, their game looked far better suited to road games when the onus was not on them to make the running. Grenoble do have 35 points on board, so could still find their way into the post season spots I suppose, but it is quite a while since we saw that level of form from them and it is far more likely that their points tally will allow them to coast and soon start building and planning for 2019-20.
They lost 1-0 at home that day, did win their only subsequent start here, but again, against a struggling/bottom two team, so one win in 7 at home, failing to score in 6 of 15 and just 10 goals in ten starts (one win). Nancy have scored 12 in four, won them all and also hit the woodwork a couple of times, they have a lot of goals in them now, something we are not going to be saying about Grenoble any time soon. Nancy lost the reverse fixture 2-1 back in October, but in terms or the swing in form, that feels like a different season, despite which, Nancy created 17 attempts on goal there despite playing 56 minutes with 10 men, so confidence to take from that and hard not to see them having similar joy today.
Grenoble are without 6 goal winger Malek Chergui ,central midfielder Jessy Benet and suspended defensive midfielder Ryan Sanusi. The last named as been playing as the sole holding player and scored their goal last week in a 1-1 draw with Clermont, Grenoble are winless in the last six starts he has missed, given up an average of 1.85 gpg, just 0.5 in the last four he has started. They are 0-4-5 in the last 9 that Benet has sat out and look hard hit by absences against a confident opponent who are their best form for a couple of seasons.
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Nancy lost that 1-0, but "won" attempts 21-5, inside box 12-3 , they deserved more and thought they were the better team and were good value in that game regardless of result. Nancy look much upgraded , but still need to secure their L2 future and face top 8 teams in their next two starts, so points will be easier to come by this evening. The visitors are without suspended top scorer Florian Raspentino , who has scored four in his last three starts and Valenciennes' goal in the reverse fixture (1-1).
1.75 units Nancy -0.75 ball 2.32 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.75 units "over" 2.75 goals Nancy- Valenciennes 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.
Nancy : Chernik, Ndy Assembe, Paye, Saint-Ruf, El Kaoutari, Seka, Moimbé-Tahrat, Néry, Marchetti, N’Guessan, Poha, Marveaux, Abergel, Bassi, Ngom, Triboulet, Busin, Dembélé, Dalé.
Valenciennes: Konaté, Perquis - Aloé, Bong, Ciss, Cuffaut, Dos Santos, Nestor - Masson, Massouema, Mauricio, Ramaré, Robail, Roudet - Ambri, Cabral, Julan, Romil.
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